Education as a determinant of fertility: a case study of Kullu Town

Using a sample of 885 females (1/2 of all married women of reproductive age), this study examines the role of education as a determinant of fertility among couples in Kullu town of Himachol Pradesh, India. Of the 885 respondents, only 149 were illiterate. The average family size was 2.88. Findings reveal that 1) the average family size was largest for illiterate respondents (3.57) and for illiterate males (3.76); 2) average family size declined consistently after the middle level of education to 1.29 for post graduate respondents and 2.33 for post graduate males; 3) a negative correlation exists between fertility and education of both husband and wife, with the wife's education having a stronger negative correlation with fertility; and 4) couples with an educational level of matriculation and above have a distinctly smaller family size than those less educated.     

Multiforced statistical assessments of greenhouse-gas-induced surface air temperature change 1890–1985

Based on univariate correlation and coherence analyses and considering the physical basis of the relationships, a simple multiforced (multiple) statistical concept is used which correlates observational climatic time series simultaneously with volcanic, solar, ENSO, and the anthropogenic greenhouse gases forcing. This is appropriate to remove some natural climate noise in the observed data and to evaluate the components (signals) possibly due to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (CO₂, or equivalent CO₂ implying additional gases) during industrial time. In this paper, we apply this technique to 100 global box data time series 1890–1985, of the surface air temperature, using observed data from Hansen and Lebedeff. The results are presented in terms of latitudinal-seasonal and regional trends, where the observed trend patterns are compared with the hypothetical signals (statistical assessments) possibly due to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. These latter signals can be amplified to enable a comparison with corresponding results from general circulation model (GCM) CO₂ doubling experiments. These observed-statistical assessments lead to results which are, at least qualitatively and in respect to the zonal mean temperatures, very similar to some GCM experiments indicating the maximum CO₂ doubling signals (statistical assessment > 12 K) in the arctic winter. However, these signals are moderate in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere (global average 2.8–4.4 K). As far as the industrial signals are concerned (observed period) these signals are somewhat larger (maximum 7 K, global average 0.5–0.9 K) than the observed trends (maximum 5 K, global average 0.5 K). Phase shifts of cause and effect may amplify these signals but are very uncertain.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

The nature and significance of the feedback of changes in terrestrial vegetation on global atmospheric and climatic change

The potential feedback on global atmospheric and climate change of climate-driven changes in terrestrial vegetation is examined by systematically relating the surface exchanges of energy, mass and momentum to two dimensions of vegetation, structure and taxonomy, such that the significance of climate driven changes in these characteristics can be assessed. A detailed quantitative understanding of this feedback is an important prerequisite to realistic and dynamic representations of the Earth's surface within general circulation and biological models (GCMs and GBMs). Without realistic representations of terrestrial vegetation within these models, any forecasts of future climates by these models must be suspect.Several general conclusions are drawn. The first is that the indirect feedbacks, those associated with the clouds and aerosols of the planetary boundary layer, appear to be very powerful but as yet their behaviour and connections with the underlying surface are both poorly understood and captured within GCMs.The physical structure of vegetation, the disposition of biomass in 3-D, is the characteristic that most strongly influences the exchange of momentum (via aerodynamic roughness) and solar radiation (via albedo). Vegetation structure and species composition determine the most important of the mass exchanges, evapotranspiration. Of all of the surface exchanges, the parameterization of evapotranspiration (E ) and the simulation of the water balance over time is the most critical.Lastly, the problems of scaling and spatial heterogeneity, the sub-grid variability of the modellers, looms as a difficult, but not insoluble, problem. It remains a critical problem however, and the detailed parameterization of the various big leaf models stands in absurd contrast to the simplistic generalization of the spatial heterogeneity of terrestrial landscapes.Plant ecologists can contribute to the task of improving the representation of vegetated landscapes within GCMs. There is need to simply and unify the way in which vegetation can be grouped at landscape scales. A classification that is based on function rather than phylogeny is required. The definition of Vegetation Functional Types (VFTs) would expedite research on both the impact of, and feedback on, climate change.     

