UNFCCC before and after Paris – what's necessary for an effective climate regime?

What can reasonably be expected from the UNFCCC process and the climate conference in Paris 2015? To achieve transformative change, prevailing unsustainable routines embedded in socio-economic systems have to be translated into new and sustainable ones. This article conceptualizes the UNFCCC and the associated policy processes as a catalyst for this translation by applying a structurational regime model. This model provides an analytical distinction of rules (norms and shared meaning) and resources (economic resources as well as authoritative and allocative power) and allows us to conceptualize agency on various levels, including beyond nation states. The analysis concludes that the UNFCCC's narrow focus on emission targets, which essentially is a focus on resources, has proven ineffective. In addition, the static division of industrialized and developing countries in the Convention's annexes and the consensus-based decision-making rules have impeded ambitious climate protection. The article concludes that the UNFCCC is much better equipped to provide rules for climate protection activities and should consciously expand this feature to improve its impact.

Policy relevance

The international community is negotiating a new global climate agreement, to be adopted at the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) in December 2015 in Paris and to be applicable from 2020. This article analyses the successes and limitations the UNFCCC has had so far in combating climate change and it develops recommendations on how to enhance efforts within and beyond the framework of the Convention. From our analysis we derive two main recommendations for an effective and structurationally balanced treaty: First, multidimensional mitigation contributions going beyond emission targets could strongly improve countries’ abilities to tailor their contributions around national political discourses. Second, the UNFCCC regime should be complemented with another treaty outside of the UNFCCC framework. This ‘Alliance of the Ambitious’ would allow the pioneers of climate protection to move ahead and enjoy the benefits of cooperation. The dynamics generated through such a club approach could be fed back into the UNFCCC, leading to increased ambition by others in future commitment cycles.     

Carbon flows in the benthic food web at the deep-sea observatory HAUSGARTEN (Fram Strait)

The HAUSGARTEN observatory is located in the eastern Fram Strait (Arctic Ocean) and used as long-term monitoring site to follow changes in the Arctic benthic ecosystem. Linear inverse modelling was applied to decipher carbon flows among the compartments of the benthic food web at the central HAUSGARTEN station (2500 m) based on an empirical data set consisting of data on biomass, prokaryote production, total carbon deposition and community respiration. The model resolved 99 carbon flows among 4 abiotic and 10 biotic compartments, ranging from prokaryotes up to megafauna. Total carbon input was 3.78±0.31 mmol C m⁻² d⁻¹, which is a comparatively small fraction of total primary production in the area. The community respiration of 3.26±0.20 mmol C m⁻² d⁻¹ is dominated by prokaryotes (93%) and has lower contributions from surface-deposit feeding macro- (1.7%) and suspension feeding megafauna (1.9%), whereas contributions from nematode and other macro- and megabenthic compartments were limited to <1%. The high prokaryotic contribution to carbon processing suggests that functioning of the benthic food web at the central HAUSGARTEN station is comparable to abyssal plain sediments that are characterised by strong energy limitation. Faunal diet compositions suggest that labile detritus is important for deposit-feeding nematodes (24% of their diet) and surface-deposit feeding macrofauna (∼44%), but that semi-labile detritus is more important in the diets of deposit-feeding macro- and megafauna. Dependency indices on these food sources were also calculated as these integrate direct (i.e. direct grazing and predator–prey interactions) and indirect (i.e. longer loops in the food web) pathways in the food web. Projected sea-ice retreats for the Arctic Ocean typically anticipate a decrease in the labile detritus flux to the already food-limited benthic food web. The dependency indices indicate that faunal compartments depend similarly on labile and semi-labile detritus, which suggests that the benthic biota may be more sensitive to changes in labile detritus inputs than when assessed from diet composition alone. Species-specific responses to different types of labile detritus inputs, e.g. pelagic algae versus sympagic algae, however, are presently unknown and are needed to assess the vulnerability of individual components of the benthic food web.     

From land cover-graphs to urban structure types

Urban structure types (UST) are an initial interest and basic instrument for monitoring, controlling and modeling tasks of urban planners and decision makers during ongoing urbanization processes. This study focuses on a method to classify UST from land cover (LC) objects, which were derived from high resolution satellite images. The topology of urban LC objects is analyzed by implementing neighborhood LC-graphs. Various graph measures are examined by their potential to distinguish between different UST, using the machine learning classifier random forest. Additionally the influence of different parameter settings of the random forest model, the reduction of training samples, and the graph measure importance is analyzed. An independent test set is classified and validated, achieving an overall accuracy of 87%. It was found that the height of the building with the highest node degree has a strong impact on the classification result.     

