Interannual predictability of Arctic sea ice in a global climate model: regional contrasts and temporal evolution

The predictability of the Arctic sea ice is investigated at the interannual time scale using decadal experiments performed within the framework of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project with the CNRM-CM5.1 coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model. The predictability of summer Arctic sea ice extent is found to be weak and not to exceed 2 years. In contrast, robust prognostic potential predictability (PPP) up to several years is found for winter sea ice extent and volume. This predictability is regionally contrasted. The marginal seas in the Atlantic sector and the central Arctic show the highest potential predictability, while the marginal seas in the Pacific sector are barely predictable. The PPP is shown to decrease drastically in the more recent period. Regarding sea ice extent, this decrease is explained by a strong reduction of its natural variability in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas due to the quasi-disappearance of the marginal ice zone in the center of the Greenland Sea. In contrast, the decrease of predictability of sea ice volume arises from the combined effect of a reduction of its natural variability and an increase in its chaotic nature. The latter is attributed to a thinning of sea ice cover over the whole Arctic, making it more sensitive to atmospheric fluctuations. In contrast to the PPP assessment, the prediction skill as measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient is found to be mostly due to external forcing. Yet, in agreement with the PPP assessment, a weak added value of the initialization is found in the Atlantic sector. Nevertheless, the trend-independent component of this skill is not statistically significant beyond the forecast range of 3 months. These contrasted findings regarding potential predictability and prediction skill arising from the initialization suggest that substantial improvements can be made in order to enhance the prediction skill.     

Late Quaternary clay minerals off Middle Vietnam in the western South China Sea: Implications for source analysis and East Asian monsoon evolution

High-resolution clay mineral records combined with oxygen isotopic stratigraphy over the past 450 ka during late Quaternary from Core MD05-2901 off Middle Vietnam in the western South China Sea are re-ported to reconstruct a history of East Asian monsoon evolution. Variations in Illite, chlorite, and kaolinite contents indicate a strong glacial-interglacial cyclicity, while changes in smectite content present a higher frequency cyclicity. The provenance analysis indicates a mixture of individual clay minerals from various sources surrounding the South China Sea. Smectite derived mainly from the Sunda shelf and its major source area of the Indonesian islands. Illite and chlorite originated mainly from the Mekong and Red rivers. Kaolinite was provided mainly by the Pearl River. Spectral analysis of the kaolin-ite/(illite chlorite) ratio displays a strong eccentricity period of 100 ka, implying the ice sheet-forced win-ter monsoon evolution; whereas higher frequency changes in the smectite content show an ice sheet-forced obliquity period of 41 ka, and precession periods of 23 and 19 ka and a semi-precession period of 13 ka as well, implying the tropical-forced summer monsoon evolution. The winter monsoon evolution is generally in coherence with the glacial-interglacial cyclicity, with intensified winter monsoon winds during glacials and weakened winter monsoon winds during interglacials; whereas the summer monsoon evolution provides an almost linear response to the summer insolation of low latitude in the Northern Hemisphere, with strengthened summer monsoon during higher insolation and weakened summer monsoon during lower insolation. The result suggests that the high-latitude ice sheet and low-latitude tropical factor could drive the late Quaternary evolution of East Asian winter and summer monsoons, respectively, implying their diplex and self-contained forcing mechanism.     

The aging of gypsum in underground mines

The aging properties of gypsum extracted from two underground mines in France (Livry–Gargan and Grozon) have been highlighted by means of observation performed using scanning electron microscopy on samples taken along horizontal boreholes drilled through to the middle of several pillars. The aging process is exhibited by the presence of traces of dissolution (edges of the dissolved crystals, corroded crystalline surfaces, important intra- and intercrystalline space). These dissolution figures decrease in number and in intensity from the wall heading towards the middle of the pillar. The “older” pillars display a greater number of dissolution traces than the “more recent” pillars. Then, the role of the aging has been assessed by determining various physical and mechanical parameters on cylindrical samples of 38 mm in diameter and 76 mm in height, machined from the set of drilled boreholes. The following parameters have been quantified: density, grains density, total porosity, porosity accessible to water, intrinsic permeability to nitrogen, velocity of ultrasonic compression and shear waves, dynamic Young's modulus, dynamic Poisson's ratio, uniaxial compressive strength and static Young's modulus. Significant variations in parameter values between the wall and the middle of the pillar were recorded and recognized as being strongly correlated with the intensity of dissolution traces, and hence with gypsum aging.     

