The analysis of indexed astronomical time series – VI. Covariances of amplitude ratios and phase differences estimated from multicolour photometry of a pulsating star

One of the tools used to identify the pulsation modes of stars is a comparison of the amplitudes and phases as observed photometrically at different wavelengths. Proper application of the method requires that the errors on the measured quantities, and the correlations between them, be known (or at least estimated). It is assumed that contemporaneous measurements of the light intensity of a pulsating star are obtained in several wavebands. It is also assumed that the measurements are regularly spaced in time, although there may be missing observations. The amplitude and phase of the pulsation are estimated separately for each of the wavebands, and amplitude ratios and phase differences are calculated. A general scheme for estimating the covariance matrix of the amplitude ratios and phase differences is described. The first step is to fit a time series to the residuals after pre-whitening the observations by the best-fitting sinusoid. The residuals are then cross-correlated to study the interdependence between the errors in the different wavebands. Once the multivariate time-series structure can be modelled, the covariance matrix can be found by bootstrapping. An illustrative application is described in detail.     

Towards Real‐Time Geodemographics: Clustering Algorithm Performance for Large Multidimensional Spatial Databases

Geodemographic classifications provide discrete indicators of the social, economic and demographic characteristics of people living within small geographic areas. They have hitherto been regarded as products, which are the final “best” outcome that can be achieved using available data and algorithms. However, reduction in computational cost, increased network bandwidths and increasingly accessible spatial data infrastructures have together created the potential for the creation of classifications in near real time within distributed online environments. Yet paramount to the creation of truly real time geodemographic classifications is the ability for software to process and efficiency cluster large multidimensional spatial databases within a timescale that is consistent with online user interaction. To this end, this article evaluates the computational efficiency of a number of clustering algorithms with a view to creating geodemographic classifications “on the fly” at a range of different geographic scales.     

Using hysteretic behaviour and hydrograph classification to identify hydrological function across the “hillslope–depression–stream” continuum in a karst catchment

In cockpit karst landscapes, fluxes from upland areas contribute large volumes of water to low-lying depressions and stream flow. Hydrograph hysteresis and similarity between monitoring sites is important for understanding the space–time variability of hydrologic responses across the “hillslope–depression–stream” continuum. In this study, the hysteretic feature of hydrographs was assessed by characterizing the loop-like relationships between responses at upstream sites relative to subsurface discharge at the outlet of a small karst catchment. A classification of hydrograph responses based on the multi-scale smoothing Kernel -derived distance classifies the hydrograph responses on the basis of similarities between hillslope and depression sites, and those at the catchment outlet. Results demonstrate that the temporal and spatial variability of hydrograph hysteresis and similarity between hillslope flow and outlet stream flow can be explained by the local heterogeneity of depression aquifer. Large depression storage deficits emerging in the highly heterogeneous aquifer produce strong hysteresis and multiple relationships of upstream hydrographs relative to the outlet subsurface discharge. In contrast, when depression storage deficits are filled during consecutive rainfall events, depression hydrographs at the high permeability sites are almost synchronous or exhibit a monotonous function with the hydrographs at the outlet. This reduced hydrograph hysteresis enhances preferential flow paths in fractured rocks and conduits that can accelerate the hillslope flow to the outlet. Therefore, classification of hydrograph similarities between any upstream sites and the catchment outlet can help to identify the dominant hydrological functions in the heterogeneous karst catchment.     

Are peatlands in different states with respect to their thermodynamic behaviour? A simple test of peatland energy and entropy budgets

Whilst all ecosystems must obey the second law of thermodynamics, these physical bounds and controls on ecosystem evolution and development are largely ignored across the ecohydrological literature. To unravel the importance of these underlying restraints on ecosystem form and function, and their power to inform our scientific understanding, we have calculated the entropy budget of a range of peat ecosystems. We hypothesize that less disturbed peatlands are ‘near equilibrium’ with respect to the second law of thermodynamics and thus respond to change by minimizing entropy production. This ‘near equilibrium’ state is best achieved by limiting evaporative losses. Alternatively, peatlands ‘far-from-equilibrium’ respond to a change in energy inputs by maximizing entropy production which is best achieved by increasing evapotranspiration. To test these alternatives this study examined the energy balance time series from seven peatlands across a disturbance gradient. We estimate the entropy budgets for each and determine how a change in net radiation (ΔR_n) was transferred to a change in latent heat flux (ΔλE). The study showed that: (i) The transfer of net radiation to latent heat differed significantly between peatlands. One group transferred up to 64% of the change in net radiation to a change in latent heat flux, while the second transferred as little as 27%. (ii) Sites that transferred the most energy to latent heat flux were those that produced the greatest entropy. The study shows that an ecosystem could be ‘near equilibrium’ rather than ‘far from equilibrium’.     

