Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Eastern Marmara Region

The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard in Eastern Marmara Region using an improved probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology. Two significant improvements over the previous seismic hazard assessment practices are accomplished in this study: advanced seismic source characterization models in terms of source geometry and recurrence relationships are developed, and improved global ground motion models (NGA-W1 models) are employed to represent the ground motion variability. Planar fault segments are defined and a composite magnitude distribution model is used for all seismic sources in the region to properly represent the characteristic behavior of the North Anatolian Fault without the need for an additional background zone. Multi-segment ruptures are considered using the rupture model proposed by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (2003). Events in the earthquake catalogue are attributed to the fault zones and scenario weights are determined by releasing the accumulated seismic energy. The uniform hazard spectra at 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years hazard level for different soil conditions (soil and rock) are revealed for specific locations in the region (Adapazar?, Düzce, Gemlik, Izmit, Iznik and Sapanca). Hazard maps of the region for rock site conditions at the selected hazard levels are provided to allow the readers perform site-specific hazard assessment and develop site-specific design spectrum for local site conditions.     

Accuracy of the half-power bandwidth method with a third-order correction for estimating damping in multi-DOF systems

A third-order correction was recently suggested to improve the accuracy of the half-power bandwidth method in estimating the damping of single DOF systems.This paper analyzes the accuracy of the half-power bandwidth method with the third-order correction in damping estimation for multi-DOF linear systems.Damping ratios in a two-DOF linear system are estimated using its displacement and acceleration frequency response curves,respectively.A wide range of important parameters that characterize the shape of these response curves are taken into account.Results show that the third-order correction may greatly improve the accuracy of the half-power bandwidth method in estimating damping in a two-DOF system.In spite of this,the half-power bandwidth method may significantly overestimate the damping ratios of two-DOF systems in some cases.     

Energetic Charged Particles Above Thunderclouds

The French government has committed to launch the satellite TARANIS to study transient coupling processes between the Earth’s atmosphere and near-Earth space. The prime objective of TARANIS is to detect energetic charged particles and hard radiation emanating from thunderclouds. The British Nobel prize winner C.T.R. Wilson predicted lightning discharges from the top of thunderclouds into space almost a century ago. However, new experiments have only recently confirmed energetic discharge processes which transfer energy from the top of thunderclouds into the upper atmosphere and near-Earth space; they are now denoted as transient luminous events, terrestrial gamma-ray flashes and relativistic electron beams. This meeting report builds on the current state of scientific knowledge on the physics of plasmas in the laboratory and naturally occurring plasmas in the Earth’s atmosphere to propose areas of future research. The report specifically reflects presentations delivered by the members of a novel Franco-British collaboration during a meeting at the French Embassy in London held in November 2011. The scientific subjects of the report tackle ionization processes leading to electrical discharge processes, observations of transient luminous events, electromagnetic emissions, energetic charged particles and their impact on the Earth’s atmosphere. The importance of future research in this area for science and society, and towards spacecraft protection, is emphasized.     

Analysing Debris-Flow Impact Models, Based on a Small Scale Modelling Approach

The objective of this study is to analyse adaptable debris-flow impact models, which are very important for mitigation measurements and buildings using their sphere of influence. For this reason, 16 debris-flow experiments, on a small-scale modelling approach, were performed. Impact forces were measured with a force plate panel, consisting of 24 aluminium devices, coaxially mounted with resistance strain gauges. Flow velocities, flow heights as well as horizontal impact forces were sampled with a frequency of 2.4 kHz. Sub datasets of sampled raw force data were defined by applying an average median filter, a low-pass filter routine. Further, estimated peak pressure values as well as empirical coefficients of hydraulic impact models were compared, and the influence of signal processing is discussed.     

Possible climate change/variability and human impacts,vulnerability of drought-prone regions,water resources and capacity building for Africa

ABSTRACT

This review article discusses the climate, water resources and historical droughts of Africa, drought indices, vulnerability, impact of global warming and land use for drought-prone regions in West, southern and the Greater Horn of Africa, which have suffered recurrent severe droughts in the past. Recent studies detected warming and drying trends in Africa since the mid 20th century. Based on the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), both northern and southern Africa are projected to experience drying, such as decreasing precipitation, runoff and soil moisture in the 21st century and could become more vulnerable to the impact of droughts. The daily maximum temperature is projected to increase by up to 8°C (RCP8.5 of CMIP5), precipitation indices such as total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10 mm) could decrease, while warm spell duration (WSDI) and consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase. Uncertainties of the above long-term projections, teleconnections to climate anomalies such as ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which could also affect the water resources of Africa, and capacity building in terms of physical infrastructure and non-structural solutions are also discussed. Given that traditional climate and hydrological data observed in Africa are generally limited, satellite data should also be exploited to fill the data gap for Africa in the future.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor N. Ilich     

On the impossibility of mean-field dynamos with some spherical symmetry of the motions

Abstract

A spherical mean-field dynamo model is considered in which both the mean motion and the mean electro-motive force due to fluctuating motions show some spherical symmetry. It is shown that under some reasonable assumptions the magnetic field is bound to decay to zero.     