Tall clouds from small eruptions: the sensitivity of eruption height and fine ash content to tropospheric instability

A critical factor in successfully monitoring and forecasting volcanic ash dispersion for aviation safety is the height reached by eruption clouds, which is affected by environmental factors, such as wind shear and atmospheric instability. Following earlier work using the Active Tracer High Resolution Atmospheric Model for strong Plinian eruptions, this study considered a range of eruption strengths in different atmospheres. The results suggest that relatively weak volcanic eruptions in the moist tropics can trigger deep convection that transports volcanic material to 15–20 km. For the same volcanic strength there can be ~9 km difference between eruption heights in moist tropical and dry subpolar environments (a larger height difference than previously suggested), which appears consistent with observations. These results suggest that eruption intensity should not be estimated from eruption height alone for tropospheric eruptions and also that the average height of volcanic eruptions may increase if the tropical atmospheric belt widens in a changing climate. Ash aggregation is promoted by hydrometeors (particularly liquid water), so the smaller modelled eruptions in moist atmospheres, which have a relatively small ash content for their height and water content, result in a relatively small proportion of fine ash in the dispersing cloud when compared to a dry atmosphere. This in turn makes the ash clouds much more difficult to detect using remote sensing than those in dry atmospheres. Overall, a weak eruption in the tropics is more likely to produce a plume above cruising levels for civil aviation, harder to detect and track, but with a lower concentration of fine ash than a mid-latitude or polar equivalent. There is currently no defined ‘acceptable’ concentration of ash for aircraft, but as these results suggest low-grade encounters in the tropics from undetected clouds are likely, it would be desirable to explore that issue.     

Competence-based and game-based capacity development for sustainable water management in Germany

Sustainable water management is one of humanity’s most important challenges—today and in the future. Germany does not face a significant water shortage problem, but it has three main challenges: protection of water quality, ensuring public water supply and public wastewater disposal, and protecting the public and infrastructure from floods. Capacity development is a key issue to overcome the challenges of water resources in any country including Germany. Engineers, technicians, and mechanics need to upgrade their knowledge on a regular basis to deal with the complex management and rapid technological developments. In order to create efficient training schemes, the Vocational Training Working Group of Global Water Partnership (GWP), part of the GWP Capacity Development Task Force, has worked on the definition of fundamental job profiles for the Water and Sanitation Sector (WASS). To cover all technical functions of the industrial water cycle, it was necessary to identify around thirty occupations. Then, a competence-based training approach was adopted. Additionally, an assessment approach was also developed based on comparing the level of competence of the workers to a standard level of competence for each job. The RWTH Aachen University with its partners have developed another game-based approach (SeCom2.0) based on serious gaming technology to enable water professionals dealing with flood risk management to be trained on different flood situations in a virtual environment. SeCom2.0 has three main components that are connected by a database layer. In addition to the serious games component, there is a collaboration component and a learning management system. For nearly 100 members from the flood competence centre (HochwasserKompetenzCentrum) in Cologne, Germany gave input to simulate the real flooding scenarios, and the learners will have to deal with a flood scenario by protecting the city in a given time and using a given resources and tools. This work concluded that both competence-based and game-based approaches could be significantly improved by blending both approaches. This will improve the process of training; for example, the competence-based approach can be enriched by using game-based simulation by introducing the trainees to a simulation of different technologies in water utilities. This can save resources and money and enrich the training. More importantly is modifying the game-based approach using the approach of competence-based to focus on specific competencies and to make use of the competence standards in its assessment component. The first section of this introduces and categorizes water challenges in Germany. In the second and third section, the two approaches are introduced in details. The competence-based approach is introduced to the WASS while the games-based to the flood risk management. Finally, a conclusion and recommendations are illustrated.     

Cross dating (Th/U-C) of calcite covering prehistoric paintings in Borneo

We present the first application of cross-dating (Th/U measured by thermo-ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) and ¹⁴C measured by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS)) of calcite covering prehistoric paintings. Th/U age estimates of cave drapery range from 9800 to 27,300 yr B.P. while conventional ¹⁴C age is estimated between 9900 and 7610 yr B.P. depending on the dead carbon correction. The age discrepancy is attributed to a disturbance of Th/U and/or ¹⁴C geochemical systems, showing the limits of the geochronological approach applied to this kind of material. For the Th/U system, the poor consistency of U data (U content, ²³⁴U/²³⁸U activity ratios) and apparent ages argue for open system conditions. For ¹⁴C system, variation of the dead carbon fraction (dcf) and a possible mixing of successive generations of calcite could account for age discrepancy. Nevertheless, one sample shows concordant ages for the two methods. Compatible ages through corrections for open system conditions are assumed for other samples. Then, the cross-dating suggests 9900 yr as the minimum age of the piece of drapery; the underlying painting must be older. This study of rock art demonstrates the presence of a Pleistocene population before 9900 yr in the southeast of Borneo, whereas previously the only population in evidence in this area was of Austronesian type from ∼5000 to 6000 yrs ago.     

