Population dynamics and natural hazard risk management: conceptual and practical linkages for the case of Austrian policy making

Natural Hazards - This contribution explores the conceptual and empirical linkages between population dynamics and natural hazard risk management (NHRM). Following a review of the international...     

Dynamic expansion points: an extension to Hadjidemetriou’s mapping method

Series expansions are widely used objects in perturbation theory in Celestial Mechanics and Physics in general. Their application nevertheless is limited due to the fact of convergence problems of the series on the one hand and constricted to regions in phase space, where small (expansion) parameters remain small on the other hand. In the mapping case, to overcome the latter problem, e.g., different expansion points are used to cover the whole phase space, resulting in a set of dynamical mappings for one dynamical system. In addition, the accuracy of such expansions depend not only on the order of truncation but also on the definition of the grid of the expansion points in phase space. A simple modification of the usual approach allows to increase the accuracy of the expanded mappings and to cover the whole phase space, where the series converge. Convergence problems due to the nonintegrability of the system can never be ruled out of the system, but the convergence of the series expansions in mapping models, which are convergent can be improved. The underlying idea is based on dynamic expansion points, which are the main subject of this article. As I will show it is possible to derive unique linear mappings, based on dynamically expanded generating functions, for the 3:1 resonance and the coupled standard map, which are valid in their whole phase spaces.     

Potential impact of climate change and reindeer density on tundra indicator species in the Barents Sea region

Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of habitats and thus the distribution of species connected with these habitats in the terrestrial Barents Sea region. It was hypothesised that wild species connected with the tundra and open-land biome may be particularly at risk as forest area expands. Fourteen species of birds were identified as useful indicators for the biodiversity dependent upon this biome. By bringing together species distribution information with the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model, and with estimates of future wild and domestic reindeer density, potential impacts on these species between the present time and 2080 were assessed. Over this period there was a net loss of open land within the current breeding range of most bird species. Grazing reindeer were modelled as increasing the amount of open land retained for nine of the tundra bird species.     

Issues associated with the distinction between climatic and tectonic controls on Permian alluvial fan deposits from the Kotzen and Barnim Basins (North German Basin)

Facies analysis focussing on coarse-grained sediments has been carried out on more than 2500 m of drill cores from seven wells from southern margins of the North German Basin (NGB). The NGB forms a central element of the Southern Permian Basin (SPB). The wells exposed conglomerates and sandstones of the Rotliegend Grüneberg and Parchim Formations deposited in the Kotzen Basin and the Barnim Basin.17 lithofacies types have been grouped into six lithofacies associations. The studied successions are dominated by fluid gravity flow deposits (hyperconcentrated flows and stream flows) of alluvial fan and alluvial plain systems. Maximum particle size/bed thickness plots (MPS/BTh) support the interpretation as fluid gravity flow deposits. The MPS and BTh data have also been used to differentiate coarsening–thickening and fining–thinning trends of the fan systems.The dominance of water-rich mass flow processes together with sedimentary structures such as dewatering structures and outwashed tops suggests the presence of wet-type fans and plains under semi-humid to semi-arid seasonal climates in the central SPB. The investigated sediments show variation in clast composition subsequent to deep erosion processes on basin margins and changes of source areas. Synsedimentary normal faults and clastic dykes have been interpreted as indicators of tectonic activity of grabens itself and its frames. On a larger scale, then evolution from a half-graben to a graben is apparent for the Tuchen Sub-basin at least. The progradational/retrogradational cycles of the studied alluvial fan systems document combined local tectonic movements and influences of climatic changes. However, our data did not allow for a clear distinction between climatic and tectonic signals. Furthermore, a one-to-one correlation of fan cycles with depositional trends in the NGB basin centre would appear to be oversimplistic.     

