Near-shore swell estimation from a global wind-wave model: Spectral process,linear, and artificial neural network models

Estimation of swell conditions in coastal regions is important for a variety of public, government, and research applications. Driving a model of the near-shore wave transformation from an offshore global swell model such as NOAA WaveWatch3 is an economical means to arrive at swell size estimates at particular locations of interest. Recently, some work (e.g. Browne et al. [Browne, M., Strauss, D., Castelle, B., Blumenstein, M., Tomlinson, R., 2006. Local swell estimation and prediction from a global wind-wave model. IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters 3 (4), 462–466.]) has examined an artificial neural network (ANN) based, empirical approach to wave estimation. Here, we provide a comprehensive evaluation of two data driven approaches to estimating waves near-shore (linear and ANN), and also contrast these with a more traditional spectral wave simulation model (SWAN). Performance was assessed on data gathered from a total of 17 near-shore locations, with heterogenous geography and bathymetry, around the continent of Australia over a 7 month period. It was found that the ANNs out-performed SWAN and the non-linear architecture consistently out-performed the linear method. Variability in performance and differential performance with regard to geographical location could largely be explained in terms of the underlying complexity of the local wave transformation.     

The effects on water mass formation of surface mixed layer timedependence and entrainment fluxes

An air-sea buoyancy flux out of the ocean between the surface outcroppings of different isopycnals must be balanced by a convergence of advective and diffusive fluxes of buoyancy across those isopycnals (Walin, 1982; Tziperman, 1986; Garrett et al., 1995). For steady conditions, the diapycnal diffusive flux due to vertical mixing in the surface mixed layer is very small, so that the advective buoyancy flux dominates (Speer, 1993; Garrett et al., 1995). The associated advective buoyancy flux can then be used to estimate the volume flux of water out of the base of the surface mixed layer. The resulting thermodynamic algorithm provides a valuable estimate of water mass formation in the ocean.In contrast, for the time-dependent real ocean with horizontal and vertical gradients of the horizontal buoyancy gradient, diurnal and seasonal mixed layer deepening and entrainment in the presence of a buoyancy jump at the base of the mixed layer contributes to the annual volume flux out of the base of the deepest (wintertime) mixed layer. The mismatch between the predictions of the ideal algorithm and measured rates of water mass formation (Speer, 1997) may thus be partly due to mixed layer processes rather than diapycnal mixing in the thermocline.     

Meiofauna of the deep Eastern Mediterranean Sea: distribution and abundance in relation to bacterial biomass, organic matter composition and other environmental factors

Quantitative information on the abundance and biomass of metazoan meiofauna was obtained from samples collected at 15 deep-sea stations in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea (533–2400m). Meiofaunal abundance was compared to bacterial biomass and other environmental factors such as the total sedimentary organic matter content, the concentrations of the main biochemical classes of organic compounds (i.e. proteins, carbohydrates and lipids) and to ATP. To estimate the sedimentation potential of primary organic matter, sediment bound chloroplastic pigment equivalents (CPE) were assayed. Meiofaunal density was very low ranging from 4 ind.10cm⁻² (Station A4, 1658m depth) to 290 ind.10cm⁻² (Station A12, 636m depth). Nematodes were the numerically dominant taxon (68% of total meiofauna) and were usually confined to the top 6cm of the sediments. Total meiofaunal biomass ranged from 2.78μgC 10cm⁻² (Station A4) to 598.34μgC 10cm⁻² (Station 15A). There was a significant decrease in the density of metazoan meiofauna with water depth. Bacterial biomass largely dominated the total biomass (as the sum of bacterial and meiofaunal biomass) with an average of 73.2% and accounted for 35.8% of the living biomass (as ATP carbon) whereas meiofaunal biomass accounted only for 6.56%. Bacterial biomass was significantly related to the DNA concentrations of the sediment. A significant correlation between ATP concentration and CPE content was also found. No correlations were found between meiofauna, ATP and CPE, or between meiofauna and bacterial parameters. The significant relationship between meiofaunal density and the ratio of labile organic matter/total organic matter indicates that deep-sea meiofauna inhabiting an extremely oligotrophic environment (such as the Eastern Mediterranean) may be more nutritionally dependent upon the quality than on the quantity of sedimentary organic matter.     

Improving deep decarbonization modelling capacity for developed and developing country contexts

Energy models are essential for the development of national or regional deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs), providing the necessary analytical framework to systematically explore the system transitions that are required. However, this is challenging due to the long time horizon, the numerous data requirements and the need for transparent, credible approaches that can provide insights into complex transitions.

This article explores how this challenge has been met to date, based on a review of the literature and the experiences of practitioners, drawing in particular on the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP), a collaborative effort by 16 national modelling teams. The article finds that there are a range of modelling approaches that have been used across different country contexts, chosen for different reasons, with recognized strengths and weaknesses. The key motivations for use of a given approach include being fit-for-purpose, having in-country capacity and the intertwined goals of transparency, communicability and policy credibility.

