A One-dimensional Ensemble Forecast and Assimilation System for Fog Prediction

A probabilistic fog forecast system was designed based on two high resolution numerical 1-D models called COBEL and PAFOG. The 1-D models are coupled to several 3-D numerical weather prediction models and thus are able to consider the effects of advection. To deal with the large uncertainty inherent to fog forecasts, a whole ensemble of 1-D runs is computed using the two different numerical models and a set of different initial conditions in combination with distinct boundary conditions. Initial conditions are obtained from variational data assimilation, which optimally combines observations with a first guess taken from operational 3-D models. The design of the ensemble scheme computes members that should fairly well represent the uncertainty of the current meteorological regime. Verification for an entire fog season reveals the importance of advection in complex terrain. The skill of 1-D fog forecasts is significantly improved if advection is considered. Thus the probabilistic forecast system has the potential to support the forecaster and therefore to provide more accurate fog forecasts.     

Subsidence history and forming mechanism of anomalous tectonic subsidence in the Bozhong depression, Bohaiwan basin

The Bozhong depression of the Bohaiwan basin belongs to a family of extensional basins in East China, but is quite different from other parts of the basin. The Cenozoic subsidence of the depression is controlled by a combination of lithospheric thinning and polycyclic strike-slip movements. Three episodic rifts have been identified, i.e. Paleocence-early Eocene, middle-late Eocene and Oligocene age. The depression underwent syn-rift and post-rift stages, but two episodic dextral movement events of the strike-slip faults modify the subsidence of the Bozhong depression since the Oligocene. The early dextral movement of the Tan-Lu fault associated with crustal extension resulted in accelerated subsidence during the time of deposition of the Dongying Formation with a maximum thickness of 4000 m. A late reactivation of dextral movement of the Tan-Lu fault began in late Miocene (about 12 Ma), which resulted in the intense subsidence of Minghuazhen Formation and Quaternary. In addition, dynamic mantle convection-driven topography also accelerated the post-rift anomalous subsidence since the Miocene (24.6 Ma). Our results indicate that the primary control on rapid subsidence both during the rift and post-rift stages in the Bozhong depression originates from a combination of multiple episodic crustal extension and polycyclic dextral movements of strike-slip faults, and dynamic topography.     

Continuous,Direct Gas-Geochemical Monitoring in Hydrothermal Vents: Installation and Long-Term Operation on Nisyros Island (Greece)

In this paper the installation and long-term operation of a system for continuous monitoring of fumarolic gases is described. Several physicochemical and gas-geochemical parameters such as the concentration of CO₂, H₂S and CO in the fumarolic emissions, as well as the temperatures of the hydrothermal steam and soil in close vicinity of the fumarole and steam pressure are measured in short-time intervals (typically 15 seconds). Data are logged on-site and in parallel transferred to a remote station by digital telemetry. Specially developed software enables the real-time observation of the local conditions in the crater and full bidirectional control of the monitoring system. Fluctuations in the monitored parameters are also reported. From the data presented it can be concluded that environmental conditions (direction and strength of wind, precipitation) will interact with some of the parameters monitored. These influences can only be revealed by continuously operated monitoring systems.     

Estimation Of Sensible Heat Flux From The Surface Temperature Wave And One-Time-Of-Day Air Temperature Observation, Part Ii – Heterogeneous Surfaces

By means of the algorithm presented in Part I of this study, the temporal course H(t) and the daily mean H of the sensible heat flux H can be determined from measurements of the thermodynamic surface temperature (as a function of time) and from a one-time-of-day air temperature observation. Inaddition to these temperatures, one needs estimates of daily mean wind speed,of the roughness lengths of momentum and heat transfer, and of the displacementheight. In Part I, the algorithm was derived for areas with homogeneous surfaces,i.e., with uniform surface temperature, and the method was verified with measurements taken during several field campaigns. The root mean square error for the temperature difference between surface and air, in the comparison between measurement and model, amounted to one or two kelvin, and the error of H was 10 to 25 per cent. The method can be used to determine the sensible heat flux from measurements of surface temperatures by satellites, but can also be applied to ground based measurements.In Part II, the procedure is generalized for areas that consist of various surface types (sub-regions) with different surface temperatures, and can be usedwhen only a few (at least one) air temperature measurements per day are available over only one of the different sub-regions. This generalization should allow improvements to the estimates for H(t) by means of temperature measurements from, e.g., NOAA/AVHRR or LANDSAT/TM, taking into account the heterogeneity of the area contained in one METEOSAT pixel. Criteria are given as to whether effective (areal mean) surface temperatures and roughness lengths may be used for the computation of H or if the above mentioned generalized procedure has to be applied. The new algorithm is verified by measurements sampled during the field campaigns EFEDA 91 (Spain) and HIBE 89 (Hildesheimer Börde in Germany), and by using synthetic data (due to the lack of measured data) for one further combined surfacetype [soil and water (lakes)].     

