Risk analysis for remediation of contaminated sites: the geostatistical approach

The assessment of the risks associated with contamination by elevated levels of pollutants is a major issue in most parts of the world. The risk arises from the presence of a pollutant and from the uncertainty associated with estimating its concentration, extent and trajectory. The uncertainty in the assessment comes from the difficulty of measuring the pollutant concentration values accurately at any given location and the impossibility of measuring it at all locations within a study zone. Estimations tend to give smoothed versions of reality, with the smoothing effect being inversely proportional to the amount of data. If risk is a measure of the probability of pollutant concentrations exceeding specified thresholds, then the variability is the key feature in risk assessment and risk analysis. For this reason, geostatistical simulations provide an appropriate way of quantifying risk by simulating possible “realities” and determining how many of these realities exceed the contamination thresholds, and, finally, provides a means of visualizing risk and the geological causes of risk. This study concerns multivariate simulations of organic and inorganic pollutants measured in terrain samples to assess the uncertainty for the risk analysis of a contaminated site, an industrial site in northern Italy that has to be remediated. The main geostatistical tools are used to model the local uncertainty of pollutant concentrations, which prevail at any unsampled site, in particular by means of stochastic simulation. These models of uncertainty have been used in the decision-making processes to identify the areas targeted for remediation.     

New thermoelastic parameters of natural <Emphasis Type="Italic">C</Emphasis>2/<Emphasis Type="Italic">c</Emphasis> omphacite

The compressibility at room temperature and the thermal expansion at room pressure of two disordered crystals (space group C2/c) obtained by annealing a natural omphacite sample (space group P2/n) of composition close to Jd₅₆Di₄₄ and Jd₅₅Di₄₅, respectively, have been studied by single-crystal X-ray diffraction. Using a Birch–Murnaghan equation of state truncated at the third order [BM3-EoS], we have obtained the following coefficients: V ₀ = 421.04(7) Å³, K _T0 = 119(2) GPa, K′ = 5.7(6). A parameterized form of the BM3 EoS was used to determine the axial moduli of a, b and c. The anisotropy scheme is β _c  ≤ β _a  ≤ β _b , with an anisotropy ratio 1.05:1.00:1.07. A fitting of the lattice variation as a function of temperature, allowing for linear dependency of the thermal expansion coefficient on the temperature, yielded α_V(1bar,303K) = 2.64(2) × 10⁻⁵ K⁻¹ and an axial thermal expansion anisotropy of α _b  ≫ α _a  > α _c . Comparison of our results with available data on compressibility and thermal expansion shows that while a reasonable ideal behaviour can be proposed for the compressibility of clinopyroxenes in the jadeite–diopside binary join [K _T0 as a function of Jd molar %: K _T0 = 106(1) GPa + 0.28(2) × Jd_(mol%)], the available data have not sufficient quality to extract the behaviour of thermal expansion for the same binary join in terms of composition.     

Leucogranite intruding the South Tibetan Detachment in western Nepal: implications for exhumation models in the Himalayas

The most popular models regarding the exhumation of the Greater Himalayan Sequence (GHS), such as extrusion, channel flow, critical taper and wedge extrusion, require prolonged activity of the two bounding shear zones and faults, the Main Central Thrust (MCT) and the South Tibetan Detachment (STD). We present the crystallization age of an undeformed leucogranite that intrudes both the GHS and the Tethyan Himalaya Sequence (THS). Zircon and monazite U‐Pb ages in the leucogranite give ages between 23 and 25 Ma constraining, at that time, the end of shearing along the STD. Our results limit the contemporaneous activity of the MCT and STD to a short period of time (~1–2 Ma) and thus argue against exhumation models requiring prolonged contemporaneous activity of the MCT and STD.     

Correlation of welded ignimbrites on Pantelleria (Strait of Sicily) using paleomagnetism

