Some economics of ‘dangerous’ climate change: Reflections on the Stern Review

The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be “no doubt” the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are “very severe” [Stern, 2006. The Economics of Climate Change. HM Treasury, London, p. 188]. The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off, permanent 5–20% loss in global mean per-capita consumption today. And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p. 344]. Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature. Subsequently, a number of critiques have appeared, arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy. Discounting is important, but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty, and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probability/high-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of ‘dangerous’ climate change), can matter just as much. We demonstrate these arguments empirically, using the same models applied in the Stern Review. Together, the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand, and ‘dangerous’ climate change on the other, raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach, where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate. Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling. There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling, bringing together scientific ‘fact’ and value judgement systematically. But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates. Ironically, the Stern Review is one of those voices. A fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should, and are, built on broader foundations.     

Extraction of rhyolitic component of Vedde microtephra from minerogenic lake sediments

A technique is described for the extraction of rhyolitic microtephra from inorganic Lateglacial lake sediments. This technique was successfully applied by Lowe and Turney (1996) and is an adaption of the method described by Pilcher & Hall (1992) for application to Holocene peat deposits. It uses a density separation procedure to concentrate any microtephra component in lake sediments and was applied to the investigation of a lake sediment succession from a small basin in NE Scotland. Using this approach is was possible to define quantitatively for the first time the presence of the Vedde Ash tephra layer on the British Isles.     

Geometric constraints on composition of sediment derived from erosional landscapes

Although unroofing sequences are well known in the stratigraphic record, there is no general theory for estimating relevant basic quantities such as the time history of sediment production from a particular unit or the degree of mixing between successive units. Here we investigate the production of sediment from layered source rocks that are milled off by steady-state erosional topography. The shape of the sediment-production function for milling off a thin horizontal layer is given by the derivative of the hypsometric function, in the form of area contained within contours as a function of contour altitude. The time-scale for the production function, the ‘topographic mixing time’, is set by the topographic relief divided by the uplift rate. The production function for a sharp transition from one unit to another is given directly by the hypsometric function. The effects of stratal dip parallel to the mean slope of the erosional topography and finite layer thickness can be accounted for to a first approximation by simple geometric corrections to the mixing time. Finite layer thickness also has the effect of smoothing the production function although most natural hypsometric functions are smooth enough that this effect is relatively weak. The quality of an unroofing sequence can be measured in terms of the ‘sharpness’ of separation of successive peaks in sediment production produced by milling off a sequence of geometrically similar layers. This peak sharpness can be parameterized by a ratio of the interval between successive peaks in sediment production to topographic mixing time. By this measure, the quality of unroofing sequences is controlled by two parameters: the ratio of layer thickness to topographic relief, and the dip angle. The dip angle in concert with topographic mixing exerts a strong control on the degree of signal segregation; in particular, production of cleanly segregated signals for dip angles greater than about 15° requires very high ratios of layer thickness to relief. Hence identification of distinct unroofing sequences may place significant and useful constraints on the attitude and/or thickness of units in the eroding stratigraphy.     

Improved ocean-geoid resolution from retracked ERS-1 satellite altimeter waveforms

The ocean geoid can be inferred from the topography of the mean sea surface. Satellite altimeters transmit radar pulses and determine the return traveltime to measure sea-surface height. The ERS-1 altimeter stacks 51 consecutive radar reflections on board the satellite to a single waveform. Tracking the time shift of the waveform gives an estimate of the distance to the sea surface. We retrack the ERS-1 radar traveltimes using a model that is focused on the leading edge of the waveforms. While earlier methods regarded adjacent waveforms as independent statistical events, we invert a whole sequence of waveforms simultaneously for a spline geoid solution. Smoothness is controlled by spectral constraints on the spline coefficients. Our geoid solutions have an average spectral density equal to the expected power spectrum of the true geoid. The coherence of repeat track solutions indicates a spatial resolution of 31  km, as compared to 41  km resolution for the ERS-1 Ocean Product. While the resolution of the latter deteriorates to 47  km for wave heights above 2  m, our geoid solution maintains its resolution of 31  km for rough sea. Retracking altimeter waveform data and constraining the solution by a spectral model leads to a realistic geoid solution with significantly improved along-track resolution.     

