Holocene migration of oceanic front systems over the Conrad Rise in the Indian Sector of the Southern Ocean

There has been limited previous research about Holocene climate variability in the Indian Sector of the Southern Ocean. Here we examine centennial‐scale changes in diatom assemblages and stable isotopic ratios since 10 000 cal a BP in a high‐accumulation‐rate sediment core from the Conrad Rise. Although abundances of dominant diatom taxa (Fragilariopsis kerguelensis and Thalassiothrix antarctica) are comparatively constant, relative abundances of secondary taxa fluctuate. Before c. 9900 cal a BP, winter sea‐ice and cold water covered the Conrad Rise. Following deglaciation the sea‐ice retreated from the Conrad Rise, lagging that of the Atlantic and eastern Indian Sectors by about 1500 a. The Polar Front moved southward during the early Holocene optimum and north Antarctic Zone waters covered the Conrad Rise for about 650 a. After 9300 cal a BP, solar insolation strongly influenced sea surface temperature and primary productivity in the Southern Ocean. In the high‐latitude Indian Sector, productivity increased 1500 a after the onset of late Holocene neoglaciation. Periodic δ¹⁸O and cold‐water diatom taxa spikes (at intervals of 200 and 300–500 a, respectively) occurred after 9300 cal a BP, probably associated with solar activity. Fluctuations in short‐term sea surface temperature and cold‐water taxa are synchronous with changes in δD observed in an east Antarctic ice core. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of future runoff trends under multiple climate change scenarios in the Willamette River Basin,Oregon, USA

We investigated trends in future seasonal runoff components in the Willamette River Basin (WRB) of Oregon for the twenty‐first century. Statistically downscaled climate projections by Climate Impacts Group (CIG), eight different global climate model (GCM) simulations with two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios, (A1B and B1), were used as inputs for the US Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modelling System. Ensemble mean results show negative trends in spring (March, April and May) and summer (June, July and August) runoff and positive trends in fall (September, October and November) and winter (December, January and February) runoff for 2000–2099. This is a result of temperature controls on the snowpack and declining summer and increasing winter precipitation. With temperature increases throughout the basin, snow water equivalent (SWE) is projected to decline consistently for all seasons. The decreases in the centre of timing and 7‐day low flows and increases in the top 5% flow are caused by the earlier snowmelt in spring, decreases in summer runoff and increases in fall and winter runoff, respectively. Winter runoff changes are more pronounced in higher elevations than in low elevations in winter. Seasonal runoff trends are associated with the complex interactions of climatic and topographic variables. While SWE is the most important explanatory variable for spring and winter runoff trends, precipitation has the strongest influence on fall runoff. Spatial error regression models that incorporate spatial dependence better explain the variations of runoff trends than ordinary least‐squares (OLS) multiple regression models. Our results show that long‐term trends of water balance components in the WRB could be highly affected by anthropogenic climate change, but the direction and magnitude of such changes are highly dependent on the interactions between climate change and land surface hydrology. This suggests a need for spatially explicit adaptive water resource management within the WRB under climate change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction of depth‐integrated fluxes of suspended sediment in the Amazon River: particle aggregation as a complicating factor

Large rivers have been previously shown to be vertically heterogeneous in terms of suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentration, as a result of sorting of suspended solids. Therefore, the spatial distribution of suspended sediments within the river section has to be known to assess the riverine sedimentary flux. Numerous studies have focused on the vertical distribution of SPM in a river channel from a theoretical or experimental perspective, but only a few were conducted so far on very large rivers. Moreover, a technique for the prediction of depth‐integrated suspended sediment fluxes in very large rivers based on sediment transport dynamics has not yet been proposed. We sampled river water along depth following several vertical profiles, at four locations on the Amazon River and its main tributaries and at two distinct water stages. Depending on the vertical profile, a one‐ to fivefold increase in SPM concentration is observed from river channel surface to bottom, which has a significant impact on the ‘depth‐averaged’ SPM concentration. For each cross section, a so‐called Rouse profile quantitatively accounts for the trend of SPM concentration increase with depth, and a representative Rouse number can be measured for each cross section. However, the prediction of this Rouse number would require the knowledge of the settling velocity of particles, which is dependent on the state of aggregation affecting particles within the river. We demonstrate that in the Amazon River, particle aggregation significantly influences the Rouse number and renders its determination impossible from grain‐size distribution data obtained in the lab. However, in each cross section, the Rouse profile obtained from the fit of the data can serve as a basis to model, at first order, the SPM concentration at any position in the river cross section. This approach, combined with acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) water velocity transects, allows us to accurately estimate the depth‐integrated instantaneous sediment flux. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A generalized additive model for the spatial distribution of snowpack in the Spanish Pyrenees

A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to model the spatial distribution of snow depth in the central Spanish Pyrenees. Statistically significant non‐linear relationships were found between distinct location and topographical variables and the average depth of the April snowpack at 76 snow poles from 1985 to 2000. The joint effect of the predictor variables explained more than 73% of the variance of the dependent variable. The performance of the model was assessed by applying a number of quantitative approaches to the residuals from a cross‐validation test. The relatively low estimated errors and the possibility of understanding the processes that control snow accumulation, through the response curves of each independent variable, indicate that GAMs may be a useful tool for interpolating local snow depth or other climate parameters. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of growing watershed imperviousness on hydrograph parameters and peak discharge