Europium isotopic variations in Allende CAIs and the nature of mass-dependent fractionation in the solar nebula

We measured the ¹⁵³Eu/¹⁵¹Eu ratio by MC-ICP-MS for a terrestrial basalt, two terrestrial soils, and four meteorites (whole rocks and/or chondrules of Bjurböle, Forest City, Murchison, and Allende) and found no isotopic variations. By contrast, two CAI separates from two different pieces of Allende show a ¹⁵³Eu deficit of up to one per mil. Such a shortage in the heavy isotopes, which had also been identified in Allende CAIs for Sr [Patchett, P.J. 1980b. Sr isotopic fractionation in Allende chondrules: a reflection of solar nebular processes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett.50, 181-188], cannot reflect evaporative fractionation. The lack of Sm isotope fractionation in the same samples further makes fractionation by purely kinetic processes an unlikely cause of the anomalous Eu isotopic composition. An alternative interpretation is condensation from a vapor already significantly depleted in Eu, but in such a scenario the fate of the missing material is unclear. We therefore prefer yet another interpretation, based on the low ionization potential of Eu (and Sr), in which electromagnetic separation of the ionized gas preferentially depletes the nebular gas in heavy isotopes.     

Achieving a more realistic assessment of rockfall hazards by coupling three‐dimensional process models and field‐based tree‐ring data

Sound knowledge of the spatial and temporal patterns of rockfalls is fundamental for the management of this very common hazard in mountain environments. Process‐based, three‐dimensional simulation models are nowadays capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of rockfall occurrences with reasonable accuracy through the simulation of numerous individual trajectories on highly‐resolved digital terrain models. At the same time, however, simulation models typically fail to quantify the ‘real’ frequency of rockfalls (in terms of return intervals). The analysis of impact scars on trees, in contrast, yields real rockfall frequencies, but trees may not be present at the location of interest and rare trajectories may not necessarily be captured due to the limited age of forest stands. In this article, we demonstrate that the coupling of modeling with tree‐ring techniques may overcome the limitations inherent to both approaches. Based on the analysis of 64 cells (40 m × 40 m) of a rockfall slope located above a 1631‐m long road section in the Swiss Alps, we illustrate results from 488 rockfalls detected in 1260 trees. We illustrate that tree impact data cannot only be used (i) to reconstruct the real frequency of rockfalls for individual cells, but that they also serve (ii) the calibration of the rockfall model Rockyfor3D, as well as (iii) the transformation of simulated trajectories into real frequencies. Calibrated simulation results are in good agreement with real rockfall frequencies and exhibit significant differences in rockfall activity between the cells (zones) along the road section. Real frequencies, expressed as rock passages per meter road section, also enable quantification and direct comparison of the hazard potential between the zones. The contribution provides an approach for hazard zoning procedures that complements traditional methods with a quantification of rockfall frequencies in terms of return intervals through a systematic inclusion of impact records in trees. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interrogating the time and processes of development of the Las Liebres rock glacier,central Chilean Andes,using a numerical flow model

The Las Liebres rock glacier is a large (~2.2 km long) Andean rock glacier whose internal composition and kinematics are known from previous studies. We investigate its development by posing and testing the following null hypothesis: the rock glacier has developed from a constant supply of debris and ground ice in periglacial conditions and resulting creep of the ice‐rock mixture. A rheological model was formulated based on recent advances in the study of ice‐rock mixture rheology, and calibrated on the known surface velocities and internal composition of the rock glacier. We show that the rock glacier viscosity is inversely related to both water and debris fractions, in agreement with recent field and theoretical studies of ice‐rock mixture rheology. Taking into account the possible variations in water fraction, the model was used to estimate the time spans of development (0.91–7.11 ka), rates of rock wall retreat (0.44–4.18 mm/a), and rates of ground ice formation (0.004–0.026 m/a) for the rock glacier. These results support the null hypothesis of a periglacial origin of the Las Liebres rock glacier. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Pleistocene (MIS 3–4) climate inferred from micromammal communities and δO of rodents from Les Pradelles,France