Diffuse radiation,twilight, and photochemistry — I

A photochemical scheme which includes a detailed treatment of multiple scattering up to solar zenith angles of 96° (developed for use in a GCM) has been used to study partitioning within chemical families. Attention is drawn to the different zenith angle dependence of diffuse radiation for the two spectral regions <310 nm and >310 nm. The effect that this has on the so-called 40 km ozone problem is discussed. The importance of correctly including multiple scattering for polar ozone studies is emphasised.     

Flow directions in ash-flow tuffs: a comparison of geological and magnetic susceptibility measurements, Tshirege member (upper Bandelier Tuff), Valles caldera, New Mexico, USA

This study concludes that the elongation axis (K ₁) of the ellipsoid of anisotropic magnetic susceptibility (AMS) is a suitable proxy for flow axis in ashflow tuffs. 153 oriented samples (176 specimens) were studied from 18 sites in the 1.1 Ma Tshirege member of the Bandelier Tuff. These sites are distributed around the Valles caldera at distances of 5–25 km outside of the rim.K ₁ axes correlate well with postulated radial flow axes at 13 sites.K ₁ also agrees with measured geological flow indicators, mainly imbricated larger clasts, at 7 sites. At 2 of the 5 sites where significant disagreement is seen between theoretical radial flow directions and measuredK ₁ axes, theK ₁ axes correspond well with geological flow indicators, indicating that the divergence of flow from the predicted radial flow pattern is real. Two major topographic buttresses are suggested as the cause of flow divergence for the Tshirege ash flows: the San Pedro buttress northwest of the caldera, and the San Miguel buttress in the southeast. In situK ₁ axes plunge about 7° toward the source at two-thirds of the sites; therefore the plunge ofK ₁ is a plausible in situ indicator for thedirection of flow. Multiple flow zones in sections of several meters thickness indicate changes of flow direction that are both rapid and large during ash-flow emplacement. These observations raisre the question of how best to represent mean flow directions in ash-flow sheets: by eigenvector methods, by vector-sum methods, or by modes. A method for measuring imbrication of larger clasts using apparent dips in vertical joints is outlined. Imbrication, determined in this way at one-third of the sites, dips toward the source, i.e., up-flow. The minimum (K ₃) axis of the AMS ellipsoid correlates with the flow foliation rather than with the larger clast imbrication. The flow axes of ash flows correspond with theK ₁ axes, not with the declination ofK ₃ axes as suggested by some authors. Initial dip of the sampled ash flows is not large and does not affect the paleomagnetic remanence direction, which is reversed with a mean ofD=173.5°,I=-38.4°, ₉₅=3.4°N=18. This mean is not different at the 95% confidence level from that of earlier workers. The mean pole, at 098.0°E, 74.8°N,A ₉₅=3.3°,N=18, is about 15° far-sided relative to the expected time-averaged geomagnetic pole, suggesting a history of emplacement too short to adequately average secular variation.     

Anelasticity of the crust and upper mantle beneath north and central India from the inversion of observed Love and Rayleigh wave attenuation data

The fundamental mode Love and Rayleigh waves generated by earthquakes occurring in Kashmir, Nepal Himalaya, northeast India and Burma and recorded at Hyderabad, New Delhi and Kodaikanal seismic stations are analysed. Love and Rayleigh wave attenuation coefficients are obtained at time periods of 15–100 seconds, using the spectral amplitude of these waves for 23 different paths along northern (across Burma to New Delhi) and central (across Kashmir, Nepal Himalaya and northeast India to Hyderabad and Kodaikanal) India. Love wave attenuation coefficients are found to vary from 0.0003 to 0.0022 km^–1 for northern India and 0.00003 km^–1 to 0.00016 km^–1 for central India. Similarly, Rayleigh wave attenuation coefficients vary from 0.0002 km^–1 to 0.0016 km^–1 for northern India and 0.00001 km^–1 to 0.0009 km^–1 for central India. Backus and Gilbert inversion theory is applied to these surface wave attenuation data to obtainQ ^–1 models for the crust and uppermost mantle beneath northern and central India. Inversion of Love and Rayleigh wave attenuation data shows a highly attenuating zone centred at a depth of 20–80 km with lowQ for northern India. Similarly, inversion of Love and Rayleigh wave attenuation data shows a high attenuation zone below a depth of 100 km. The inferred lowQ value at mid-crustal depth (high attenuating zone) in the model for northern India can be by underthrusting of the Indian plate beneath the Eurasian plate which has caused a low velocity zone at this shallow depth. The gradual increase ofQ ^–1 from shallow to deeper depth shows that the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary is not sharply defined beneath central India, but rather it represents a gradual transformation, which starts beneath the uppermost mantle. The lithospheric thickness is 100 km beneath central India and below that the asthenosphere shows higher attenuation, a factor of about two greater than that in the lithosphere. The very lowQ can be explained by changes in the chemical constitution taking place in the uppermost mantle.     