Modeling core-scale permeability anisotropy in highly bioturbated “tight oil” reservoir rocks

A high-resolution simulation model of a heterogeneous low-permeability rock sample is used to investigate the effects of physical and biogenic sedimentary structures on scaling and anisotropy of absolute permeability at the core scale. Several simulation sub-samples with random locations and volumes were also selected for evaluation of the effects of scale and lithological composition on the calculated permeability. Vertical and horizontal permeability values (from whole core simulation) are in good agreement with routine core analysis (RCA) measurements from offsetting cores. Despite relatively good reservoir quality associated with geobodies of biogenic and relic bedding structures, results from the full diameter core simulation demonstrate that their limited volumetric abundance and restricted connectivity prevent these features from controlling fluid flow in these rocks. In fact, permeability seems to be dominated by the tighter encasing matrix, which exhibits average permeability values very close to those reported from RCA. Geometric averaging offers a better representation for the upscaling of horizontal permeability datasets; whereas, both geometric and harmonic averaging work similarly well for the vertical measurements. The methodology used in this work is particularly applicable to the detailed characterization of reservoir rocks with a high degree of heterogeneity caused by biological reworking and diagenesis.     

Extreme flows and unusual water levels near a Caribbean coral reef: was this a case of a “perfect storm”?

Observations of currents aimed to study the flow near a spawning aggregation reef, Gladden Spit off the coast of Belize, reveal unusually strong currents on 19–20 October 2009 (the current speed was over 1?m?s^?1, when the mean and standard deviation are 0.2?±?0.12?m?s^?1). During this short time, the water level was raised by 60–70?cm above normal in one place, but lowered by 10–20?cm in another location just 2?km away. The temperature dropped by over 2°C within a few hours. Analyses of local and remote sensing data suggest that a rare combination of an offshore Caribbean cyclonic eddy, a short-lived local tropical storm, and a Spring tide, all occurred at the same time and creating a “perfect storm” condition that resulted in the unusual event. High-resolution simulations and momentum balance analysis demonstrate how the unique shape of the coral reef amplified the coastal current through nonlinear flow–topography interactions. The suggested mechanism for the water level change is different than the classical wind-driven storm surge process. The study has implications for the influence of external forcing on mixing processes and physical–biological interactions near coral reefs.     

Evaluation of snow water equivalent datasets over the Saint‐Maurice river basin region of southern Québec

A 10‐km gridded snow water equivalent (SWE) dataset is developed over the Saint‐Maurice River basin region in southern Québec from kriging of observed snow survey data for evaluation of SWE products. The gridded SWE dataset covers 1980–2014 and is based on manual gravimetric snow surveys carried out on February 1, March 1, March 15, April 1, and April 15 of each snow season, which captures the annual maximum SWE (SWEM) with a mean interpolation error of ±19%. The dataset is used to evaluate SWEM from a range of sources including satellite retrievals, reanalyses, Canadian regional climate models, and the Canadian Meteorological Centre operational snow depth analysis. We also evaluate a number of solid precipitation datasets to determine their contribution to systematic errors in estimated SWEM. None of the evaluated datasets is able to provide estimates of SWEM that are within operational requirements of ±15% error, and insufficient solid precipitation is determined to be one of the main reasons. The Climate System Forecast Reanalysis is the only dataset where snowfall is sufficiently large to generate SWEM values comparable to observations. Inconsistencies in precipitation are also found to have a strong impact on year‐to‐year variability in SWEM dataset performance and spread. Version 3.6.1 of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme land surface scheme driven with ERA‐Interim output downscaled by Version 5.0.1 of the Canadian Regional Climate Model was the best physically based model at explaining the observed spatial and temporal variability in SWEM (root‐mean‐square error [RMSE] = 33%) and has potential for lower error with adjusted precipitation. Operational snow products relying on the real‐time snow depth observing network performed poorly due to a lack of real‐time data and the strong local scale variability of point snow depth observations. The results underscore the need for more effort to be invested in improving solid precipitation estimates for use in snow hydrology applications.     

Entanglement of New Zealand fur seals in man-made debris at Kaikoura, New Zealand

New Zealand fur seals in the Kaikoura region breed near a town with expanding tourist and fishing industries and commonly come ashore entangled in nets and plastic debris. However, the rate at which entanglement occurs was previously unknown. A decade of Department of Conservation seal callout data was analysed to determine the level of entanglement in the region and the most common debris type. Monitoring of adult female fur seals released from entanglement provided information on the potential for serious wounds to heal and survivorship of released individuals. Entanglement rates of pinnipeds in Kaikoura are some of the highest reported world-wide (average range: 0.6-2.8%) with green trawl net (42%), and plastic strapping tape (31%) together contributing the most to debris types. Nearly half of the reported entangled seals are successfully released (43%) and post-release monitoring shows that with appropriate intervention the chance of an individual surviving even with a significant entanglement wound is high. Our study demonstrates that while entanglement in the region is high, a successful intervention protocol may help reduce the potential for entanglement-related mortality in the region.     

Relationship between footwall composition,crustal contamination,and fluid–rock interaction in the Platreef,Bushveld Complex,South Africa

In the northern limb of the 2.06-Ga Bushveld Complex, the Platreef is a platinum group elements (PGE)-, Cu-, and Ni-mineralized zone of pyroxenite that developed at the intrusion margin. From north to south, the footwall rocks of the Platreef change from Archaean granite to dolomite, hornfels, and quartzite. Where the footwall is granite, the Sr-isotope system is more strongly perturbed than where the footwall is Sr-poor dolomite, in which samples show an approximate isochron relationship. The Nd-isotope system for samples of pyroxenite and hanging wall norite shows an approximate isochron relationship with an implied age of 2.17 ± 0.2 Ga and initial Nd-isotope ratio of 0.5095. Assuming an age of 2.06 Ga, the ɛNd values range from −6.2 to −9.6 (ave. −7.8, n = 17) and on average are slightly more negative than the Main Zone of the Bushveld. These data are consistent with local contamination of an already contaminated magma of Main Zone composition. The similarity in isotope composition between the Platreef pyroxenites and the hanging wall norites suggests a common origin. Where the country rock is dolomite, the Platreef has generally higher plagioclase and pyroxene δ ¹⁸O values, and this indicates assimilation of the immediate footwall. Throughout the Platreef, there is considerable petrographic evidence for sub-solidus interaction with fluids, and the Δ _{plagioclase–pyroxene} values range from −2 to +6, which indicates interaction at both high and low temperatures. Whole-rock and mineral δD values suggest that the Platreef interacted with both magmatic and meteoric water, and the lack of disturbance to the Sr-isotope system suggests that fluid–rock interaction took place soon after emplacement. Where the footwall is granite, less negative δD values suggest a greater involvement of meteoric water. Consistently higher values of Δ _{plagioclase–pyroxene} in the Platreef pyroxenites and hanging wall norites in contact with dolomite suggest prolonged interaction with CO₂-rich fluid derived from decarbonation of the footwall rocks. The overprint of post crystallization fluid–rock interaction is the probable cause of the previously documented lack of correlation between PGE and sulfide content on the small scale. The Platreef in contact with dolomite is the focus of the highest PGE grades, and this suggests that dolomite contamination played a role in PGE concentration and deposition, but the exact link remains obscure. It is a possibility that the CO₂ produced by decarbonation of assimilated dolomite enhanced the process of PGE scavenging by sulfide precipitation.     

Linking tracers,water age and conceptual models to identify dominant runoff processes in a sparsely monitored humid tropical catchment

Assessing catchment runoff response remains a key research frontier because of limitations in current observational techniques to fully characterize water source areas and transit times in diverse geographical environments. Here, we report a study that combines empirical data with modelling to identify dominant runoff processes in a sparsely monitored humid tropical catchment. The analysis integrated isotope tracers into conceptual rainfall–runoff models of varying complexity (from 5 to 11 calibrated parameters) that are able to simulate discharge and tracer concentrations and track the evolving age of stream water exiting the catchment. The model structures can be seen as competing hypotheses of catchment functioning and were simultaneously calibrated against uncertain streamflow gaugings and a 2‐year daily isotope rainfall–runoff record. Comparison of the models was facilitated using global parameter sensitivity analysis and the resulting effect on calibration. We show that a variety of tested model structures reproduced water and tracer dynamics in stream, but the simpler models failed to adequately reproduce both. The resulting water age distributions of the tested models varied significantly with little similarity between the stream water age and stored water age distributions. The sensitivity analysis revealed that only some of the more complex models (from eight parameters) could be better constrained to infer more plausible water age distributions and catchment storage estimates. These models indicated that the age of water stored in the catchment is generally older compared with the age of water fluxes, with evapotranspiration age being younger compared with streamflow. However, the water age distributions followed a similar temporal behaviour dominated by climatic seasonality. Stream water ages increased during the dry season (greater than 1 year) and decreased with increased streamflow (a few weeks old) during the wet season. We further show that the ratios of the streamwater age to stored water age distribution and the water age distribution of actual evapotranspiration to the stored water age distribution from constrained models could potentially serve as useful hydrological indicators of catchment functioning. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.