The middle Paleolithic stratigraphic sequence of Les Pradelles (Charente, France) spans from the end of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 4 until the middle of MIS 3. Micromammal remains are present in all the stratigraphic levels, offering a rare opportunity to address the questions of both environmental and climatic fluctuations throughout this period. Climate modes were studied through the taphonomy, biodiversity and oxygen isotope compositions of phosphate (δ¹⁸O_p) from 66 samples of rodent tooth enamel. The δ¹⁸O_p values from the lower sedimentary levels provide summer mean air temperatures of 19 ± 2°C (level 2/1) and of 16 ± 2°C (levels 2A, 2B and 4A). Within the middle of sequence (level 4B), a paleobiodiversity change can be identified with an increase of Dicrostonyx torquatus, which is associated with the largest amplitude in δ¹⁸O_p values and the highest maximal δ¹⁸O_p values. At the top of the sequence (level 5-2), a biodiversity change is observed with the increase of Microtus arvalis, but without any change in δ¹⁸O_p values. The association of cold rodent species with unexpected high and large amplitudes in the δ¹⁸O_p values of their teeth, possibly indicative of aridity, suggests their deposition during a Heinrich event.     

Benthic remineralization at the land–ocean interface: A case study of the Rhône River (NW Mediterranean Sea)

Biogeochemical processes in sediments under the influence of the Rhône River plume were studied using both in situ microelectrodes and ex situ sediment core incubations. Organic carbon (OC) and total nitrogen (TN) content as well as stable carbon isotopic composition of OC (δ¹³C_OC) were analysed in 19 surface sediments to determine the distribution and sources of organic matter in the Rhône delta system. Large spatial variations were observed in both the total O₂ uptake (5.2 to 29.3 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹) and NH₄⁺ release (−0.1 to −3.5 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹) rates at the sediment–water interface. The highest fluxes were measured near the Rhône River mouth where sedimentary OC and TN contents reached 1.81% and 0.23% respectively. Values of δ¹³C_OC ranged from −26.83‰ to −23.88‰ with a significant seawards enrichment tracing the dispersal of terrestrial organic matter on the continental shelf. The amount of terrestrial-derived OC reaches 85% in sediments close to the Rhône mouth decreasing down to 25% in continental shelf sediments. On the prodelta, high terrestrial OC accumulation rates support high oxygen uptake rates and thus indicating that a significant fraction of terrestrial OC is remineralized. A particulate organic carbon (POC) mass balance indicates that only 3% of the deposited POC is remineralized in prodelta sediments while 96% is recycled on the continental shelf. It was calculated that a large proportion of the Rhône POC input is either buried (52%) or remineralized (8%), mostly on the prodelta area. The remaining fraction (40%) is either mineralized in the water or exported outside the Rhône delta system in dissolved or particulate forms.     

Recent contributions of geotechnical centrifuge modelling to the understanding of jack-up spudcan behaviour

The paper presents an overview of the recent contributions of centrifuge modelling to the understanding of soil-structure interaction and the development of design and predictive methods in the field of mobile jack-up drilling rig foundations. Both advantages and limitations of the centrifuge methods are detailed and key examples are presented. The benefits provided by centrifuge modelling to the development of analysis methods that are now being used within the jack-up industry are highlighted. To conclude, industry trends and research opportunities are discussed, as is the possible role of the geotechnical centrifuge in finding solutions to these new needs.     

Panta Rhei 2013–2015: global perspectives on hydrology,society and change

ABSTRACT

In 2013, the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) launched the hydrological decade 2013–2022 with the theme “Panta Rhei: Change in Hydrology and Society”. The decade recognizes the urgency of hydrological research to understand and predict the interactions of society and water, to support sustainable water resource use under changing climatic and environmental conditions. This paper reports on the first Panta Rhei biennium 2013–2015, providing a comprehensive resource that describes the scope and direction of Panta Rhei. We bring together the knowledge of all the Panta Rhei working groups, to summarize the most pressing research questions and how the hydrological community is progressing towards those goals. We draw out interconnections between different strands of research, and reflect on the need to take a global view on hydrology in the current era of human impacts and environmental change. Finally, we look back to the six driving science questions identified at the outset of Panta Rhei, to quantify progress towards those aims.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor not assigned