Separation of deterministic signals using independent component analysis (ICA)

Independent Component Analysis (ICA) represents a higher-order statistical technique that is often used to separate mixtures of stochastic random signals into statistically independent sources. Its benefit is that it only relies on the information contained in the observations, i.e. no parametric a-priori models are prescribed to extract the source signals. The mathematical foundation of ICA, however, is rooted in the theory of random signals. This has led to questions whether the application of ICA to deterministic signals can be justified at all? In this context, the possibility of using ICA to separate deterministic signals such as complex sinusoidal cycles has been subjected to previous studies. In many geophysical and geodetic applications, however, understanding long-term trend in the presence of periodical components of an observed phenomenon is desirable. In this study, therefore, we extend the previous studies with mathematically proving that the ICA algorithm with diagonalizing the 4th order cumulant tensor, through the rotation of experimental orthogonal functions, will indeed perfectly separate an unknown mixture of trend and sinusoidal signals in the data, provided that the length of the data set is infinite. In other words, we justify the application of ICA to those deterministic signals that are most relevant in geodetic and geophysical applications.     

Comparison of an Electrochemical and Luminescence‐Based Oxygen Measuring System for Use in the Biodegradability Testing According to Closed Bottle Test (OECD 301D)

The effects of persistent organic pollutants on the aquatic environment still can hardly be assessed. Therefore, ready biodegradability is a desired key characteristic of chemicals. Accordingly, biodegradation testing is of utmost importance and is a vital part within the risk assessment for organic chemicals. In the closed bottle test (CBT; OECD 301D) the degree of biological degradation of a chemical is assessed by monitoring the oxygen consumption so far with a Clark electrode as standard method. However, this method is time‐consuming, laborious and led to frequent fluctuations of the test results, which limited their validity. Due to these shortcomings, an optical system that enables contact‐free measuring of the oxygen concentration in a closed bottle, based on dynamic luminescence quenching, was examined. The test results were compared to those obtained with the “classical” electrochemical technique (Clark electrode). At first, a basic standard for the handling of the new instrument in the laboratory was developed. Then possible influencing factors, reliability, comparability, and reproducibility of the test results were investigated by running the CBTs in parallel with the electrode and optode method. The findings proved the new optode method to be unambiguously superior to the electrode technique. The frequency of fluctuations of the test results and time and effort necessary for the test run could considerably be reduced. The degradation kinetics of the test substances could be followed easily in the CBT by increasing the measuring points without much additional effort.     

Utilizing Natural Liner Materials for Heavy Metal Removal in Simulated Landfill Conditions

Inorganic industrial waste landfills have the potential to contaminate subsurface groundwater supplies through migration of leachates down to the water table and into groundwater aquifers, despite the use of compacted low permeability clay or polyethene liners. This paper aims the removal of Cu²⁺ and Zn²⁺ in the leachate from an industrial waste landfill using natural materials (natural zeolite, expanded vermiculite, pumice, illite, kaolinite, and bentonite) as a liner material. Cu²⁺ and Zn²⁺ concentrations for all treatments decreased during the process. Of all the different natural materials, natural zeolite, expanded vermiculite and pumice, with bentonite, were effective in removing Cu²⁺ and Zn²⁺ present in the leachate. However, the use of illite and kaolinite with bentonite as liner materials could be of disadvantage in Cu²⁺ and Zn²⁺ removal from leachate. The adsorption kinetic models were also tested for the validity. The second order kinetics with the high correlation coefficients best described adsorption kinetic data.     

Reliable Procedure for Molecular Analysis of Airborne Microflora in Three Indoor Environments: An Office and Two Different Museum Contexts

Biological aerosols from air constitute a significant source of exposure to microorganisms in public places. Airborne microorganisms are involved in the development of certain respiratory symptoms, allergies, or infections among users and occupants. Various sampling instruments have commonly been used in aerobiology to collect bacteria and fungi suspended in the air. The objective of this study was to develop a reliable procedure for sampling in indoor public environments presenting different levels of occupancy, airborne bacteria and fungi to be subjected to molecular analysis (bacteria and fungi quantitative PCR, capillary electrophoresis single strand conformation polymorphism fingerprinting). Four different sampling devices were tested in situ in an office building (open‐plan type) and the sampling strategy chosen was tested in two museum contexts. In accordance with the drawbacks involved to our study (quantitative and qualitative aspects, cost, and overcrowding), cyclone device appeared to be most suitable. The results underline the effectiveness of this high‐volume aerosol sampling device for both qualitative and quantitative molecular analysis. Four in situ sampling collections were carried out in 1 day in the Louvre Museum to study quantitative and qualitative variations of airborne bacterial and fungal diversity. The quantitative results revealed a similar order of magnitude for the numbers of both bacteria and fungi. In the Louvre Museum, the samples yielded between 3.7 × 10⁴ and 4.1 × 10⁴ genome equivalent (GE) bacteria/m³ air and between 5.0 × 10⁴ and 5.9 × 10⁴ GE fungi/m³ air and in the Decorative Arts Museum between, 2.1 × 10⁴ and 2.5 × 10⁴ GE bacteria/m³ air and between 1.4 × 10⁴ and 1.7 × 10⁴ GE fungi/m³ air. The results also indicate that the dominant bacterial community displayed a stable structure over a short period of time whereas dominant eukaryotic airborne community appeared more variable.