Forecast of Tsunamis from the Japan–Kuril–Kamchatka Source Region

This paper describes an investigation of the subfault distribution along the Japan–Kuril–Kamchatka subduction zone for the implementation of a far-field tsunami forecast algorithm. Analyses of seismic data from 1900 to 2000 define the subduction zone, which in turn is divided into 222 subfaults based on the fault characteristics. For unit slip of the subfaults, a linear long-wave model generates a database of mareograms at water-level stations along the subduction zone and at warning points in the North Pacific. When a tsunami occurs, an inverse algorithm determines the slip distribution from near-source water-level records and predicts the waveforms at the warning points using the pre-computed mareograms. A jackknife resampling scheme uses combinations of input water-level records to provide a series of waveform predictions for the computation of the confidence-interval bounds. The inverse algorithm is applied to hindcast two major tsunamis generated from the Japan–Kuril–Kamchatka source and the computed tsunami heights show good agreement with recorded water-level data.     

Improving debris flow monitoring in Taiwan by using high-resolution rainfall products from QPESUMS

Debris flow is commonly initiated by torrential rain and its triggering is correlated to the hydrological, geological, and geomorphic conditions on site. In spite of the important effects of geology and topography, rainfall characteristic is the main external triggering factor to debris flow and is a predominant parameter for real-time monitoring. Due to the scarcity of sufficient spatial ground-based rainfall data in hill areas, quantitative precipitation estimation using remote-sensing techniques such as radar and satellite is needed for debris flow pre-warning. The QPESUMS (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Segregation Using Multiple Sensors) system was acquired to retrieve spatial rainfall data during the rainfall period from June 30 to July 6 in 2004 when Typhoon Mindulle and southwesterly flow struck Taiwan. The retrieved data were used for setting up the debris flow monitoring algorithm. With the aid of multiple platforms of meteorological observations, a rainfall threshold isohyet in a pilot area was mapped for debris flow monitoring. The rainfall monitoring algorithm based on QPESUMS provides more detailed information than the limited number of ground-based rainfall stations for interpreting the spatial distributions of rainfall events, and therefore is more suitable for debris-flow monitoring.     

Drawing metro maps in concentric circles: A designer-in-the-loop approach with visual examples

This article presents a proof-of-concept designer-in-the-loop schematic map drawing tool, based on the marriage of two approaches—manual and automated, which provides the technical interactivity of drawing tools between the user and the computer. We focus on concentric circle maps as opposed to the commonly used orthogonal mode representation, which is suggested by previous studies that it could promote better network learning. In comparison with existing methods, the proposed method is more compatible with the framework of effective map design from psychological and aesthetic perspectives, and a range of options can be provided in conjunction with users' preferences. We evaluated our approach on a set of iterations with case studies of Hong Kong metro with a group of three co-authors from the fields of geography, transport engineering, and education.     

Sensitivity analysis of climatic parameters for sky classification

Climatic variables are frequently used as weighting factors to indicate the degree of clearness for interpreting sky patterns. However, such important parameters are not always widely available and their criteria to define a sky condition are not clear-cut. In addition, certain variables may be more effective than the others in terms of sky identification. This paper studies the capability of various daylight parameters, namely zenith luminance, global, direct-beam and sky-diffuse illuminance, and solar altitude for categorizing the 15 International Commission on Illumination (CIE) standard skies. A new form of artificial neural networks called probabilistic neural network (PNN) which is a powerful technique for pattern recognition was used for the analysis. The findings suggested that the PNN is an appropriate tool when a number of climatic parameters of various criteria for differentiating sky standards are employed, and the ratio of zenith luminance to diffuse illuminance (L _z/D _v) and solar altitude (?? _s) are respectively the most and the least significant input parameters for discriminating between the 15 CIE skies.     

Immune responses to combined effect of hypoxia and high temperature in the green-lipped mussel Perna viridis

Flow cytometry was used to examine immune responses in haemocytes of the green-lipped mussel Perna viridis under six combinations of oxygen level (1.5 mg O2 l(-1), 6.0 mg O2 l(-1)) and temperature (20 °C, 25 °C and 30 °C) at 24 h, 48 h, 96 h and 168 h. The mussels were then transferred to normoxic condition (6.0 mg O2 l(-1)) at 20 °C for further 24 h to study their recovery from the combined hypoxic and temperature stress. Esterase (Est), reactive oxygen species (ROS), lysosome content (Lyso) and phagocytosis (Pha) were reduced at high temperatures, whereas hypoxia resulted in higher haemocyte mortality (HM) and reduced phagocytosis. For HM and Pha, changes were observed after being exposed to the stresses for 96 h, whereas only a 24 h period was required for ROS and Lyso, and a 48 h one for Est. Recovery from the stresses was observed for HM and Pha but not other immune responses.     