Effects of land-surface heterogeneity upon surface fluxes and turbulent conditions

Summary In this paper, we examine the effects of land-surface heterogeneity on the calculation of surface-energy and momentum fluxes in a meso-scale atmospheric model. A series of numerical experiments has been carried out with a combination of different resolutions for the atmosphere and the land surface, which allows an examination of the aggregation and dynamic effects associated with land-surface heterogeneity. The numerical results show that for a given atmospheric model resolution, increased land-surface resolution leads to better estimates of surface-energy and momentum fluxes, and for a given land-surface resolution, increased atmospheric model resolution also improves the estimates of these fluxes. This latter result contradicts the prevailing view that subgrid variation in atmospheric data plays only a minor role in estimating the fluxes. It is also shown that subgrid land-surface heterogeneity leads to increased turbulent fluctuations. The responsible mechanisms of this effect are both the subgrid variation of surface-energy fluxes and their impact upon the development of convective cells. It is suggested that subgrid atmospheric motions induced by surface heterogeneity may be an important factor which needs to be considered in subgrid closure schemes for atmospheric models. Received August 28, 2000/Revised June 1, 2001     

Sea level pressure patterns associated with dry or wet monthly rainfall conditions in Turkey

Summary  Monthly rainfall totals at 7 stations across Turkey and sea level pressure (SLP) in 16 grid points in the region delimited by the 20° E and 50° E longitudes and by the 30° N and 45° N latitudes were analysed. Data were available for a period longer than sixty years. The standard deviations of SLP at each grid point for each month, were calculated and mapped. For each station, months were defined as dry or wet according to their z scores: ≤ −1.0 or ≥ 1.0 respectively. Maps showing the SLP z scores of the corresponding dry or wet months for each station were prepared. The maps, enable to distinguish between SLP patterns associated with dry or wet conditions. Furthermore, correlations between monthly rainfall in each of the stations and SLP at each grid point were performed. The correlation coefficients were mapped. (a) The variability of the SLP decreases from the Balkans towards the Arabian Peninsula and is much larger in winter as compared with summer. (b) Relationship between rainfall in Turkey and the regional SLP is large in winter and non existing in summer. (c) Pressure patterns associated with dry conditions, show usually positive SLP departures, whereas, pressure patterns associated with wet conditions show usually negative SLP departures. (d) There is a great resemblance between pressure patterns associated with wet conditions and correlation maps of the same months. Received September 4, 2000 Revised January 15, 2001     

Microtremor Measurements for the Microzonation of Dinar

v--vThe geotechnical site conditions in Dinar town located in western Turkey were investigated after the 1995 Dinar earthquake based on borings, in situ penetration tests, seismic wave velocity measurements, and microtremor records. The variation of damage distribution within the town was evaluated with respect to 23 district damage ratios calculated, based on the detailed damage survey conducted by the General Directorate of Disaster Affairs. Site amplifications were estimated from microtremor spectral ratios and microzonation was performed using a GIS methodology. The results of in situ penetration tests and seismic wave velocity measurements as well as the damage distribution were compared with the amplification zonation obtained from microtremor records. The results indicate the applicability of microtremor spectral ratios for assessing the local site conditions and site amplifications.     

Determination of Geopotential Differences between Local Vertical Datums and Realization of a World Height System

The methodology developed for connecting Local Vertical Datums (LVD) was applied to the Australian Height Datum (AHD) and the North American Vertical Datum (NAVD88). The geopotential values at AHD and NAVD88 were computed and the corresponding vertical offset of 974 mm with rms 51 mm was obtained between the zero reference surfaces defined by AHD and NAVD88. The solution is based on the four primary geodetic parameters, the GPS/levelling sites and the geopotential model EGM96. The Global Height System (or the Major Vertical Datum) can be defined by a geoidal geopotential value used in the solution as the reference value, or by the geopotential value of the LVD, e.g. NAVD88.