A model for the Am (Km) planetary geomagnetic activity index and application to prediction

We studied the existence of dynamical stochastic relations in the evolution of the am index. A first analysis of the autocorrelation functions showed evidence of several seasonalities. We first used linear (ARMA) models, and it was found that these do not account for the whole internal dynamics of the data series. We then used various non-linear models to provide a better fit to reality. The forecast performances of the non-linear models are not significantly different from those of the linear model. We give a tentative explanation for the failure of the non-linear predictions. Finally, ARCH models were used in order to take into account the fact that the confidence interval for the predicted value depends on past observations.     

Paleogeography and structure of the central Mediterranean: Sicily and its offshore area

The geology of the mainland and offshore of Sicily is illustrated by a few geologic sections and seismic profiles across the late Cenozoic orogenic belt of central and western Sicily and across the Sardinia Channel and Sicily Straits. This belt is the result of several tectonic events. Deformation involved mainly the sedimentary cover of the old African continental margin characterized by a broad basinal domain, flanked along its external (southern) margin by a shallow-water carbonate platform attached to Africa in the Triassic. Compressional deformation started in the more internal basinal rock assemblages overlying a thinned crust. The most important structural characteristic of the early phase of thrusting is the duplex pile forming the bulk of the chain in Central Western Sicily. The structure consists of a basal allochthon, made up of Permian to Middle Triassic layers, an intermediate duplex wedge, composed of competent Mesozoic carbonates, and a roof complex, including Upper Mesozoic-Lower Tertiary less competent rocks. Large-scale clockwise rotation of the thrusts accompanied transpressional movements in the hinterland during the Pliocene. Right oblique reverse faults modified the previous tectonic contacts between the allochthons in the hinterland zones. Contemporaneous south-directed imbrications affected the southern external areas, progressively incorporating foreland and piggyback basins. Development of the Gela Thrust System appears to be linked to the transpressional event; its accretion is also related to contemporaneous underthrusting at deeper levels of Mesozoic carbonate substratum. The older buried thrust sheets were pushed up to the surface breaching the deformed Tertiary cover of the Gela TS. Northwards in the belt post-Messinian normal growth faults opened half graben whose sedimentary fill underwent structural inversion. Alternation of extension and compression tectonics characterizes the Sicilian continental margin in the last million years.     

Foliation fields and 3D cartography in geology: Principles of a method based on potential interpolation

A modeling method that takes into account known points on a geological interface and plane orientation data such as stratification or foliation planes is described and tested. The orientations data do not necessarily belong to one of the interfaces but are assumed to sample the main anisotropy of a geological formation as in current geological situations. The problem is to determine the surfaces which pass through the known points on interfaces and which are compatible with the orientation data. The method is based on the interpolation of a scalar field defined in the space the gradient in which is orthogonal to the orientations, given that some points have the same but unknown scalar value (points of the same interface), and that scalar gradient is known on the other points (foliations). The modeled interfaces are represented as isovalues of the interpolated field. Preliminary two-dimensional tests carried-out with different covariance models demonstrate the validity of the method, which is easily transposable in three dimensions.     

Doubtful Events Reported in Current Italian Earthquake Catalogues: The Medieval Earthquakes of Subiaco (Central Italy)

Within the framework of a study of the seismicity of the Aniene Valley (Central Italy), we analysed the medieval earthquakes of Subiaco (1216, 1227, 1299), the largest events reported for the area. Our main goal was to investigate some doubtful events reported in earthquake catalogues and, as such, currently utilised for seismic hazard estimates. A careful screening of the oldest available sources and their filiation pattern up to the present pointed out the uncertainty on the date and nature of these phenomena. A multidisciplinary approach based on the joint analysis of archaeological, geomorphologic and historical evidence allowed us to propose new interpretations concerning these events and their significance for the assessment of seismic hazard in the Aniene Valley. The main conclusion is that the dates of the 1216 and 1227 events are fairly unsupported. In particular, the 1216 earthquake could be dated back to between AD 1159 and 1181.     

Controls on modern alluvial fan processes in the central Alps,northern Italy

Alluvial fan development in Alpine areas is often affected by catastrophic sedimentary processes associated with extreme ?oods events, causing serious risks for people living on the fans. Hazard assessment in these areas depends on proper identi?cation of the dominant sedimentary processes on the fans. Data from a set of 209 alluvial fans from the central Alps of Italy are presented in this paper and analysed with the help of various statistical techniques (linear regression, principal components analysis, cluster analysis, discriminant analysis and logistic regression). First, we used modern sedimentary facies and historical records (?ood events since 15th century), to distinguish between the two dominant sedimentary processes on alluvial fans: debris ?ows and stream?ows. Then, in order to analyse the main controls on past and present fan processes, 36 morphological, geological and land‐use variables were analysed. As with observations for arid‐environment fans, catchment morphology is the most in?uential factor in the study area, whereas geology and land use are minor controls. The role of climatic change and landsliding within the catchments also seems to be very important and is discussed. Statistical techniques also help in differentiating groups of alluvial fans by sets of controlling factors, including stage and type of evolution. Finally, by using discriminant analysis and logistic regression, we classi?ed alluvial fans according to the dominant sedimentary process, with a success rate ranging between 75 and 92 per cent. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pedogenic factors affecting magnetic susceptibility of the last interglacial palaeosol S1 in the Chinese Loess Plateau

The magnetic susceptibility has been used as a quantitative or semi‐quantitative proxy for reconstructing the summer monsoon intensity in the Chinese Loess Plateau based on extensive studies on climatic or/and environmental mechanisms producing the magnetic susceptibility signatures. However, the precise nature of the link between past climates and the susceptibility signatures has remained uncertain primarily due to lack of our understanding in the ?nalizing and preserving processes of the signatures. This paper attempts to examine the reliability or acceptability of this summer monsoon proxy from non‐magnetic perspectives of soil‐forming processes. We chose nine sections along two transects: one across the western part of the Chinese Loess Plateau and another across the eastern part. Several conclusions can be drawn from our analytical data. First, clay translocation within the S1 palaeosol pro?les, as indicated by ?eld‐observed clay coatings on ped faces in Bt and Bk horizons and demonstrated by laboratory‐analysed clay contents, must have moved some of the magnetic minerals downward so that the susceptibility re?ects only the post‐translocation distribution of the magnetic‐susceptibility‐producing minerals. Second, the best‐developed palaeosol S1S3 at most of the sections studied is not expressed by the magnetic susceptibility because this palaeosol developed in underlying coarse loess (L2) and coarse textures tend to lower the susceptibility. Third, carbonate concentration is normally negatively correlated with the magnetic susceptibility or simply suppresses the magnetic susceptibility peak when the susceptibility enhancement exceeds the carbonate dilution effect. To conclude, extreme caution must be observed when using magnetic susceptibility signatures to retrieve high‐resolution records of the last interglacial palaeoclimate in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimal design of viscoelastic dampers using eigenvalue assignment

In this study a procedure for determining the optimum size and location of viscoelastic dampers is proposed using the eigenvalue assignment technique. Natural frequencies and modal damping ratios, required to realize a given target response, are determined first by the convex model. Then the desired dynamic structural properties are realized by optimally distributing the damping and stiffness coefficients of viscoelastic dampers using non‐linear programming based on the gradient of eigenvalues. This optimization method provides information on the optimal location as well as the magnitude of the damper parameters. The proposed procedure is applied to the retrofit of a 10‐story shear frame, and to a three‐dimensional structure with an asymmetric plan. The analysis results confirm that the responses of model structures retrofitted by the proposed method correspond well with the given target response. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.