基于IPCC AR4部分耦合模式结果的21世纪长江中下游强降水预估

利用IPCC AR4气候模式诊断和相互比较项目(PCMDI)20世纪模拟试验资料, 通过模式气候态与观测(再分析)气候态的对比, 从存有完整逐日降水资料的14个模式中挑选出7个对东亚模拟较好的模式(即gfdl cm2.0、 gfdl cm2.1、 cgcm、miroc(m)、 cnrm、 echam、 cgcmt47)。然后, 利用这7个模式在A1B、 A2、 B1三种不同温室气体排放情景下21世纪预估试验结果, 分析长江中下游强降水的未来演变。结果表明: 不同模式模拟结果有较好的一致性。相对20世纪后20年(1980—1999年)的平均而言, 21世纪不仅年平均强降水日数、 单次强降水强度呈现上升趋势, 且其年际变率也增强; 就不同排放情景比较而言, A1B、 A2情景下强降水频次与强度的增强趋势均比B1情景下要大; 就多模式平均来看, 在A1B、 A2、 B1排放情景下, 强降水频次分别增加约30%、 20%、 l5％, 强降水强度分别增加约20%、20%、 10%, 强降水频次的年际标准差在三种情景下均增加约20%, 强降水强度年际标准差分别增加约20%、20%、 10%。这些结果意味着, 未来不仅强降水增加, 且极端暴雨、 大暴雨易于出现, 旱涝也将更为频繁。     

煤层气储层测井评价有关问题的讨论

煤层气的形成和储层的特性决定了煤层气储层评价的一系列关键参数,这些参数可用常规测井方法直接或间接获得。目前常规测井方法包括自然电位、双侧向（或感应）、微电极、补偿密度、自然伽马、声波时差、声波全波列、中子孔隙率以及井径测井等。选用不同测井方法采用线性回归或体积模型等方法,可以获得煤层气储层评价参数。     

Defining the range of ecological shelter zones in the shore zone of Three Gorges Reservoir,China

To maintaining a health ecological environment in Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) area, ecological shelter zones (ESZ) need to be built in the TGR shore zone urgently. Based on the implication and function of ESZ, this study first analyzed the relationships amongst three subsystems of the TGR area, including the upstream production-living land, the downstream reservoir water body, and the ESZ. Then a simple and practical hydrological environment model for controlling the eutrophication of the TGR water body was constructed to determine ESZ range of TGR. Additionally, based on the pollutant degradation efficiency of ESZ and the assimilative capacity of reservoir water body, a raster reverse tracking method was proposed to determine the range of ESZ. Thirdly, take Yangdu town in Zhongxian county as a typical region, the ESZ range under three scenarios of different rainfall intensity, degradation efficiency and inflow water quality that corresponding to the three decisive factors of defining ESZ range were discussed. Finally, the statistical laws of the ESZ’s width at each boundary points were discussed to facilitate the ESZ construction projects, and selected standardized rate at 70, 90, and 99 % were labelled as “General”, “Good” and “Excellent” level to represent the performance of the width of the ESZ range. In conclusion, it suggest “Good” level width as basic width of ESZ, and additionally a special protection zone should be put on upstream environment for the extreme large width at the boundary points.     

Oil source analysis of Upper Tertiary Shawan Formation in Chepaizi area,in the northwest margin of Junggar basin

Well che89, located in the Chepaizi area in the northwest margin of Junggar basin, acquires high production industrial oil flow, which is an important breakthrough in the exploration of the south foreland slope area of Junggar basin. The Chepaizi area is near two hydrocarbon generation depressions of Sikeshu and Shawan, which have sets of hydrocarbon source rock of Carboniferous to Jurassic as well as Upper Tertiary. Geological and geochemical parameters are proper for the accumulation of mixed source crude oil. Carbon isotope, group composition and biomarkers of crude oil in Upper Tertiary of well Che89 show that the features of crude oil in Upper Tertiary Shawan Formation are between that of Permian and Jurassic, some of them are similar to these two, and some are of difference, they should be the mixed source of Permian and Jurassic. Geochemical analysis and geological study show that sand extract of Lower Tertiary Wulunguhe Formation has the same source as the crude oil and sand extract of Upper Tertiary Shawan Formation, but they are not charged in the same period. Oil/gas of Wulunguhe Formation is charged before Upper Tertiary sedimentation, and suffered serious biodegradation and oxidation and rinsing, which provide a proof in another aspect that the crude oil of Upper Tertiary Shawan Formation of well Che89 is not from hydrocarbon source rock of Lower Tertiary.

