Long-term spatio-temporal social vulnerability variation considering health-related climate change parameters particularly affecting elderly

For assessing the social dimension of vulnerability, population exposure mapping is usually considered the essential starting point. Integration of social structure then further differentiates situation-specific vulnerability patterns on a local scale. Census data available in heterogeneous spatial reference units are still considered the standard information input for assessing potentially affected people, for example, in case of an emergency. There is a strong demand for population data in homogeneous spatial units that are independent from administrative areas. Raster representations meet this demand but are not yet available for all European countries. In this paper, we present an approach of spatial disaggregation of population data for a European transect referring to current population statistics and anticipated future prospects. Recently published data providing the degree of soil sealing are applied as basic proxy for population density in the spatial disaggregation model. In order to assess future patterns of climate change-related vulnerability, results of a European regional climate model are considered for projecting the situation in the 2030s. “Heat wave frequency” is accounted for as climate variable featuring conditions regarded as especially strenuous for elderly or physically weak persons. Integrated analysis of the population and climate prospects enables identification of hot spots in the European transect examined, that is, regions of particularly demanding projected climatic patterns as well as high population density and case-specific vulnerable structure (elderly people). Integrated and consistent spatial analyses on European scale are essential for decision support in the context of climate change impact mitigation as well as for risk communication and future safety and security considerations.     

The Stable Atmospheric Boundary Layer over an Antarctic ice Sheet

Turbulence measurements up to 11-m height and longterm profile measurements up to 45-m height performed at the German Neumayer Station in Antarctica are used to investigate different components of turbulence closure schemes of the stable boundary layer. The results confirm the linear relationships for the universal functions of momentum and heat exchange in the stability range z/L < 0.8 ... 1, whereas the local scaling approach should be used above the surface layer. Furthermore, boundary-layer heights below 50 m are frequently observed at this coastal Antarctic site, mainly due to the influence of stability above the boundary layer. It is shown that the inclusion of this stability into parametrization relations is necessary to provide realistic equilibrium heights of the stable boundary layer. Two relations, based on different physical approaches, were successfully applied for the parametrization of the equilibrium height.