Although the oldest volcanic rocks exposed at Pantelleria (Strait of Sicily) are older than 300 ka, most of the island is covered by the 45–50 ka Green Tuff ignimbrite, thought to be related to the Cinque Denti caldera, and younger lavas and scoria cones. Pre-50 ka rocks (predominantly rheomorphic ignimbrites) are exposed at isolated sea cliffs, and their stratigraphy and chronology are not completely resolved. Based on volcanic stratigraphy and K/Ar dating, it has been proposed that the older La Vecchia caldera is related to ignimbrite Q (114 ka), and that ignimbrites F, D, and Z (106, 94, and 79 ka, respectively) were erupted after caldera formation. We report here the paleomagnetic directions obtained from 23 sites in ignimbrite P (133 ka) and four younger ignimbrites, and from an uncorrelated (and loosely dated) welded lithic breccia thought to record a caldera-forming eruption. The paleosecular variation of the geomagnetic field recorded by ignimbrites is used as correlative tool, with an estimated time resolution in the order of 100 years. We find that ignimbrites D and Z correspond, in good agreement with recent Ar/Ar ages constraining the D/Z eruption to 87 ka. The welded lithic breccia correlates with a thinner breccia lying just below ignimbrite P at another locality, implying that collapse of the La Vecchia caldera took place at ~130–160 ka. This caldera was subsequently buried by ignimbrites P, Q, F, and D/Z. Paleomagnetic data also show that the northern caldera margin underwent a ~10° west–northwest (outwards) tilting after emplacement of ignimbrite P, possibly recording magma resurgence in the crust.     

Representing the Sensitivity of Convective Cloud Systems to Tropospheric Humidity in General Circulation Models

Convective cloud variability on many times scales can be viewed as having three major components: a suppressed phase of shallow and congestus clouds, a disturbed phase of deep convective clouds, and a mature phase of transition to stratiform upper-level clouds. Cumulus parameterization development has focused primarily on the second phase until recently. Consequently, many parameterizations are not sufficiently sensitive to variations in tropospheric humidity. This shortcoming may affect global climate model simulations of climate sensitivity to external forcings, the continental diurnal cycle of clouds and precipitation, and intraseasonal precipitation variability. The lack of sensitivity can be traced in part to underestimated entrainment of environmental air into rising convective clouds and insufficient evaporation of rain into the environment. As a result, the parameterizations produce deep convection too easily while stabilizing the environment too quickly to allow the effects of convective mesoscale organization to occur. Recent versions of some models have increased their sensitivity to tropospheric humidity and improved some aspects of their variability, but a parameterization of mesoscale organization is still absent from most models. Evidence about the effect of these uncertainties on climate change projections suggests that climate modelers should make improved simulation of high and convective clouds as high a priority as better representations of low clouds.     

The occurrence of Mt Barca flank eruption in the evolution of the NW periphery of Etna volcano (Italy)

Geological surveys, tephrostratigraphic study, and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age determinations have allowed us to chronologically constrain the geological evolution of the lower NW flank of Etna volcano and to reconstruct the eruptive style of the Mt Barca flank eruption. This peripheral sector of the Mt Etna edifice, corresponding to the upper Simeto valley, was invaded by the Ellittico volcano lava flows between 41 and 29 ka ago when the Mt Barca eruption occurred. The vent of this flank eruption is located at about 15 km away from the summit craters, close to the town of Bronte. The Mt Barca eruption was characterized by a vigorous explosive activity that produced pyroclastic deposits dispersed eastward and minor effusive activity with the emission of a 1.1-km-long lava flow. Explosive activity was characterized by a phreatomagmatic phase followed by a magmatic one. The geological setting of this peripheral sector of the volcano favors the interaction between the rising magma and the shallow groundwater hosted in the volcanic pile resting on the impermeable sedimentary basement. This process produced phreatomagmatic activity in the first phase of the eruption, forming a pyroclastic fall deposit made of high-density, poorly vesicular scoria lapilli and lithic clasts. Conversely, during the second phase, a typical strombolian fall deposit formed. In terms of hazard assessment, the possible occurrence of this type of highly explosive flank eruption, at lower elevation in the densely inhabited areas, increases the volcanic risk in the Etnean region and widens the already known hazard scenario.     

Site effects in the Aterno River Valley (L’Aquila,Italy): comparison between empirical and 2D numerical modelling starting from April 6th 2009 Mw 6.3 earthquake

In this paper, we focused our attention on a cross-section of the Aterno River Valley where a good quality geological and geophysical dataset allowed to reconstruct accurately the geometry and the Vs profiles along all the plane of the section. Its trace is deliberately aligned close to the strong motion stations that recorded the Mw 6.3 (April 6th 2009) L’Aquila earthquake. We analysed strong and weak motion data available at these latter stations as well as at one of the temporary stations installed during the Microzonation activities and located on outcropping bedrock, in proximity of the cross-section. We used the H/V technique to select a reliable reference site and once we found it, we applied the SSR technique to compute amplification functions in correspondence of two strong motion stations. In turn, for both sites we performed a site response numerical modelling with two different 2D codes and we compared simulated versus experimental transfer functions. We found that the cross-section is well constrained based on the very reasonable agreement between results of numerical modelling and earthquake data analysis. We pointed out also a strong amplification of the deposit at the centre of the valley due to the constructive interference of S and surface waves, not predictable by means of 1D numerical modelling. We also compared the H/V as well as the SSR obtained from strong motion data with the ones computed from weak motion finding evidences of non-linearity in soil behaviour.     