     

灵台-阿木去乎剖面地壳速度结构

在Ⅰ测线观测资料的基础上,本文结合测区特点给出了高程校正及沉积层校正方法,利用反射波与莫霍面折射波运动学特性进行一维、二维地壳结构的正、反演计算,获得了自甘肃夏河至灵台460公里范围内的分层地壳结构,认为西部地壳厚度约51公里,东部仅为44公里,已属鄂尔多斯地台区结构,与地槽区的分界线大致对应地表陇县固关镇。武山与张家川之间在15-20公里深处存在低速层。结合地震波的动力学特性,可判定本测线通过的超壳断层有鄂尔多斯西缘-六盘山断裂、西秦岭北缘断裂和武山南北向断裂。     

Development and verification of the comprehensive model for physical properties of hydrate sediment

Natural gas hydrate is widely distributed all over the world and may be a potential resource in the near future, whereas hydrate dissociation during the development affects wellbore stability and drilling safety. However, the present modeling of hydrate reservoir parameters ignored the influence of effective stress and only considered the hydrate saturation. In this paper, a series of stress sensitivity experiments for the unconsolidated sandstone were carried out, and the influence of mean effective stress on physical parameters was obtained; a comprehensive model for the physical parameters of hydrate reservoir was developed subsequently. With the help of ABAQUS finite element software, the established comprehensive model was verified by the use of the wellbore stability numerical model of hydrate reservoir. The verification results show that ignoring the effect of mean effective stress on the parameters of hydrate formation aggravates the invasion of drilling fluid into the hydrate formation. Besides, ignoring the stress sensitivity of reservoir physical parameters will underestimate the wellbore instability during hydrate drilling, which will be a threat to the safety of gas hydrate drilling. At the end of the drilling operation, the maximum plastic strain of the model for considering and not considering stress sensitivity was 0.0145 and 0.0138, respectively. Therefore, the established comprehensive model will provide a theoretical support for accurately predicting the engineering geological disasters in hydrate development process.     

基于ＷＡＰ指数的长江流域及其以南地区干旱气候特征分析

根据长江流域及其以南地区１９４站１９５８—２００７年共５０ａ的逐日降水资料,利用ＷＡＰ指数对该区域干旱的主要特征进行综合分析．对各季节ＷＡＰ指数的多年平均分布特征、ＷＡＰ指数的长期变化趋势、区域平均的ＷＡＰ指数变化特征等空间分布特征进行分析,并对基于ＷＡＰ指数的干旱开始时间空间分布特征和干旱持续时间的变化特征进行分析．结果表明：通过ＷＡＰ指数表征的降水量具有明显的地域性差异和季节性差异;该区域夏冬季节降水量有增大趋势,不易发生持续干旱情况,而春秋季节降水量的长期趋势明显减少;该区域春秋 两个季节干旱开始和持续的时间存在显著季节性差异及南北和东西地域性的显著差异．     

Position-domain integrity risk-based ambiguity validation for the integer bootstrap estimator

Integrity monitoring for ambiguity resolution is of significance for utilizing the high-precision carrier phase differential positioning for safety–critical navigational applications. The integer bootstrap estimator can provide an analytical probability density function, which enables the precise evaluation of the integrity risk for ambiguity validation. In order to monitor the effect of unknown ambiguity bias on the integer bootstrap estimator, the position-domain integrity risk of the integer bootstrapped baseline is evaluated under the complete failure modes by using the worst-case protection principle. Furthermore, a partial ambiguity resolution method is developed in order to satisfy the predefined integrity risk requirement. Static and kinematic experiments are carried out to test the proposed method by comparing with the traditional ratio test method and the protection level-based method. The static experimental result has shown that the proposed method can achieve a significant global availability improvement by 51% at most. The kinematic result reveals that the proposed method obtains the best balance between the positioning accuracy and the continuity performance.     

冬、春季芦苇(Phragmites australis)和狭叶香蒲(Typha angustifolia)的腐解过程及其对水质的影响

水生植物修复已经成为水体富营养化修复的重要手段,但其周期性的衰亡也给水体带来不容忽视的负效应.以府河流域丘陵地带农业区小水系自然生长的芦苇(Phragmites australis)和狭叶香蒲(Typha angustifolia)为研究对象,通过模拟实验,研究其冬季和春季腐烂分解过程的差异以及对水体营养盐水平的影响.结果表明,2种挺水植物的剩余干物质量整体上都呈现先快速下降再缓慢下降的趋势,芦苇和狭叶香蒲春季的分解速率分别为0.0251和0.0169 d~(-1),分别明显高于冬季分解速率(0.0027和0.0052 d~(-1));且腐烂分解速率与植物初始氮磷含量和氮磷比都有一定相关性.2种植物在冬季和春季磷的矿化速率都明显高于氮的矿化速率.实验水体的总氮和总磷浓度在腐解过程呈现初期迅速上升、中期迅速下降、后期缓慢下降的趋势.总体来看,芦苇和狭叶香蒲的腐烂分解受季节和初始氮磷浓度的影响较大,芦苇反应较香蒲更敏感且对水质的影响具有时效性.