Major changes in ice stream dynamics during deglaciation of the north-western margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet

Victoria Island lies at the north-western limit of the former North American (Laurentide) Ice Sheet in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and displays numerous cross-cutting glacial lineations. Previous work suggests that several ice streams operated in this region during the last (Wisconsinan) glaciation and played a major role in ice sheet dynamics and the delivery of icebergs into the Arctic Ocean. This paper produces the first detailed synthesis of their behaviour from the Last Glacial Maximum through to deglaciation (～21–9.5 cal ka BP) based on new mapping and a previously published radiocarbon-constrained ice sheet margin chronology. Over 70 discrete ice flow events (flow-sets) are ‘fitted’ to the ice margin configuration to allow identification of several ice streams ranging in size from large and long-lived (thousands of years) to much smaller and short-lived (hundreds of years). The reconstruction depicts major ice streams in M'Clure Strait and Amundsen Gulf which underwent relatively rapid retreat from the continental shelf edge at some time between ～15.2 and 14.1 cal ka BP: a period which encompasses climatic warming and rapid sea level rise (meltwater pulse-1a). Following this, overall retreat was slower and the ice streams exhibited asynchronous behaviour. The Amundsen Gulf Ice Stream continued to operate during ice margin retreat, whereas the M'Clure Strait Ice Stream ceased operating and was replaced by an ice divide within ～1000 years. This ice divide was subsequently obliterated by another short-lived phase of ice streaming in M'Clintock Channel ～13 cal ka BP. The timing of this large ice discharge event coincides with the onset of the Younger Dryas. Subsequently, a minor ice divide developed once again in M'Clintock Channel, before final deglaciation of the island shortly after 9.5 cal ka BP. It is concluded that large ice streams at the NW margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, equivalent in size to the Hudson Strait Ice Stream, underwent major changes during deglaciation, resulting in punctuated delivery of icebergs into the Arctic Ocean. Published radiocarbon dates constrain this punctuated delivery, as far as is possible within the limits imposed by their precision, and we note their coincidence with pulses of meltwater delivery inferred from numerical modelling and ocean sediment cores.     

The environments and clustering properties of 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey selected starburst galaxies

We investigate the environments and clustering properties of starburst galaxies selected from the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey (2dFGRS) in order to determine which, if any, environmental factors play a role in triggering a starburst. We quantify the local environments, clustering properties and luminosity functions of our starburst galaxies and compare to random control samples. The starburst galaxies are also classified morphologically in terms of their broad Hubble type and evidence of tidal merger/interaction signatures. We find the starburst galaxies to be much less clustered on large (5–15 Mpc) scales compared to the overall 2dFGRS galaxy population. In terms of their environments, we find just over half of the starburst galaxies to reside in low to intermediate luminosity groups, and a further ∼30 per cent residing in the outskirts and infall regions of rich clusters. Their luminosity functions also differ significantly from that of the overall 2dFGRS galaxy population, with the sense of the difference being critically dependent on the way their star formation rates are measured. In terms of pin-pointing what might trigger the starburst, it would appear that factors relating to their local environment are most germane. Specifically, we find clear evidence that the presence of a near neighbour of comparable luminosity/mass within 20 kpc is likely to be important in triggering a starburst. We also find that a significant fraction (20–30 per cent) of the galaxies in our starburst samples have morphologies indicative of either an ongoing or a recent tidal interaction and/or merger. These findings notwithstanding, there remain a significant portion of starburst galaxies where such local environmental influences are not in any obvious way playing a triggering role, leading us to conclude that starbursts can also be internally driven.