Transfer factors of contamination between the German Bight and its tributary waters derived from measured tritium and Cs-137 activity concentrations

Summary Evaluation of the results of radioactivity monitoring in the southern North Sea between 1977 and 1987 has shown that in the water of the German Bight three areas stand out due to their different ratios between salinity and concentration of dissolved Cs-137 and tritium. While salinity steadily increases with greater distance from the coast, the Cs-137 concentration above 34 PSU (Practical Salinity Unit) increases sharply and shows how far water from the western and central North Sea, contaminated by nuclear reprocessing in Sellafield (Irish Sea), reaches into the German Bight. In the 34 to 32.5 PSU range, the influence can be seen of water contaminated by tritium originating in the rivers Rhein, Maas and Schelde, precipitation and the nuclear reprocessing plant at La Hague (Channel). Below 32.5 PSU, the influence of the influx from the rivers Elbe, Weser and Ems becomes apparent. These rivers are less contaminated with tritium.Assuming that Cs-137 and tritium, like the salinity of sea water, behave conservatively and that the decay-time of these two isotopes is long compared with the time-scale of water exchange in the southern North Sea, the concentration values measured are used to calculate the structure of the water masses in the three areas of the German Bight mentioned above using the mixing principle. Evaporation is taken into account. Results show that beyond 34 PSU, about half the sea water originates in the western central North Sea while the other half comes from the Channel. Below 34 PSU, the first mentioned share amounts only to a few per cent. Results also show that fresh water from the Rhein delta and precipitation, increasing with a decrease in salinity from 34 to 32.5 PSU, accounts for a maximum of 5% each. The fresh water influx into the German Bight via the rivers Elbe, Weser and Ems amounts to app. 11% when the PSU value reaches 29. The calculated portions are the mean values for the observation period. The number of measurements available makes it impossible to distinguish more exactly between the temporal and spatial variability of the amounts of the individual components.The quantity of each calculated portion of sea water also represents the transfer factor of concentration between the nuclide concentration in the source (e. g. the Rhein) and the concentration in the German Bight. In addition, these factors are used to calculate the transfer factors of discharge using the annual drainage rates of the sources. Thus a radioactive discharge rate of 10¹⁵ Bq per year into the Rhein would produce a mean activity concentration of 0.34 Bq/l in the German Bight (at a salinity of 33.5 PSU). To verify the calculated transfer factors, tritium concentrations in the German Bight are derived from existing environmental tritium data and the results are compared with the values actually measured.

---

Transferkaktoren zwischen der Deutschen Bucht und ihren Zuflüssen abgeleitet aus der Tritium- und Cs-137-Aktivitätskonzentration in den beteiligten Gewässern