An increasing impervious area is quickly extending over the Wu‐Tu watershed due to the endless demands of the people. Generally, impervious paving is a major result of urbanization and more recently has had the potential to produce more enormous flood disasters than those of the past. In this study, 40 available rainfall–runoff events were chosen to calibrate the applicable parameters of the models and to determine the relationships between the impervious surfaces and the calibrated parameters. Model inputs came from the outcomes of the block kriging method and the non‐linear programming method. In the optimal process, the shuffled complex evolution method and three criteria were applied to compare the observed and simulated hydrographs. The tendencies of the variations of the parameters with their corresponding imperviousness were established through regression analysis. Ten cases were used to examine the established equations of the parameters and impervious covers. Finally, the design flood routines of various return periods were furnished through use of approaches containing a design storm, block kriging, the SCS model, and a rainfall‐runoff model with established functional relationships. These simulated flood hydrographs were used to compare and understand the past, present, and future hydrological conditions of the watershed studied. In the research results, the time to peak of flood hydrographs for various storms was diminished approximately from 11 h to 6 h in different decrements, whereas peak flow increased respectively from 127 m³ s^?1 to 629 m³ s^?1 for different storm intensities. In addition, this study provides a design diagram for the peak flow ratio to help engineers and designers to construct hydraulic structures efficiently and prevent possible damage to human life and property. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An efficient and adaptive approach for modeling gravity effects in spherical coordinates

The need to obtain more reliable Earth structures has been the impetus for conducting joint inversions of disparate geophysical datasets. For seismic arrival time tomography, joint inversion of arrival time and gravity data has become an important way to investigate velocity structure of the crust and upper mantle. However, the absence of an efficient approach for modeling gravity effects in spherical coordinates limits the joint tomographic analysis to only local scales. In order to extend the joint tomographic inversion into spherical coordinates, and enable it to be feasible for regional studies, we develop an efficient and adaptive approach for modeling gravity effects in spherical coordinates based on the longitudinal/latitudinal grid spacing. The complete gravity effects of spherical prisms, including gravitational potential, gravity vector and tensor gradients, are calculated by numerical integration of the Gauss–Legendre quadrature (GLQ). To ensure the efficiency of the gravity modeling, spherical prisms are recursively subdivided into smaller units according to their distances to the observation point. This approach is compatible with the parameterization of regional arrival time tomography for large areas, in which both the near- and far-field effects of the Earth's curvature cannot be ignored. Therefore, this approach can be implemented into the joint tomographic inversion of arrival time and gravity data conveniently. As practical applications, the complete gravity effects of a single anomalous density body have been calculated, and the gravity anomalies of two tomographic models in the Taiwan region have also been obtained using empirical relationships between P-wave velocity and density.     

Stage‐discharge uncertainty derived with a non‐stationary rating curve in the Choluteca River,Honduras

Uncertainty in discharge data must be critically assessed before data can be used in, e.g. water resources estimation or hydrological modelling. In the alluvial Choluteca River in Honduras, the river‐bed characteristics change over time as fill, scour and other processes occur in the channel, leading to a non‐stationary stage‐discharge relationship and difficulties in deriving consistent rating curves. Few studies have investigated the uncertainties related to non‐stationarity in the stage‐discharge relationship. We calculated discharge and the associated uncertainty with a weighted fuzzy regression of rating curves applied within a moving time window, based on estimated uncertainties in the observed rating data. An 18‐year‐long dataset with unusually frequent ratings (1268 in total) was the basis of this study. A large temporal variability in the stage‐discharge relationship was found especially for low flows. The time‐variable rating curve resulted in discharge estimate differences of ? 60 to + 90% for low flows and ± 20% for medium to high flows when compared to a constant rating curve. The final estimated uncertainty in discharge was substantial and the uncertainty limits varied between ? 43 to + 73% of the best discharge estimate. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Energy balance and evaporation loss of an irrigation reservoir equipped with a suspended cover in a semiarid climate (south‐eastern Spain)

The main objective of this study was to assess the impact of a suspended cover on the evaporation loss of an agricultural water reservoir (AWR). To this aim, a detailed data collection was carried out in a typical AWR located in south‐eastern Spain during 2 consecutive years. During the first year, the reservoir remained uncovered, while during the second year it was covered with a double black polyethylene (PE) shade cloth. On an annual scale, it was observed that the cover can provide a reduction of evaporation loss of 85%. Two approaches, energy balance and mass transfer, were used to analyse the effect of the cover on the evaporation process. Important modifications were observed on the magnitude, sign, annual trend and relative weight of the components of the energy balance. The changes were ascribed to the strong reduction of net radiation and to the substantial weight of the heat storage and sensible heat flux in the energy balance. A relevant finding was the contrast between the patterns of the annual evaporation curve for open‐water and covered conditions. The mass transfer approach allowed discriminating between the wind‐ and radiation‐shelter effects on the evaporation term. The reduction in water‐to‐air vapour deficit was the main factor explaining the high efficiency of the cover, whereas the reduction of the mass transfer coefficient was a modulating factor that accounted for the wind‐shelter effect. Overall, both approaches provided a sound basis to describe and explain the physical mechanisms underlying the high performance of the tested cover. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrated marine pollution management: A new model of marine pollution prevention and control in Kaohsiung,Taiwan

In a small island country like Taiwan, where the coastal zones have been heavily utilized, it is critical for the government to protect the health of near shore aquatic environment by enforcing the Marine Pollution Control Act (MPCA). However, the implementation of an effective plan based on MPCA is challenging local area. This is particular the case in the local level when the cross linkage among all related agencies is generally lacking. In 2004, the Kaohsiung city was aware of the shortfalls and then implemented an integrated marine pollution management system. The new system was adopted an action plan, that integrates all agencies with a strong communication mechanism. The encouraging results have shown substantial resource savings and a great improvement in water quality in the Kaohsiung marine environment. The success of this case reflects the needs for the concept of the integrated coastal zone management when dealing with marine affairs.