Modeling of 500-year tsunamis for probabilistic design of coastal infrastructure in the Pacific Northwest

This paper describes the development of tsunami scenarios from the National Seismic Hazard Maps for design of coastal infrastructure in the Pacific Northwest. The logic tree of Cascadia earthquakes provides four 500-year rupture configurations at moment magnitude 8.8, 9.0, and 9.2 for development of probabilistic design criteria. A planar fault model describes the rupture configurations and determines the earth surface deformation for tsunami modeling. A case study of four bridge sites at Siletz Bay, Oregon illustrates the challenges in modeling of tsunamis on the Pacific Northwest coast. A nonlinear shallow-water model with a shock-capturing scheme describes tsunami propagation across the northeastern Pacific as well as barrier beach overtopping, bore formation, and detailed flow conditions at Siletz Bay. The results show strong correlation with geological evidence from the six paleotsunamis during the last 2800 years. The proposed approach allows determination of tsunami loads that are consistent with the seismic loads currently in use for design of buildings and structures.     

Comparison of high-energy galactic and atmospheric tau neutrino flux

We compare the tau neutrino flux arising from the galaxy and the earth atmosphere for 10³E/GeV10¹¹. The intrinsic and oscillated tau neutrino fluxes from both sources are calculated. The intrinsic galactic ν_τ flux (E10³ GeV) is calculated by considering the interactions of high-energy cosmic-rays with the matter present in our galaxy, whereas the oscillated galactic ν_τ flux is coming from the oscillation of the galactic ν_μ flux. For the intrinsic atmospheric ν_τ flux, we extend the validity of a previous calculation from E10⁶ GeV up to E10¹¹ GeV. The oscillated atmospheric ν_τ flux is, on the other hand, rather suppressed. We find that, for 10³E/GeV5×10⁷, the oscillated ν_τ flux along the galactic plane dominates over the maximal intrinsic atmospheric ν_τ flux, i.e., the flux along the horizontal direction. We also briefly mention the presently envisaged prospects for observing these high-energy tau neutrinos.     

Fisheries: Hope or despair?

Recent work suggesting that fisheries depletions have turned the corner is misplaced because analysis was based largely on fisheries from better-managed developed-world fisheries. Some indicators of status show improvements in the minority of fisheries subjected to formal assessment. Other indicators, such as trophic level and catch time series, have been controversial. Nevertheless, several deeper analyses of the status of the majority of world fisheries confirm the previous dismal picture: serious depletions are the norm world-wide, management quality is poor, catch per effort is still declining. The performance of stock assessment itself may stand challenged by random environmental shifts and by the need to accommodate ecosystem-level effects. The global picture for further fisheries species extinctions, the degradation of ecosystem food webs and seafood security is indeed alarming. Moreover, marine ecosystems and their embedded fisheries are challenged in parallel by climate change, acidification, metabolic disruptors and other pollutants. Attempts to remedy the situation need to be urgent, focused, innovative and global.     

Estimating time parameters of overland flow on impervious surfaces by the particle tracking method

Abstract

Travel time and time of concentration T_c are important time parameters in hydrological designs. Although T_c is the time for the runoff to travel to the outlet from the most remote part of the catchment, most researchers have used an indirect method such as hydrograph analysis to estimate T_c. A quasi two-dimensional diffusion wave model with particle tracking for overland flow was developed to determine the travel time, and validated for runoff discharges, velocities, and depths. Travel times for 85%, 95% and 100% of particles arrival at the outlet of impervious surfaces (i.e. T_t85, T_t95, and T_t100) were determined for 530 model runs. The correlations between these travel times and T_c estimated from hydrograph analysis showed a significant agreement between T_c and T_t85. All the travel times showed nonlinear relationships with the input variables (plot length, slope, roughness coefficient, and effective rainfall intensity) but showed linear relationships with each other.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi