Low-cost long-term monitoring of global climate forcings and feedbacks

We describe the rationale for long-term monitoring of global climate forcings and radiative feedbacks as a contribution to interpretation of long-term global temperature change. Our discussion is based on a more detailed study and workshop report (Hansenet al., 1993b). We focus on the potential contribution of a proposed series of inexpensive small satellites, but we discuss also the need for complementary climate process studies and ground-based measurements. Some of these measurements could be made inexpensively by students, providing both valuable climate data and science educational experience.     

Microtremors and volcanic explosions at Stromboli — Part 2

A seismic survey was carried out at Stromboli volcano during August 1973. Statistical and spectral analyses of volcanic tremor and explosion quakes were performed. The statistical analysis has shown that the value of them coefficient in Ishimoto & Iida’s relation is high and that the hourly frequencies of events are fairly constant. The spectral analysis has shown a similarity in shape between tremors and explosion quakes. These events have the dominant frequency of 5 Hz at the craters area.     

Provenance of Oligocene synorogenic sediments of the Ligurian Alps (NW Italy): inferences on belt age and cooling history

Mineral chemistry, ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology on white micas and Apatite Fission Track Thermochronology (AFTT), are applied here to study the provenance of the synorogenic Molare Formation (lowermost unit of the Tertiary Piedmont Basin clastic sequence). The Molare Formation was deposited during transgression onto the Ligurian Alps nappe stack in the Early Oligocene. Depositional facies show that clastic distribution remained transversal, with local sources located just landward from the coastline. Phengite mineral chemistry together with ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar data clearly shows two distinctive source areas, each one mirroring the composition of the basement directly beneath the clastic sequence. Amphibole mineral chemistry allows second order provenance distinctions within each sector, reflecting heterogeneous metamorphic evolution of the bedrock complexes. Integrated ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating and AFTT suggest that, following a fast cooling/exhumation episode of the Ligurian Alps during the Oligocene, very little net uplift has since occurred. This is due to a period of general subsidence from the Oligocene–Late Miocene followed by comparable uplift from Late Miocene–Pliocene to the present. In general our data provide an image of the Ligurian Alps during the Oligocene, which is very similar to the present-day one.This revised version was published online in September 2003.     

Tectonic structure and post-Hercynian evolution of the Serre, Calabrian Arc, southern Italy: Geological, petrological and radiometric evidences

Conflicting opinions exist concerning the structure and the post-Hercynian evolution of the Serre. The present paper deals with these topics on the basis of new geological, petrological and radiometric evidence. The composition of the so-called Stilo and Polia-Copanello units has been redefined. The above domains—former sections of upper and lower Palaeozoic continental crust respectively—came into contact, due to transcurrent movements 130–140 Ma ago. A significant vertical component during the transcurrent movements, probably, exhumed the former section of lower crust. The above domains, juxtaposed, were successively involved as a single kinematic body in the Alpine orogenesis. The results enable us to make inferences for the Calabrian Arc evolution and call attention to similarities between an Austro-Alpine element (Stilo + Polia-Copanello) of the Calabrian chain and a South-Alpine sector of the Alps (Ivrea + Ceneri zones).     

A quantitative approach to trace element and Sr isotope evolution in the Adamello batholith (northern Italy)

A development of De Paolo's mathematical procedure (1981) for magmatic AFC (Assimilation-Fractional Crystallization) processes is discussed with respect to both trace element and Sr isotopic ratio behaviours during the genesis and evolution of Adamello batholith (northern Italy). Resolution of a two equation-system (one relative to ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio variation in a magma generated by an AFC process, the other to its trace element content variations) gives the F (mass of magma at time t/mass of initial magma) and D (bulk partition coefficient) values, by which one can deduce the r (rate of assimilation/rate of crystallization) value during each step of magmatic evolution. This quantitative approach suggests that: 1) there was a common precursor magma for all the Adamello granitoids, with a Mg-rich tholeiitic composition; 2) each intrusive unit appears to have been generated by different extents of AFC; 3) the trace element distribution in the magma seems essentially influenced by mineral fractionation, rather than by the composition of the assimilated crustal material.     