Physicochemical conditions and timing of rodingite formation: evidence from rodingite-hosted fluid inclusions in the JM Asbestos mine,Asbestos, Québec

Fluid inclusions and geological relationships indicate that rodingite formation in the Asbestos ophiolite, Québec, occurred in two, or possibly three, separate episodes during thrusting of the ophiolite onto the Laurentian margin, and that it involved three fluids. The first episode of rodingitization, which affected diorite, occurred at temperatures of between 290 and 360°C and pressures of 2.5 to 4.5 kbar, and the second episode, which affected granite and slate, occurred at temperatures of between 325 and 400°C and pressures less than 3 kbar. The fluids responsible for these episodes of alteration were moderately to strongly saline (~1.5 to 6.3 m eq. NaCl), rich in divalent cations and contained appreciable methane. A possible third episode of alteration is suggested by primary fluid inclusions in vesuvianite-rich bodies and secondary inclusions in other types of rodingite, with significantly lower trapping temperatures, salinity and methane content. The association of the aqueous fluids with hydrocarbon-rich fluids containing CH₄ and higher order alkanes, but no CO₂, suggests strongly that the former originated from the serpentinites. The similarities in the composition of the fluids in all rock types indicate that the ophiolite had already been thrust onto the slates when rodingitization occurred.     

Response of large benthic foraminifera to climate and local changes: Implications for future carbonate production

Large benthic foraminifera are major carbonate components in tropical carbonate platforms, important carbonate producers, stratigraphic tools and powerful bioindicators (proxies) of environmental change. The application of large benthic foraminifera in tropical coral reef environments has gained considerable momentum in recent years. These modern ecological assessments are often carried out by micropalaeontologists or ecologists with expertise in the identification of foraminifera. However, large benthic foraminifera have been under-represented in favour of macro reef-builders, for example, corals and calcareous algae. Large benthic foraminifera contribute about 5% to modern reef-scale carbonate sediment production. Their substantial size and abundance are reflected by their symbiotic association with the living algae inside their tests. When the foraminiferal holobiont (the combination between the large benthic foraminifera host and the microalgal photosymbiont) dies, the remaining calcareous test renourishes sediment supply, which maintains and stabilizes shorelines and low-lying islands. Geological records reveal episodes (i.e. late Palaeocene and early Eocene epochs) of prolific carbonate production in warmer oceans than today, and in the absence of corals. This begs for deeper consideration of how large benthic foraminifera will respond under future climatic scenarios of higher atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO₂) and to warmer oceans. In addition, studies highlighting the complex evolutionary associations between large benthic foraminifera hosts and their algal photosymbionts, as well as to associated habitats, suggest the potential for increased tolerance to a wide range of conditions. However, the full range of environments where large benthic foraminifera currently dwell is not well-understood in terms of present and future carbonate production, and impact of stressors. The evidence for acclimatization, at least by a few species of well-studied large benthic foraminifera, under intensifying climate change and within degrading reef ecosystems, is a prelude to future host–symbiont resilience under different climatic regimes and habitats than today. This review also highlights knowledge gaps in current understanding of large benthic foraminifera as prolific calcium carbonate producers across shallow carbonate shelf and slope environments under changing ocean conditions.     

Bathymetric patterns of megafaunal assemblages from the arctic deep-sea observatory HAUSGARTEN

Five photographic transects, covering some 830 m² of seafloor in total, were analyzed to characterize the megabenthic community along a bathymetric gradient covering water depths from 1200 to 5500 m in the eastern Fram Strait. Megafaunal densities ranged between 11 and 38 ind. m⁻². The highest densities were found at 1650 m and the lowest densities occurred at 3000 m depth. The number of taxa and morphotypes ranged between 4 at 5500 m and 27 at 1650 m water depth. Ophiocten gracilis, a small white unidentified amphipod, Kolga hyalina, and Bathycrinus carpenteri were the dominant and characteristic species on the slope and continental rise. Elpidia heckeri dominated in the Molloy Hole, the deepest depression known in the Arctic Ocean. Megafaunal zonation patterns appeared to be mainly controlled by food availability, as indicated by phytodetrital matter measured at the seafloor, and by benthic biomass in the sediments, as indicated by sediment-bound particulate proteins and phospholipids. By contrast, physical factors, including water depth and seabed properties such as sediment porosity and hard substrata (e.g., dropstones), appear to play a secondary role in determining megabenthic zonation patterns along the bathymetric HAUSGARTEN gradient.