Indian Ocean and monsoon coupled interactions in a warming environment

Several studies have drawn attention to the steady warming of the equatorial and tropical Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperature (SST) observed during recent decades. An intriguing aspect of the IO SST warming trend is that it is has been accompanied by a pronounced weakening of the large-scale boreal summer monsoon circulation. Based on a detailed diagnostic analysis of observed datasets, reanalysis products and IPCC AR4 coupled model output, this study examines how the observed changes in the summer monsoon circulation could have contributed to this SST warming trend. The present results reveal that the weakening trend of the summer monsoon cross-equatorial flow has favored a reorientation of surface westerlies towards the equatorial IO during recent decades, relative to summer monsoons of earlier decades, which were dominated by stronger cross-equatorial flow. Our analysis suggests that the weakening of the summer monsoon cross-equatorial flow has in turn significantly accelerated the SST warming in the central equatorial IO. While the trend in the equatorial westerlies has promoted downwelling and thermocline deepening in the eastern equatorial IO, the central equatorial IO warming is attributed to reduced upwelling in response to a weakening trend of the wind-stress curl. The observed trends in Indian monsoon rainfall and the near-equatorial SST warming are shown to be closely related to variations in the meridional gradient of the monsoon zonal winds. An examination of the twentieth century simulations from 22 IPCC AR4 models, suggests that some models capture the recent equatorial IO warming associated with the weakened summer monsoon circulation reasonably well. The individual member models, however, exhibit significant inter-model variations in representing the observed response of the IO and monsoon coupled system.     

High resolution simulation of the South Asian monsoon using a variable resolution global climate model

This study examines the feasibility of using a variable resolution global general circulation model (GCM), with telescopic zooming and enhanced resolution (~35 km) over South Asia, to better understand regional aspects of the South Asian monsoon rainfall distribution and the interactions between monsoon circulation and precipitation. For this purpose, two sets of ten member realizations are produced with and without zooming using the LMDZ (Laboratoire Meteorologie Dynamique and Z stands for zoom) GCM. The simulations without zoom correspond to a uniform 1° × 1° grid with the same total number of grid points as in the zoom version. So the grid of the zoomed simulations is finer inside the region of interest but coarser outside. The use of these finer and coarser resolution ensemble members allows us to examine the impact of resolution on the overall quality of the simulated regional monsoon fields. It is found that the monsoon simulation with high-resolution zooming greatly improves the representation of the southwesterly monsoon flow and the heavy precipitation along the narrow orography of the Western Ghats, the northeastern mountain slopes and northern Bay of Bengal (BOB). A realistic Monsoon Trough (MT) is also noticed in the zoomed simulation, together with remarkable improvements in representing the associated precipitation and circulation features, as well as the large-scale organization of meso-scale convective systems over the MT region. Additionally, a more reasonable simulation of the monsoon synoptic disturbances (lows and disturbances) along the MT is noted in the high-resolution zoomed simulation. On the other hand, the no-zoom version has limitations in capturing the depressions and their movement, so that the MT zone is relatively dry in this case. Overall, the results from this work demonstrate the usefulness of the high-resolution variable resolution LMDZ model in realistically capturing the interactions among the monsoon large-scale dynamics, the synoptic systems and the meso-scale convective systems, which are essential elements of the South Asian monsoon system.     

The Tau Model for Data Redundancy and Information Combination in Earth Sciences: Theory and Application

Many decision-making processes in the Earth sciences require the combination of multiple data originating from diverse sources. These data are often indirect and uncertain, and their combination would call for a probabilistic approach. These data are also partially redundant with each other or with all others taken jointly. This overlap in information arises due to a variety of reasons—because the data arises from the same geology, because they originate from the same location or the same measurement device, etc. The proposed tau model combines partially redundant data, each taking the form of a prior probability for the event being assessed to occur given that single datum. The parameters of that tau model measure the additional contribution brought by any single datum over that of all previously considered data; they are data sequence-dependent and also data value-dependent. Data redundancy depends on the sequence in which the data is considered and also on the data values themselves. However, for a given sequence, averaging the tau model parameters over all possible data values leads to exact analytical expressions and corresponding approximations and inference avenues. Information on multiple-point connectivity of permeability arrives from core data, well-test data and seismic data which are defined over varying supports with complex redundancy between these information sources. In order to compute these tau weights for determining connectivity, one needs a model of data redundancy, here expressed as a vectorial training image (Ti) constructed using a prior conceptual knowledge of geology and the physics of data measurement. From such a vectorial Ti, the tau weights can be computed exactly. Neglecting data redundancy leads to an over-compounding of individual data information and the possible risk of making extreme decisions.     