From the review, a conceptual decision framework for DDP analysis is proposed. This three step process incorporates policy priorities, national characteristics and the model-agnostic principles that drive model choices, considering the needs and capabilities of developed and developing countries, and subject to data and analytical practicalities. Finally an agenda for the further development of modelling approaches is proposed, which is vital for strengthening capacity. These include a focus on model linking, incorporating behaviour and policy impacts, the flexibility to handle distinctive energy systems, incorporating wider environmental constraints and the development of entry-level tools. The latter three are critical for application in developing countries.

Policy relevance

Following the Paris Agreement, it is essential that modelling approaches are available to enable governments to plan how to decarbonize their economies in the long term. This article takes stock of current practices, identifies the strengths and weaknesses of existing approaches and proposes how capacity can be strengthened. It also provides some practical guidance on the process of choosing modelling approaches, given national priorities and circumstances. This is particularly relevant as countries revisit their Nationally Determined Contributions to meet the global objective of remaining well below a 2°C average global temperature increase.     

Establishing a framework for Open Geographic Information science

When conducting research within a framework of Geographic Information Science (GISc), the scientific validity of this work can be argued as highly dependent upon the extent to which the methods employed are reproducible, and that, in the strictest sense, can only be fully achieved by implementing transparent workflows that utilize both open source software and openly available data. After considering the scientific implications of non-reproducible methods, we provide a review of both open source Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and openly available data, before describing an integrated model for Open GISc. We conclude with a critical review of this embryonic paradigm, with directions for future development in supporting spatial data infrastructure.     

Morphology and crustal structure of a small transform fault along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge: The Atlantis Fracture Zone

The Atlantis Fracture Zone (30° N) is one of the smallest transform faults along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge with a spatial offset of 70 km and an age offset of ~ 6 Ma. The morphology of the Atlantis Fracture Zone is typical of that of slow-slipping transforms. The transform valley is 15–20 km wide and 2–4 km deep. The locus of strike-slip deformation is confined to a narrow band a few kilometers wide. Terrain created at the outside corners of the transform is characterized by ridges which curve toward the ridge-transform intersections and depressions which resemble nodal basins. Hooked ridges are not observed on the transform side of the ridge-transform intersections. Results of the three-dimensional inversion of the surface magnetic field over our survey area suggest that accretionary processes are sufficiently organized within 3–4 km of the transform fault to produce lineated magnetic anomalies. The magnetization solution further documents a 15-km, westward relocation of the axis of accretion immediately south of the transform about 0.25 Ma ago. The Atlantis Transform is associated with a band of high mantle Bouguer anomalies, suggesting the presence of high densities in the crust and/or mantle along the transform, or anomalously thin crust beneath the transform. Assuming that all the mantle Bouguer anomalies are due to crustal thickness variations, we calculate that the crust may be 2–3 km thinner than a reference 6-km thickness beneath the transform valley, and 2–3 km thicker beneath the mid-points of the spreading segments which bound the transform. Our results indicate that crustal thinning is not uniform along the strike of the fracture zone. Based on studies of the state of compensation of the transform, we conclude that the depth anomaly associated with the fracture zone valley is not compensated everywhere by thin crust. Instead, the regional relationship between bathymetry and gravity is best explained by compensation with an elastic plate with an effective thickness of ~ 4 km or greater. However, the remaining isostatic anomalies indicate that there are large variations away from this simple model which are likely due to variations in crustal thickness and density near the transform.     

Biotic variation in coastal water bodies in Sussex, England: Implications for saline lagoons

Coastal water bodies are a heterogeneous resource typified by high spatial and temporal variability and threatened by anthropogenic impacts. This includes saline lagoons, which support a specialist biota and are a priority habitat for nature conservation. This paper describes the biotic variation in coastal water bodies in Sussex, England, in order to characterise the distinctiveness of the saline lagoon community and elucidate environmental factors that determine its distribution. Twenty-eight coastal water bodies were surveyed for their aquatic flora and invertebrate fauna and a suite of exploratory environmental variables compiled. Ordination and cluster analyses were used to examine patterns in community composition and relate these to environmental parameters. Biotic variation in the coastal water body resource was high. Salinity was the main environmental parameter explaining the regional distribution of taxa; freshwater and saline assemblages were evident and related to sea water ingress. Freshwater sites were indicated by the plant Myriophyllum spicatum and gastropod mollusc Lymnaea peregra, while more saline communities supported marine and brackish water taxa, notably a range of chlorophytic algae and the bivalve mollusc Cerastoderma glaucum. Site community differences were also related to bank slope and parameters describing habitat heterogeneity. A saline lagoon community was discerned within the matrix of biotic variation consisting of specialist lagoonal species with associated typically euryhaline taxa. For fauna, the latter were the molluscs Abra tenuis and Hydrobia ulvae, and the crustaceans Corophium volutator and Palaemonetes varians, and for flora they were the algae Ulva lactuca, Chaetomorpha mediterranea, Cladophora spp. and Enteromorpha intestinalis. One non-native polychaete species, Ficopomatus enigmaticus, also strongly influenced community structure within the lagoonal resource. The community was not well defined as specialist and associated taxa were distributed throughout the spectrum of sites surveyed. Implications for the identification and conservation of saline lagoons are discussed.