Causes and impacts of changes in the Arctic freshwater budget during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries in an AOGCM

The fourth version of the atmosphere-ocean general circulation (AOGCM) model developed at the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL-CM4) is used to investigate the mechanisms influencing the Arctic freshwater balance in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. The freshwater influence on the interannual variability of deep winter oceanic convection in the Nordic Seas is also studied on the basis of correlation and regression analyses of detrended variables. The model shows that the Fram Strait outflow, which is an important source of freshwater for the northern North Atlantic, experiences a rapid and strong transition from a weak state toward a relatively strong state during 1990–2010. The authors propose that this climate shift is triggered by the retreat of sea ice in the Barents Sea during the late twentieth century. This sea ice reduction initiates a positive feedback in the atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system that alters both the atmospheric and oceanic circulations in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN)-Barents Seas sector. Around year 2080, the model predicts a second transition threshold beyond which the Fram Strait outflow is restored toward its original weak value. The long-term freshening of the GIN Seas is invoked to explain this rapid transition. It is further found that the mechanism of interannual changes in deep mixing differ fundamentally between the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This difference is caused by the dominant influence of freshwater over the twenty-first century. In the GIN Seas, the interannual changes in the liquid freshwater export out of the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait combined with the interannual changes in the liquid freshwater import from the North Atlantic are shown to have a major influence in driving the interannual variability of the deep convection during the twenty-first century. South of Iceland, the other region of deep water renewal in the model, changes in freshwater import from the North Atlantic constitute the dominant forcing of deep convection on interannual time scales over the twenty-first century.     

Mineralogy and geochemistry of alluvium contaminated by metal mining in the Rio Tinto area, southwest Spain

The Rio Tinto in SW Spain drains Cu and pyrite mines which have been in operation since at least the Bronze Age. Extensive metal mining, especially from 1873 to 1954, has resulted in contamination of the Rio Tinto alluvium with As, Cu, Pb, Ag and Zn. X-ray diffraction (XRD), wavelength-dispersive X-ray mapping, scanning electron microscope petrography and X-ray energy-dispersive (EDX) analysis has revealed that 4 major groups of contaminant metal and As-bearing minerals, including sulphides, Fe-As oxides, Fe oxides/hydroxides/oxyhydroxides, and Fe oxyhydroxysulphates, occur in the alluvium. Sulphide minerals, including pyrite, chalcopyrite, arsenopyrite and sphalerite, occur in alluvium near the mining areas. Iron hydroxides and oxyhydroxides such as goethite and possibly ferrihydrite occur in cements in both the mining areas and alluvium downstream, and carry minor amounts of As, Cu and Zn. Iron oxyhydroxysulphates, including jarosite, plumbojarosite and possibly schwertmannite, are the most common minerals in alluvium downstream of the mining areas, and are major hosts of Cu, Pb, Zn and of As, next to the Fe-As minerals. This work, and other field observations, suggest that (1) the extreme acidity and elevated metal concentrations of the river water will probably be maintained for some time due to oxidation of pyrite and other sulphides in the alluvium and mine-waste tips, and from formation of secondary oxide and oxyhydroxysulphates; (2) soluble Fe oxyhydroxysulphates such as copiapite, which form on the alluvium, are a temporary store of contaminant metals, but are dissolved during periods of high rainfall or flooding, releasing contaminants to the aqueous system; (3) relatively insoluble Fe oxyhydroxysulphates and hydroxides such as jarosite and goethite may be the major long-term store of alluvial contaminant metals; and (4) raising river pH will probably cause precipitation of Fe oxyhydroxides and oxides/hydroxides/oxyhydroxides and thus have a positive effect on water quality, but this action may destabilise some of these contaminant metal-bearing minerals, releasing metals back to the aqueous system.     

Impacts of greenhouse gases and aerosol direct and indirect effects on clouds and radiation in atmospheric GCM simulations of the 1930–1989 period

