Groundwater Modeling in Integrated Water Resources Management—Visions for 2020

Groundwater modeling is undergoing a change from traditional stand-alone studies toward being an integrated part of holistic water resources management procedures. This is illustrated by the development in Denmark, where comprehensive national databases for geologic borehole data, groundwater-related geophysical data, geologic models, as well as a national groundwater-surface water model have been established and integrated to support water management. This has enhanced the benefits of using groundwater models. Based on insight gained from this Danish experience, a scientifically realistic scenario for the use of groundwater modeling in 2020 has been developed, in which groundwater models will be a part of sophisticated databases and modeling systems. The databases and numerical models will be seamlessly integrated, and the tasks of monitoring and modeling will be merged. Numerical models for atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater processes will be coupled in one integrated modeling system that can operate at a wide range of spatial scales. Furthermore, the management systems will be constructed with a focus on building credibility of model and data use among all stakeholders and on facilitating a learning process whereby data and models, as well as stakeholders' understanding of the system, are updated to currently available information. The key scientific challenges for achieving this are (1) developing new methodologies for integration of statistical and qualitative uncertainty; (2) mapping geological heterogeneity and developing scaling methodologies; (3) developing coupled model codes; and (4) developing integrated information systems, including quality assurance and uncertainty information that facilitate active stakeholder involvement and learning.     

Carbon dioxide in surface seawater of the eastern North Pacific Ocean (Line P), 1973–2005

Partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂) in surface seawater has been measured in the northeastern Pacific Ocean at Station P and along Line P since 1973. These data have been divided into ‘oceanic’ and ‘coastal/transition’ zones, and the seasonal and interannual variability and the long-term trends for each zone have been examined. The oceanic zone shows little seasonality in surface seawater pCO₂, with undersaturation throughout the year. A strong, biologically-driven seasonal cycle is offset by variation in temperature-dependent solubility of CO₂. The coastal/transition zone shows a decline in pCO₂ from winter–spring through summer and fall that is likely the result of seasonal stratification and convection rather than coastal upwelling. Interannual variability all along Line P is correlated with the multivariate ENSO index (MEI), with lower seawater pCO₂ associated with El Niño conditions. Correlations with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index are similar but weaker, in part because there are few data prior to the 1976 regime shift. The long-term trend in seawater pCO₂ in the oceanic zone is +1.36±0.16 μatm year^?1, indistinguishable from the atmospheric growth rate, and varies little among the seasons. In the coastal/transition zone a slow increase in the pCO₂ of surface seawater relative to that of the atmosphere has led to increasing undersaturation, particularly in spring. Aliasing of the seasonal and interannual variability due to sampling frequency may explain part of the observed trend in the coastal/transition zone, but real changes in physical or biological processes are also possible and require more detailed study.     

Hydraulic zonation of the lagoons of Marano and Grado,Italy. A modelling approach

The hydraulic regime-based zonation scheme of the Lagoons of Marano and Grado (Italy) has been derived by means of numerical models. A finite element modelling system has been used to describe the water circulation taking in account different forces such as tide, wind and rivers. The model has been validated by comparing the simulation results against measured water levels, salinity and water temperature data collected in several stations inside the lagoons. The analysis of water circulation, salinity and spatial distribution of passive tracers released at the inlets, led to a physically-based division of the lagoons system into six subbasins. The derived classification scheme is of crucial value for understanding the renewal capacity and pollutants distribution patterns in the lagoon.     