Zusammenfassung Eine zusammenhängende Auswertung der Meßergebnisse der Radioaktivitätsüberwachung in der südlichen Nordsee über den Zeitraum 1977 bis 1987 hat gezeigt, daß im Wasser der Deutschen Bucht deutlich drei durch den Salzgehalt des Meerwassers und die Konzentration der gelösten Radionuklide charakterisierte Bereiche zu unterscheiden sind.Während der Salzgehalt mit wachsender Entfernung von der Küste stetig zunimmt, steigt die Cs-137-Konzentration oberhalb 34 PSU (Practical Salinity Unit) sprunghaft an und signalisiert die Grenze, bis zu der das durch die Kernbrennstoff-Wiederaufarbeitung in Sellafield (Irische See) kontaminierte Meerwasser der westlichen und mittleren Nordsee in die Deutsche Bucht vordringt. Im Bereich 34 bis 32,5 PSU ist das von Westen zugeführte, stärker Tritium-kontaminierte Wasser aus Rhein, Maas, Schelde und atmosphärischem Niederschlag zu erkennen, an das sich unterhalb 32,5 PSU der geringer mit Tritum kontaminierte Zufluß aus Elbe, Weser und Ems anschließt.Davon ausgehend, daß sich Cs-137 und Tritium wie der Salzgehalt im Meerwasser konservativ verhalten und daß weiterhin die Halbwertzeit des radioaktiven Zerfalls dieser beiden Nuklide lang ist gegenüber den Wasseraustauschzeiten im betrachteten Meeresgebiet, wurden die in der südlichen Nordsee gemessenen sowie aus der Literatur für den Süßwasserbereich entnommenen Konzentrationswerte dazu genutzt, um rechnerisch mit Hilfe des Mischungsgesetzes den Wassermassenaufbau in den drei genannten Salinitätsbereichen in der Deutschen Bucht quantitativ zu bestimmen. Es zeigte sich, daß oberhalb von 34 PSU das Meerwasser aus etwa gleichen Teilen aus der westlichen/mittleren Nordsee und dem Kanal stammt, während unterhalb dieser Salzgehaltsgrenze nur noch mit wenigen Prozentanteilen Wasser aus der mittleren Nordsee zu finden ist. Ferner ergab sich, daß das aus dem Rheinmündungsbiet bzw, aus dem atmosphärischen Niederschlag stammende Süßwasser — mit sinkendem Salzgehalt steigend — bei 32,5 PSU einen maximalen Anteil von jeweils 5% an Meerwasser hat. Der direkte Süßwasserzufluß aus Elbe, Weser und Ems beträgt in die Deutsche Bucht bei 29 PSU ca. 11%.Die berechneten Anteile sind Mittelwerte über den gesamten Beobachtungszeitraum; die Anzahl der Messungen läßt eine genauere Unterscheidung in zeitliche und räumliche Variabilität der Zusammensetzung nicht zu.Die Größe des jeweils bestimmten Anteils am Meerwasser stellt gleichzeitig den Transferfaktor der Konzentration zwischen der Nuklidkonzentration im Ursprungsgewässer (z. B. dem Rhein) und der sich daraus einstellenden Konzentration in der Deutschen Bucht dar. Ferner wurden die Transferfaktoren der Konzentration in Verbindung mit aus der Literatur entnommenen Größen der jährlichen Abflußmengen der Ursprungsgewässer genutzt, um auch die Transferfaktoren der jährlichen Einbringung zu ermitteln. So ergibt die jährliche Einbringung von 10¹⁵ Bq eines Nuklides z. B. in den Rhein bei 33,5 PSU in der Deutschen Bucht eine mittlere Konzentration von 0,34 Bq/l.Als Anwendungsbeispiel und zur Überprüfung der Richtigkeit der Transferfaktoren wird die Auswertung des Tritiumauslasses bei La Hague auf die Deutsche Bucht berechnet und mit den gemessenen Werten verglichen.

     

Na-rich carbonate inclusions in perovskite and calzirtite from the Guli intrusive Ca-carbonatite,polar Siberia

Carbonate phases, some rich in Na₂O and comparatively rich in SrO and BaO, occur as inclusions in perovskite and calzirtite (Ca₂Zr₅Ti₂O₁₆) in the carbonatite of the Guli complex, Siberia. This is the first record of alkali carbonates, akin to nyerereite [Na₂Ca(CO₃)₂], in plutonic igneous rocks. The inclusion populations suggest that the parental magma of the complex was Ca-rich but developed Na-rich differentiates during the latest stages. This points to the dominant calcic carbonatites of the complex not being derivatives of alkali-rich parental carbonatites. These alkali-rich carbonate inclusions (and rare inclusions of djerfisherite) have been preserved due to the resistance of perovskite and calzirtite to processes of leaching, hydrothermal alteration and weathering.     

