Study of Water Relative Permeability in Fractures Using Well Tests and Radon: Gas Bubbles Effect

Few published data are available for two-phase flow in fractures from field studies. All measurements of relative permeability reported in the literature were done in laboratory-scale. The in situ water saturations are normally not known for multiphase flow in natural fractures; therefore, the direct measurements of relative permeability are difficult in field-scale. With the help of a case study before and after the 2008 M_w 5.4 Antung earthquake, groundwater radon was used as a tracer to determine the gas and water saturations in a small naturally fractured aquifer. Well tests were also conducted to estimate aquifer transmissivity before and after the 2008 Antung earthquake. Anomalous declines in both groundwater radon concentration and transmissivity were observed precursory to the 2008 Antung earthquake. Both declines are two precursory phenomena having a common effect of gas bubbles. Using the data from well tests and radon tracer, one data point of water relative permeability can be obtained for in situ fractures. This data point reveals strong phase interference between water and gas bubbles for multiphase flow in natural fractures. Both the data of well tests and radon tracer are essential to gain an improved understanding of mass transfer behavior of groundwater-dissolved gases between water and gas phases.     

基于EEMD及BP神经网络的区域海平面多尺度预测研究

基于时间序列的统计预测模型是现阶段海平面高度预测的主要手段之一,然而海平面变化机理复杂,传统方法对于非平稳非线性的时间序列预测存在较大局限性,预测精度有待进一步提高.本文基于闸坡站长时间(1959～2011年)月均验潮序列,结合集合经验模态分析(Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition,简称EEMD)与BP(Back Propagation)神经网络方法,提出一种改进的区域海平面变化趋势预测方法——EEMD-BP建模.本研究首先利用EEMD方法对原始序列进行分解,根据验潮序列中隐含的各个信号的不同频谱特征生成多个本征模函数(Intrinsic Mode Function,简称IMF),达到将时间序列平稳化,提高信噪比的效果.然后由各IMF作为BP神经网络的输入因子,分别预测各IMF的未来变化趋势,最后将输出结果重建得到原始序列的预测值.结果显示,EEMD能有效提取序列中隐含的多时间尺度信号,神经网络能较好地预测海平面未来变化趋势,相对于直接使用BP神经网络进行海平面变化时间序列预测(R=0.76,RMSE=36.74mm,ME=-3.46),EEMD-BP建模预测精度有显著提高(R=0.89,RMSE=28.16mm,ME=2.31).说明EEMD-BP建模首先对非平稳非线性时间序列进行平稳化、降噪等处理,再分别对分解后序列进行预测,有利于提高预测精度.该方法为相关区域海平面变化趋势预测研究提供现实参考意义.     

Evaluation of dam overtopping probability induced by flood and wind

This study develops a probability-based methodology to evaluate dam overtopping probability that accounts for the uncertainties arising from wind speed and peak flood. A wind speed frequency model and flood frequency analysis, including various distribution types and uncertainties in their parameters, are presented. Furthermore, dam overtopping probabilities based on monthly maximum (MMax) series models are compared with those of the annual maximum (AMax) series models. An efficient sampling scheme, which is a combination of importance sampling (IS) and Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) methods, is proposed to generate samples of peak flow rate and wind speed especially for rare events. Reservoir routing, which incorporates operation rules, wind setup, and run-up, is used to evaluate dam overtopping probability.     

Simplified analysis of mid‐story seismically isolated buildings

The mid‐story isolation design method is recently gaining popularity for the seismic protective design of buildings located in the areas of high population. In a mid‐story isolated building, the isolation system is incorporated into the mid‐story rather than the base of the building. In this paper, the dynamic characteristics and seismic responses of mid‐story isolated buildings are investigated using a simplified three‐lumped‐mass structural model for which equivalent linear properties are formulated. From the parametric study, it is found that the nominal frequencies of the superstructure and the substructure, respectively, above and below the isolation system have significant influences on the isolation frequency and equivalent damping ratio of a mid‐story isolated building. Moreover, the mass and stiffness of the substructure are of greater significance than the superstructure in affecting the dynamic characteristics of the isolated building. Besides, based on the response spectrum analysis, it is noted that the higher mode responses may contribute significantly to the story shear force of the substructure. Consequently, the equivalent lateral force procedure of design codes should carefully include the effects of higher modes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Correlating recurrent radon precursors with local earthquake magnitude and crust strain near the Chihshang fault of eastern Taiwan

The active Chihshang fault in the southern segment of longitudinal valley of eastern Taiwan is part of the suture boundary between the Eurasia plate and the Philippine Sea plate. Radon anomalies in groundwater were recorded prior to three major earthquakes—(1) 2003 M _w = 6.8 Chengkung, (2) 2006 M _w = 6.1 Taitung, and (3) 2008 M _w = 5.4 Antung. The epicenters were located 24, 52, and 13 km, respectively, from the radon-monitoring well (D1) in the Antung hot spring about 3 km southeast of the Chihshang fault. Prior to the three major earthquakes, radon decreased from background levels of 787 ± 42, 762 ± 57, and 700 ± 57 pCi/L to minima of 326 ± 9, 371 ± 9, and 480 ± 43 pCi/L, respectively. Based on the radon volatilization model and the rock dilatancy model, this paper correlates the observed radon minima with local earthquake magnitude and crust strain. The correlation is a useful means of forecasting local disastrous earthquakes in the southern segment of longitudinal valley of eastern Taiwan.     