The relation between Cu/Au ratio and formation depth of porphyry-style Cu–Au ± Mo deposits

Constraints on gold and copper ore grades in porphyry-style Cu–Au ± Mo deposits are re-examined, with particular emphasis on published fluid pressure and formation depth as indicated by fluid inclusion data and geological reconstruction. Defining an arbitrary subdivision at a molar Cu/Au ratio of 4.0 × 10⁴, copper–gold deposits have a shallower average depth of formation (2.1 km) compared with the average depth of copper–molybdenum deposits (3.7 km), based on assumed lithostatic fluid pressure from microthermometry. The correlation of Cu/Au ratio with depth is primarily influenced by the variations of total Au grade. Despite local mineralogical controls within some ore deposits, the overall Cu/Au ratio of the deposits does not show a significant correlation with the predominant type of Cu–Fe sulfide, i.e., chalcopyrite or bornite. Primary magma source probably contributes to metal endowment on the province scale and in some individual deposits, but does not explain the broad correlation of metal ratios with the pressure of ore formation. By comparison with published experimental and fluid analytical data, the observed correlation of the Cu/Au ratio with fluid pressure can be explained by dominant transport of Cu and Au in a buoyant S-rich vapor, coexisting with minor brine in two-phase magmatic hydrothermal systems. At relatively shallow depth (approximately <3 km), the solubility of both metals decreases rapidly with decreasing density of the ascending vapor plume, forcing both Cu and Au to be coprecipitated. In contrast, magmatic vapor cooling at deeper levels (approximately >3 km) and greater confining pressure is likely to precipitate copper ± molybdenum only, while sulfur-complexed gold remains dissolved in the relatively dense vapor. Upon cooling, this vapor may ultimately contract to a low-salinity epithermal liquid, which can contribute to the formation of epithermal gold deposits several kilometers above the Au-poor porphyry Cu–(Mo) deposit. These findings and interpretations imply that petrographic inspection of fluid inclusion density may be used as an exploration indicator. Low-pressure brine + vapor systems are favorable for coprecipitation of both metals, leading to Au-rich porphyry–copper–gold deposits. Epithermal gold deposits may be associated with such shallow systems, but are likely to derive their ore-forming components from a deeper source, which may include a deeply hidden porphyry–copper ± molybdenum deposit. Exposed high-pressure brine + vapor systems, or stockwork veins containing a single type of intermediate-density inclusions, are more likely to be prospective for porphyry–copper ± molybdenum deposits.     

Structural evolution and strike-slip tectonics off north-western Sumatra

Based on new multi-channel seismic data, swath bathymetry, and sediment echosounder data we present a model for the interaction between strike-slip faulting and forearc basin evolution off north-western Sumatra between 2°N and 7°N. We examined seismic sequences and sea floor morphology of the Simeulue- and Aceh forearc basins and the adjacent outer arc high. We found that strike-slip faulting has controlled the forearc basin evolution since the Late Miocene. The Mentawai Fault Zone extends up to the north of Simeulue Island and was most probably connected farther northwards to the Sumatran Fault Zone until the end of the Miocene. Since then, this northern branch jumped westwards, initiating the West Andaman Fault in the Aceh area. The connection to the Mentawai Fault Zone is a left-hand step-over. In this transpressional setting the Tuba Ridge developed. We found a right-lateral strike-slip fault running from the conjunction of the West Andaman Fault and the Tuba Ridge in SSW-direction crossing the outer arc high. As a result, extrusion formed a marginal basin north of Simeulue Island which is tilted eastwards by uplift along a thrust fault in the west. The shift of strike-slip movement in the Aceh segment is accompanied by a relocation of the depocenter of the Aceh Basin to the northwest, forming one major Neogene unconformity. The Simeulue Basin bears two major Neogene unconformities, documenting that differences in subsidence evolution along the northern Sumatran margin are linked to both forearc-evolution related to subduction processes and to deformation along major strike-slip faults.     

Advanced Fresnel X-ray telescopes for spectroscopic imaging

We present an effective achromatic imaging technique for diffraction-limited X-ray telescopes. For a common focal length, independent optical sections of the aperture are dedicated to two or more spectral bands and optimized with respect to their efficiency. For this purpose, we introduce the “achromatic gain” of an X-ray hybrid lens. Large-scale segmented and nested apertures provide a promising implementation of that scheme. An optimized numerical example and astrophysical simulations prove its capabilities for an energy range between 6 and 16 keV.     