Adapting rail and road networks to weather extremes: case studies for southern Germany and Austria

The assessment of the current impacts of extreme weather conditions on transport systems reveals high costs in specific locations. Prominent examples for Europe are the economic consequences of the harsh winter periods 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 and the floods in Austria, Eastern Europe, Germany and the United Kingdom in 2005 and 2007. Departing from the EC-funded project WEATHER, this paper delves into the subject of adaptation strategies by revisiting the project’s general findings on adaptation strategies and by adding two specific cases: (1) advanced winter maintenance on roads in southwest Germany and (2) technical and organizational measures in Alpine rail transport. For these two cases, feasible adaptation strategies are elaborated and their potential is discussed in light of damage cost forecasts up to 2050. For the road sector, we find a high potential to mitigate weather-related costs, although damages here are expected to decline. In contrast, rail systems face strongly increasing damages and the mitigation options offered by improved information and communication systems seem to be largely exploited. Consequently, it is easier to justify expensive adaptation measures for high-cost rail infrastructures than for road transport. A generic analysis of 14 damage cases worldwide, however, revealed that generally awareness raising, cooperation and communication strategies are sufficient to mitigate the most severe damages by natural disasters.     

Laboratory measurement of compaction-induced permeability change in porous rocks: Implications for the generation and maintenance of pore pressure excess in the crust

Permeability exerts significant control over the development of pore pressure excess in the crust, and it is a physical quantity sensitively dependent on the pore structure and stress state. In many applications, the relation between permeability and effective mean stress is assumed to be exponential and that between permeability and porosity is assumed to be a power law, so that the pressure sensitivity of permeability is characterized by the coefficient and the porosity sensitivity by the exponent . In this study, we investigate experimentally the dependence of permeability on pressure and porosity in five sandstones with porosities ranging from 14% to 35% and we review published experimental data on intact rocks, unconsolidated materials and rock fractures. The laboratory data show that the pressure and porosity sensitivities differ significantly for different compaction mechanisms, but for a given compaction mechanism, the data can often be approximated by the empirical relations. The permeabilities of tight rocks and rock joints show relatively high pressure sensitivity and low porosity sensitivity. A wide range of values for and have been observed in relation to the mechanical compaction of porous rocks, sand and fault gouge, whereas the porosity sensitivity for chemical compaction processes is often observed to be given by 3. We show that since the ratio / corresponds to the pore compressibility, the different dependences of permeability on porosity and pressure are related to the pore structure and its compressibility. Guided by the laboratory data, we conduct numerical simulations on the development of pore pressure in crustal tectonic settings according to the models ofWalder andNur (1984) andRice (1992). Laboratory data suggest that the pressure sensitivity of fault gouge is relatively low, and to maintain pore pressure at close to the lithostatic value in the Rice model, a relatively high influx of fluid from below the seismogenic layer is necessary. The fluid may be injected as vertically propagating pressure pulses into the seismogenic system, andRice's (1992) critical condition for the existence of solitary wave is shown to be equivalent to >1, which is satisfied by most geologic materials in the laboratory. Laboratory data suggest that the porosity sensitivity is relatively high when the permeability is reduced by a coupled mechanical and chemical compaction process. This implies that in a crustal layer, pore pressure may be generated more efficiently than cases studied byWalder andNur (1984) who assumed a relatively low porosity sensitivity of =2.     

Ultraviolet Studies Of Interacting Binaries

Interacting Binaries consist of a variety of stellar objects in different stages of evolution and those containing accreting compact objects still represent a major challenge to our understanding of not only close binary evolution but also of the chemical evolution of the Galaxy. These end-points of binary star evolution are ideal laboratories for the study of accretion and outflow processes, and provide insight on matter under extreme physical conditions. One of the key-questions of fundamental relevance is the nature of SN Ia progenitors. The study of accreting compact binary systems relies on observations over the entire electromagnetic spectrum and we outline here those unresolved questions for which access to the ultraviolet range is vital, as they cannot be addressed by observations in any other spectral region.An erratum to this article can be found at     

GPS measurements of ground deformation induced by water level variations into a granitic aquifer (French Brittany)

We used two semi‐permanent GPS receivers with differential configuration to measure the hydrological subsidence of an aquifer used for water supply, located on a fractured granitic area. The time series of the vertical deformation measurements of the ground surface show a variation of 2 cm between winter and summer. We investigate the relationship between this vertical deformation and hydraulic head variations. We show that this kind of GPS survey allows characterizing part of the hydrological properties of such a heterogeneous aquifer. This is thus a new approach of time continuous monitoring of the deformation related to hydrogeological processes.