Deep structure of southeastern europe from Rayleigh waves

The analysis of Rayleigh-wave phase velocities up to about 250 s has allowed of deepening structural knowledge, down to several hundred kilometers underneath the triangular array formed by the WWSSN stations Athens-Istanbul-L'Aquila. For the path L'Aquila-Istanbul a lid-to-low velocity channel contrast of variable size is always present, while for the other two paths. Athens-Istanbul and Athens-L'Aquila. two alternative patterns are possible, one indicating the presence of a contrast between lid and low-velocity channel, the other suggesting the absence of significant layering down to depths of about 350 km.     

Time probabilistic evaluation of seismically induced landslide hazard in Irpinia (Southern Italy)

A recently proposed method, which incorporates the Newmark model to evaluate the earthquake-induced landslide hazard at regional scale, was applied to Irpinia, one of the most seismically active regions of Italy. The method adopts a probabilistic approach to calculate values of critical acceleration a_c representing the minimum strength required for a slope not to fail at a fixed probability level in a given time interval. Regional probabilistic hazard maps were generated for the two failure types most common in Irpinia (slump–earthflows and rock falls). The results suggest that quite moderate critical acceleration (0.05–0.08 g) could suffice to keep the slope failure probability low. However, the available data indicate that potential slide surfaces with a_c below these values could be common in Irpinia, where, perhaps in relation to particular geo-environmental conditions, a relative large number of marginally stable slopes might survive other destabilising actions and fail even on occasion of not particularly strong earthquake shaking.     

Probabilistic assessment of structural operational efficiency in emergency limit conditions: the I.OPà.CLE method

One major issue in the aftermath of a strong earthquake is the emergency management, which cannot be guaranteed if the physical components necessary for the operability of the contingency plan are either damaged, unusable or inaccessible. In order to assess the physical efficiency of the emergency system on which a contingency plan is based, the I.OPà.CLE method (Indices for evaluation of the Operational efficiency of Limit Condition Emergency) has been set up by the Italian Civil Protection Department. It is basically aimed at supporting civil protection decision makers in evaluating emergency systems and establishing strategies and priorities concerning strengthening interventions at national, regional or municipality level. The method must be potentially applied to any of the around 8000 municipalities all over Italy, and then it must refer to a minimum information dataset readily available for any municipality. Therefore, I.OPà.CLE has been specifically tailored for the minimum standard information that is provided by the analysis of Limit Condition for Emergency, as formulated in 2012 by the Italian Civil Protection Department. This analysis defines the standard framework of the physical layout of a municipal seismic emergency plan, relying on a limited number of information. Notwithstanding the numerically extensive target and limited amount of information available, the ambition of I.OPà.CLE is to perform simplified analyses without renouncing to rigor in the methodology. The present paper illustrates the analytic formulation of I.OPà.CLE and its capabilities, as well as two real examples. In the conclusion, future upgrading of the model are discussed, even in relation to the availability of further pieces of information.     

A class-oriented mechanical approach for seismic damage assessment of RC buildings subjected to the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake

The simplified mechanical method POST (PushOver on Shear Type models) for seismic vulnerability assessment of RC buildings is used in this study to derive damage scenarios for a database of 7597 RC buildings subjected to the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake. POST allows the evaluation of fragility curves through the determination of the non-linear static response of RC buildings in closed form, assuming the hypothesis of shear type behaviour, and considering the influence of infill panels both in the derivation of structural response and in assessment of building damage, which is defined according to the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98. The aim of the present study is to provide a much more significant and reliable validation of the methodology, thanks to a much wider database compared to previous studies, and based on a different application of the methodology, i.e. at building class-level instead of single building-level. To this aim, the main geometrical-typological characteristics of the analysed buildings (number of storeys, age of construction, building area) have been statistically characterized based on data collected from post-earthquake AeDES survey forms, considering both the variability of each single parameter and the correlation that exists between one parameter and the other. This also allows to analyse the effectiveness of the adopted analytical procedure in predicting the general trends of observed damage with these parameters, showing a good agreement between observed and predicted trends. The overall predicted damage scenarios are compared with the corresponding observed ones, collected from AeDES survey forms, highlighting, again, a good agreement. Finally, the assumed mechanical interpretation of damage classification of EMS-98 is validated through the comparison between the distributions of damage to vertical structures and infill panels and the corresponding observed post-earthquake damage data.