Predicting sediment transport by interrill overland flow on rough surfaces

Modelling soil erosion requires an equation for predicting the sediment transport capacity by interrill overland flow on rough surfaces. The conventional practice of partitioning total shear stress into grain and form shear stress and predicting transport capacity using grain shear stress lacks rigour and is prone to underestimation. This study therefore explores the possibility that inasmuch as surface roughness affects flow hydraulic variables which, in turn, determine transport capacity, there may be one or more hydraulic variables which capture the effect of surface roughness on transport capacity suffciently well for good predictions of transport capacity to be achieved from data on these variables alone. To investigate this possibility, regression analyses were performed on data from 1506 flume experiments in which discharge, slope, water temperature, rainfall intensity, and roughness size, shape and concentration were varied. The analyses reveal that 89·8 per cent of the variance in transport capacity can be accounted for by excess flow power and flow depth. Including roughness size and concentration in the regression improves that explained variance by only 3·5 per cent. Evidently, flow depth, when used in combination with excess flow power, largely captures the effect of surface roughness on transport capacity. This finding promises to simplify greatly the task of developing a general sediment equation for interrill overland flow on rough surfaces. Copyright © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late holocene storm records from lower reaches of Narmada valley,Western India

Storms from the Arabian Sea are the most significant meteorological feature in western India that brings extreme rainy days together with catastrophic flooding. The present study reports two such palaeo-storm horizons at 1.16 m and 3.2 m above the present day water level in the Narmada channel, 56 km inland based on sedimentology and foraminiferal records. Both the horizons show similar sediment facies and foraminiferal assemblage. The present findings instigate to look for such new sites and build palaeo-storm records for western India.     

Prediction of shoreline behaviour for Madras, India-a numerical approach

A satellite port has been proposed about 14.8 km north of Madras port on the east coast of India. As the interference of a satellite port with the existing pattern of longshore sediment transport will generate coastal imbalance in the region, a numerical model study involving sediment transport and combined wave refraction-diffraction was conducted to predict the shoreline behaviour. A realistic approach to the study was made to meet the objectives by considering wave height-wave period distributions in the region and duration and sequence of their occurrence during major monsoon seasons. This method of analysis enabled us to predict: (i) the extent of general shoreline advancement, particularly in front of a tidal inlet—a source of the cooling water requirement for an existing thermal power plant; (ii) the extent of the coastal region that will be affected owing to recession of shoreline and its impact on: (a) the fishing community living along the coastal stretch; (b) the national highway running along the coast; and (c) the changes in nearshore bathymetry. Based on the studies, management plans were drawn to safeguard the coastal region from imbalances that will arise out of construction of the satellite port. This paper highlights the effects of a satellite port on the coastal region and the need for proper management.     

Anoxia over the western continental shelf of India: bacterial indications of intrinsic nitrification feeding denitrification

Studies on the Arabian Sea coastal anoxia have been of immense interest, but despite its ecological significance there is sparse understanding of the microbes involved. Hence, observations were carried out off Goa (15 degrees 30'N, 72 degrees 40'E to 15 degrees 30'N, 72 degrees 59'E) to understand the processes that mediate the changes in various inorganic nitrogen species in the water column during anoxia. Water column chemistry showed a clear distinct oxic environment in the month of April and anoxic condition in October. Our study based on microbial signatures indicated that oxygen deficit appeared as a well-defined nucleus almost 40 km away from the coast during the oxic period (April) and spreads there after to the entire water column synchronizing with the water chemistry. Striking results of net changes in inorganic nitrogen species in nitrification blocked and unblocked experimental systems show that denitrification is the predominant process in the water column consuming available nitrate ( approximately 0.5 microM) to near zero levels within approximately 72 h of incubation. These observations have been supported by concomitant increase in nitrite concentration ( approximately 4 microM). Similar studies on denitrification-blocked incubations, demonstrate the potential of nitrification to feed denitrification. Nitrification could contribute almost 4.5 microM to the total nitrate pool. It was found that the relation between ammonium and total dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) pool (r=0.98, p<0.001, n=122) was significant compared to the latter with nitrite and nitrate. The occurrence of high ammonium under low phosphate conditions corroborates our observations that ammonium does not appear to be locked under low oxygen regimes. It is suggested that ammonium actively produced by detrital breakdown (ammonification) is efficiently consumed through nitrification process. The three processes in concert viz. ammonification, nitrification and denitrification appear to operate in more temporal and spatial proximity than hitherto appreciated in these systems and this gives additional cues on the absence of measurable nitrate at surface waters, which was earlier attributed only to efficient algal uptake. Hence we hypothesize that the alarming nitrous oxide input into the atmosphere could be due to high productivity driven tighter nitrification-denitrification coupling, rather than denitrification driven by extraneous nitrate.     

Political ecology of tiger conservation in India: Adverse effects of banning customary practices in a protected area

Protected areas have had significant impacts on local communities primarily through the physical removal of people. In some instances, people continue to live within protected areas due to the inability of the state to evict them. The restrictions on livelihoods placed on people living inside protected areas lead to in situ displacement. We show how conservation enclosures in the Biligiri Rangaswamy Temple Tiger Reserve have produced a class of people that the state ‘lets die’ by banning customary practices such as fire use, hunting and harvesting of forest produce. Using longitudinal ethnographic, socio‐economic and ecological data, we demonstrate that conservation policy has alienated indigenous forest dwellers from their agricultural and forest‐land. The outcomes of conservation policy include dispossession through increased crop losses, reduced income from agriculture and forest produce, as well as a forest that is dominated by weeds due to fire suppression. The ban on hunting in particular has increased wildlife densities, which has enabled the state to accumulate revenues through the establishment of wildlife tourism facilities. All in all, centralized protected area governance has changed the relationships among people, forest and the state in a way that has produced adverse effects for both livelihoods and the ecosystem.