Among anthropogenic perturbations of the Earths atmosphere, greenhouse gases and aerosols are considered to have a major impact on the energy budget through their impact on radiative fluxes. We use three ensembles of simulations with the LMDZ general circulation model to investigate the radiative impacts of five species of greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, CFC-11 and CFC-12) and sulfate aerosols for the period 1930–1989. Since our focus is on the atmospheric changes in clouds and radiation from greenhouse gases and aerosols, we prescribed sea-surface temperatures in these simulations. Besides the direct impact on radiation through the greenhouse effect and scattering of sunlight by aerosols, strong radiative impacts of both perturbations through changes in cloudiness are analysed. The increase in greenhouse gas concentration leads to a reduction of clouds at all atmospheric levels, thus decreasing the total greenhouse effect in the longwave spectrum and increasing absorption of solar radiation by reduction of cloud albedo. Increasing anthropogenic aerosol burden results in a decrease in high-level cloud cover through a cooling of the atmosphere, and an increase in the low-level cloud cover through the second aerosol indirect effect. The trend in low-level cloud lifetime due to aerosols is quantified to 0.5 min day^–1 decade^–1 for the simulation period. The different changes in high (decrease) and low-level (increase) cloudiness due to the response of cloud processes to aerosols impact shortwave radiation in a contrariwise manner, and the net effect is slightly positive. The total aerosol effect including the aerosol direct and first indirect effects remains strongly negative.     

Mapping biomass with remote sensing: a comparison of methods for the case study of Uganda

Background  

Assessing biomass is gaining increasing interest mainly for bioenergy, climate change research and mitigation activities, such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries (REDD+). In response to these needs, a number of biomass/carbon maps have been recently produced using different approaches but the lack of comparable reference data limits their proper validation. The objectives of this study are to compare the available maps for Uganda and to understand the sources of variability in the estimation. Uganda was chosen as a case-study because it presents a reliable national biomass reference dataset.     

Disconcerting learning on climate sensitivity and the uncertain future of uncertainty

How will our estimates of climate uncertainty evolve in the coming years, as new learning is acquired and climate research makes further progress? As a tentative contribution to this question, we argue here that the future path of climate uncertainty may itself be quite uncertain, and that our uncertainty is actually prone to increase even though we learn more about the climate system. We term disconcerting learning this somewhat counter-intuitive process in which improved knowledge generates higher uncertainty. After recalling some definitions, this concept is connected with the related concept of negative learning that was introduced earlier by Oppenheimer et al. (Clim Change 89:155–172, 2008). We illustrate disconcerting learning on several real-life examples and characterize mathematically certain general conditions for its occurrence. We show next that these conditions are met in the current state of our knowledge on climate sensitivity, and illustrate this situation based on an energy balance model of climate. We finally discuss the implications of these results on the development of adaptation and mitigation policy.     

Regional hydrological cycle changes in response to an ambitious mitigation scenario

Climate change impacts on the regional hydrological cycle are compared for model projections following an ambitious emissions-reduction scenario (E1) and a medium-high emissions scenario with no mitigation policy (A1B). The E1 scenario is designed to limit global annual mean warming to 2 °C or less above pre-industrial levels. A multi-model ensemble consisting of ten coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models is analyzed, which includes five Earth System Models containing interactive carbon cycles. The aim of the study is to assess the changes that could be mitigated under the E1 scenario and to identify regions where even small climate change may lead to strong changes in precipitation, cloud cover and evapotranspiration. In these regions the hydrological cycle is considered particularly vulnerable to climate change, highlighting the need for adaptation measures even if strong mitigation of climate change would be achieved. In the A1B projections, there are significant drying trends in sub-tropical regions, precipitation increases in high latitudes and some monsoon regions, as well as changes in cloudiness and evapotranspiration. These signals are reduced in E1 scenario projections. However, even under the E1 scenario, significant precipitation decrease in the subtropics and increase in high latitudes are projected. Particularly the Amazon region shows strong drying tendencies in some models, most probably related to vegetation interaction. Where climate change is relatively small, the E1 scenario tends to keep the average magnitude of potential changes at a level comparable to current intra-seasonal to inter-annual variability at that location. Such regions are mainly located in the mid-latitudes.     

Dynamical evolution of NEAs: Close encounters, secular perturbations and resonances

We discuss the main mechanisms affecting the dynamical evolution of Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) by analyzing the results of three numerical integrations over 1 Myr of the NEA (4179) Toutatis. In the first integration the only perturbing planet is the Earth. So the evolution is dominated by close encounters and looks like a random walk in semimajor axis and a correlated random walk in eccentricity, keeping almost constant the perihelion distance and the Tisserand invariant. In the second integration Jupiter and Saturn are present instead of the Earth, and the 3/1 (mean motion) and v ₆ (secular) resonances substantially change the eccentricity but not the semimajor axis. The third, most realistic, integration including all the three planets together shows a complex interplay of effects, with close encounters switching the orbit between different resonant states and no approximate conservation of the Tisserand invariant. This shows that simplified 3-body or 4-body models cannot be used to predict the typical evolution patterns and time scales of NEAs, and in particular that resonances provide some “fast-track” dynamical routes from low-eccentricity to very eccentric, planet-crossing orbits.