Winter synoptic-scale variability over the Mediterranean Basin under future climate conditions as simulated by the ECHAM5

Changes of the winter climate in the Mediterranean Basin (MB) for future A2 conditions are investigated for the period 2071–2100 and compared with the control period 1961–1990. The analysis is based on time-slice simulations of the latest version of the ECHAM model. First, the control simulation is evaluated with reanalysis data. The emphasis is given to synoptic and large-scale features and their variability in the MB. The model is found to be capable of reproducing the main features of the MB and southern Europe in the winter season. Second, the A2 simulation is compared with the control simulation, revealing considerable changes of the synoptic variability. Focusing on the synoptic spatio-temporal scale aims to unfold the dynamic background of the climatic changes. The Mediterranean cyclones, which are individually detected and tracked, decrease by 10% in the Western Mediterranean (WM) whereas no significant change is found in the Eastern Mediterranean. The cyclone intensity is slightly reduced in the entire region. To understand these changes, the underlying dynamical background is analyzed. It is found that changes in baroclinicity, static stability, transformation from eddy kinetic energy to kinetic energy of the mean flow and stationary wave activity are significant in particular in the WM and the coastline of North Africa. The reduction of cyclonic activity severely impacts the precipitation mainly in the southern part of the WM.     

10Be and 26Al exposure‐age dating of bedrock surfaces on the Aran ridge,Wales: evidence for a thick Welsh Ice Cap at the Last Glacial Maximum

This paper presents results of the analysis of paired cosmogenic isotopes (¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al) from eight quartz‐rich samples collected from ice‐moulded bedrock on the Aran ridge, the highest land in the British Isles south of Snowdon. On the Aran ridge, comprising the summits of Aran Fawddwy (905 m a.s.l.) and Aran Benllyn (885 m a.s.l.), ²⁶Al and ¹⁰Be ages indicate complete ice coverage and glacial erosion at the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Six samples from the summit ridge above 750–800 m a.s.l. yielded paired ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al ages ranging from 17.2 to 34.4 ka, respectively. Four of these samples are very close in age (¹⁰Be ages of 17.5 ± 0.6, 17.5 ± 0.7, 19.7 ± 0.8 and 20.0 ± 0.7 ka) and are interpreted as representing the exposure age of the summit ridge. Two other summit samples are much older (¹⁰Be ages of 27.5 ± 1.0 and 33.9 ± 1.2 ka) and these results may indicate nuclide inheritance. The ²⁶Al/¹⁰Be ratios for all samples are indistinguishable within one‐sigma uncertainty from the production rate ratio line, indicating that there is no evidence for a complex exposure history. These results indicate that the last Welsh Ice Cap was thick enough to completely cover the Aran ridge and achieve glacial erosion at the LGM. However, between c. 20 and 17 ka ridge summits were exposed as nunataks at a time when glacial erosion at lower elevations (below 750–800 m a.s.l.) was achieved by large outlet glaciers in the valleys surrounding the mountains. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deciphering signals of late Holocene fluvial and aeolian supply from a shelf sediment depocentre off Senegal (north‐west Africa)

High‐resolution climatic records of the late Holocene along the north‐west African continental margin are scarce. Here we combine sediment grain size, elemental distribution and mineral assemblage data to trace dust and riverine sources at a shallow‐marine sediment depocentre in the vicinity of the Senegal River mouth. The aim is to understand how these terrigenous components reflect climate variability during the late Holocene. Major element contents were measured and mineral identification was performed on three sub‐fractions of our sediment core: (i) fluvial material < 2 µm, (ii) aeolian material of 18–63 µm and (iii) a sub‐fraction of dual‐origin material of 2–18 µm. Results show that more than 80% of the total Al and Fe terrigenous bulk content is present in the fluviogenic fraction. In contrast, Ti, K and Si cannot be considered as proxies for one specific source off Senegal. The Al/Ca ratio, recording the continental river runoff, reveals two dry periods from 3010 to 2750 cal a BP and from 1900 to 1000 cal a BP, and two main humid periods from 2750 to 1900 cal a BP and from 1000 to 700 cal a BP. The match between (i) intervals of low river runoff inferred by low Al/Ca values, (ii) reduced river discharge inferred by integrated palynological data from offshore Senegal and (iii) periods of enhanced dune reactivation in Mali confirms this interpretation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.