Mineralogical and geochemical investigations of sediment-source region changes in the Okinawa Trough during the past 100 ka (IMAGES core MD012404)

We present a mineralogical and geochemical study of core MD012404, retrieved from the central Okinawa Trough (OT) of the East China Sea. Our studies reveal that the sediment sources of the core have been changed through time during the past 100 ka. Our mineralogical proxies indicate that the sediments source from the Yangtze River correlates well sea-level changes before 24 ka. Our Ti/Al ratios otherwise indicate an increase of sediment supply from eastern Taiwan after 26 ka. The cooler climate of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 23～19 ka) led to a reduction in fluvial sediments from the Yangtze River. However, subsequent climate warming (after ～19 ka) resulted in an abrupt increase in fluvial sediments. After the LGM, the Kuroshio intrusion flow into the OT may have increased. We also infer anomalous changes in eolian sources transported by winter monsoons during the LGM and at 80 ka based on an eolian mineralogical indicator (feldspar). We conclude that the sediment source of core MD012404 is primarily of terrestrial origins, but influenced by sea-level changes and variations in the East Asian monsoon.     

Variability of sea surface temperature and warm pool area in the South China Sea and its relationship to the western Pacific warm pool

Sea surface temperature (SST) data derived from satellite and in situ measurements are used to study the thermal variability in the South China Sea (SCS). Time–frequency–energy distributions, periods of variability, and trends are computed by the Hilbert–Huang transform method. The SST trend from 1982 to 2005 is 0.276°C per decade in the SCS which is higher than 0.144°C per decade in the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP). The warm pool (SST ≥ 28°C) area in the SCS has increased by 0.20 × 10⁶ km² per decade. The SST and area of the warm pool in the SCS are strongly correlated, respectively, with the SST and area of the WPWP with a time lag of 1 month, suggestive of a strong connection between these two warm pools. Once the annual cycle is eliminated, decadal oscillations dominate the variability of SST and warm pool area in the SCS.     

广东沿海地区风暴潮易损性评估

从系统学角度出发,对广东省沿海地区(阳江-汕尾岸段)风暴潮灾害易损性因子进行综合分析,提出从社会经济、土地利用、生态环境、滨海构造物和承灾能力5个方面对风暴潮承灾体进行易损性评估,建立广东省沿海地区风暴潮易损性评价指标体系.依托国际通用的海岸易损性评估模式并对其进行改进,建立与广东省沿海地区相适应的风暴潮易损性评价模型...     

Rapid geometry analysis for earthquake-induced and rainfall-induced landslide dams in Taiwan

Stability analysis of the dam is important for disaster prevention and reduction. The dam＇s geometry plays an important role in understanding its stability. This study develops a rapid landslide dam geometry assessment method for both earthquake-induced and rainfall-induced landslide dams based on nine real cases collected in Chinese Taipei and 214 cases collected worldwide. For simplification purposes, a landslide dam is classified into triangular or trapezoidal. The rapid landslide dam geometry assessment method in this paper uses only satellite maps and the topographic maps to get landslide area, and then analyze the dam geometry. These maps are used to evaluate the area of the landslide and the slope of the river bed. Based on the evaluation information, the proposed method can calculate dam height, the length of the dam, and the angles of the dam in both upstream and downstream directions. These geometry parameters of a landslide dam provide important information for further dam stability analysis. The proposed methodology is applied to a real landslide dam case at Hsiaolin Village. The result shows that the proposed method can be used to assess the landslide dam geometry.     

Assessment of climate change impacts on flooding vulnerability for lowland management in southwestern Taiwan

Taiwan suffers from losses of economic property and human lives caused by flooding almost every year. Flooding is an inevitable, reoccurring, and the most damaging disaster in Taiwan since Taiwan is located in the most active tropic cyclone formation region of the Western Pacific. Flooding problem is further worse in land subsidence areas along southwestern coast of Taiwan due to groundwater overdraft. Increasing number of people is threatened with floods owing to climate change since it would induce sea level rise and intensify extreme rainfall. Assessments of flooding vulnerability depend not only on flooding severity, possible damage of assets exposed to floods should also be simultaneously considered. This paper aims at exploring how climate change might impact the flooding vulnerability of lowland areas in Taiwan. A flooding vulnerability evaluation scheme is proposed in this study which incorporates flooding severity (the maximum inundation depth determined by a two-dimensional model) and potential economic losses for various land uses. Effects of climate change on flooding vulnerability focus on alterations of rainfall depth for various recurrence intervals. The flood-prone Yunlin coastal area, located in southwestern Taiwan, is chosen to illustrate the proposed methodology. The results reveal that reducing flooding vulnerability can be achieved by either reducing flooding severity (implementation of flood-mitigation measures) or decreasing assets exposed to floods (suspension of land uses for flood-detention purpose). Performance of currently implemented flood-mitigation measures is insufficient to reduce flooding vulnerability when facing with climate change. However, the scenario suggested in this study to sustain room for floods efficiently reduces flooding vulnerability in both without- and with climate change situations. The suggestions provided in this study could support decision processes and help easing flooding problems of lowland management in Taiwan under climate change.