High pressure experimental calibration of the olivine-orthopyroxene-spinel oxygen geobarometer: implications for the oxidation state of the upper mantle

Synthetic spinel harzburgite and lherzolite assemblages were equilibrated between 1040 and 1300° C and 0.3 to 2.7 GPa, under controlled oxygen fugacity (f _{O 2}). f _{O 2} was buffered with conventional and open double-capsule techniques, using the Fe−FeO, WC-WO₂-C, Ni−NiO, and Fe₃O₄−Fe₂O₃ buffers, and graphite, olivine, and PdAg alloys as sample containers. Experiments were carried out in a piston-cylinder apparatus under fluid-excess conditions. Within the P-T-X range of the experiments, the redox ratio Fe³⁺/ΣFe in spinel is a linear function of f _{O 2} (0.02 at IW, 0.1 at WCO, 0.25 at NNO, and 0.75 at MH). It is independent of temperature at given Δlog(f _{O 2}), but decreases slightly with increasing Cr content in spinel. The Fe³⁺/ΣFe ratio falls with increasing pressure at given Δlog(f _{O 2}), consistent with a pressure correction based on partial molar volume data. At a specific temperature, degree of melting and bulk composition, the Cr/(Cr+Al) ratio of a spinel rises with increasing f _{O 2}. A linear least-squares fit to the experimental data gives the semi-empirical oxygen barometer in terms of divergence from the fayalite-magnetite-quartz (FMQ) buffer:

An Example of Island-Arc Petrogenesis: Geochemistry and Petrology of the Southern Luzon Arc, Philippines

Volcanism throughout the Luzon arc is associated with eastwardsubduction of the South China Sea floor along the Manila Trench.The southern section of the arc, the focus of this study, extendsfrom the Lingayen-Dingalan fault to the small islands just southof Luzon. Two segments appear to exist along this section ofthe arc the northern Bataan and southern Mindoro segments whichare separated by the Macolod Corridor. The volcanic rocks have typical arc phenocryst mineralogies:olivine, clinopyroxene, plagioclase, and titanomagnetite inthe most mafic rocks and clinopyroxene, plagioclase, orthopyroxene,titanomagnetite, ? amphibole in the more felsic samples. Complexzoning, sieve textures, and decoupling of incompatible traceelements suggest that processes such as assimilation have takenplace. The rocks from the study area range from basalts to rhyolitesand show typical calc-alkaline features. The rocks of the MacolodCorridor and Mindoro segment are particularly enriched in largeion lithophile elements (LILE), light rare earth elements (LREE),and radiogenic Sr compared with the Bataan segment. The datafall within the mantle array on Sr-Nd isotopic diagrams andgrade toward higher Sr and lower Nd isotopic values from northto south. A likely source for the volcanics of this study is either amid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB)-type mantle that undergoes higherdegrees of partial melting than regions involved in MORB generationor a previously depleted source. We suggest that the high fieldstrength element (HFSE) anomalies have been derived throughdifferential element partitioning during fluid transport fromthe subducted lithosphere to the mantle wedge. Continental crustal material seems to play a significant roleparticularly in the Macolod Corridor and the Mindoro segment,based on the high LILE, La/Sm ratios, radiogenic Sr isotopes,and ¹⁸O values. The Macolod Corridor and the Mindoro segmenthave undergone source contamination by crustal material fromthe North Palawan-Mindoro crustal block either during the collisionof this block with the Manila Trench or by subduction of sedimentsrich in this crustal material. A similar component has alsobeen detected in the Bataan segment but in minor amounts. Thetrace element and isotopic differences between the northernand southern sections of the arc are interpreted in terms ofvariable composition (i. e., variable amounts of a crustal componentintroduced from the Palawan-Mindoro crustal terrain) of themetasomatic fluids released into the source.