Trajectory Studies of Polar Stratospheric Cloud Lidar Observations at Sodankylä (Finland) During SESAME: Comparison with Box Model Results of Particle Evolution

Polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) were observed with the multi-wavelength lidar of the MOANA project (Modelling and Observations of Aerosols in the Northern Atmosphere) during SESAME (Second European Stratospheric Arctic and Mid-latitude Experiment). The physical state, liquid or solid, of the cloud particles can be inferred from the lidar data. Using isentropic back-trajectories to obtain the thermal history of the sampled air masses, it is possible to reconcile most of the observations with current ideas on PSC formation and evolution. When the cloud particles were identified as liquid, changes in the size distribution of the droplets along the trajectory were calculated using a micro-physical box model. Backscatter ratios calculated from the size distributions are in broad agreement with the lidar data, giving confidence in current understanding of the evolution of ternary solution (H2SO4, HNO3 and H2O) droplets.Results from two soundings are shown which bear on the problem of the formation of solid particles. In the first, solid particles were detected. The air mass had cooled to the frost point 12 hours earlier. In the second no solid particles were detected although the air temperature was below the nitric acid trihydrate existence point, and had decreased by 12K in the previous 14 hours.     

A GIS-based approach for gully erosion susceptibility modelling: a test in Sicily, Italy

The aim of this study is to analyze the susceptibility conditions to gully erosion phenomena in the Magazzolo River basin and to test a method that allows for driving the factors selection. The study area is one of the largest (225 km²) watershed of southern Sicily and it is mostly characterized by gentle slopes carved into clayey and evaporitic sediments, except for the northern sector where carbonatic rocks give rise to steep slopes. In order to obtain a quantitative evaluation of gully erosion susceptibility, statistical relationships between the spatial distributions of gullies affecting the area and a set of twelve environmental variables were analyzed. Stereoscopic analysis of aerial photographs dated 2000, and field surveys carried out in 2006, allowed us to map about a thousand landforms produced by linear water erosion processes, classifiable as ephemeral and permanent gullies. The linear density of the gullies, computed on each of the factors classes, was assumed as the function expressing the susceptibility level of the latter. A 40-m digital elevation model (DEM) prepared from 1:10,000-scale topographic maps was used to compute the values of nine topographic attributes (primary: slope, aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, general curvature, tangential curvature; secondary: stream power index; topographic wetness index; LS-USLE factor); from available thematic maps and field checks three other physical attributes (lithology, soil texture, land use) were derived. For each of these variables, a 40-m grid layer was generated, reclassifying the topographic variables according to their standard deviation values. In order to evaluate the controlling role of the selected predictive variables, one-variable susceptibility models, based on the spatial relationships between each single factor and gullies, were produced and submitted to a validation procedure. The latter was carried out by evaluating the predictive performance of models trained on one half of the landform archive and tested on the other. Large differences of accuracy were verified by computing geometric indexes of the validation curves (prediction and success rate curves; ROC curves) drawn for each one-variable model; in particular, soil texture, general curvature and aspect demonstrated a weak or a null influence on the spatial distribution of gullies within the studied area, while, on the contrary, tangential curvature, stream power index and plan curvature showed high predictive skills. Hence, predictive models were produced on a multi-variable basis, by variously combining the one-variable models. The validation of the multi-variables models, which generally indicated quite satisfactory results, were used as a sensitivity analysis tool to evaluate differences in the prediction results produced by changing the set of combined physical attributes. The sensitivity analysis pointed out that by increasing the number of combined environmental variables, an improvement of the susceptibility assessment is produced; this is true with the exception of adding to the multi-variables models a variable, as slope aspect, not correlated to the target variable. The addition of this attribute produces effects on the validation curves that are not distinguishable from noise and, as a consequence, the slope aspect was excluded from the final multi-variables model used to draw the gully erosion susceptibility map of the Magazzolo River basin. In conclusion, the research showed that the validation of one-variable models can be used as a tool for selecting factors to be combined to prepare the best performing multi-variables gully erosion susceptibility model.