Input data resolution‐induced uncertainty in watershed modelling

The temporal‐spatial resolution of input data‐induced uncertainty in a watershed‐based water quality model, Hydrologic Simulation Program‐FORTRAN (HSPF), is investigated in this study. The temporal resolution‐induced uncertainty is described using the coefficient of variation (CV). The CV is found to decrease with decreasing temporal resolution and follow a log‐normal relation with time interval for temperature data while it exhibits a power‐law relation for rainfall data. The temporal‐scale uncertainties in the temperature and rainfall data follow a general extreme value distribution and a Weibull distribution, respectively. The Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient (NSC) is employed to represent the spatial resolution induced uncertainty. The spatial resolution uncertainty in the dissolved oxygen and nitrate‐nitrogen concentrations simulated using HSPF is observed to follow a general extreme value distribution and a log‐normal distribution, respectively. The probability density functions (PDF) provide new insights into the effect of temporal‐scale and spatial resolution of input data on uncertainties involved in watershed modelling and total maximum daily load calculations. This study exhibits non‐symmetric distributions of uncertainty in water quality modelling, which simplify weather and water quality monitoring and reducing the cost involved in flow and water quality monitoring. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The influence of water retention curve hysteresis on the stability of unsaturated soil slopes

Hysteresis is a common feature exhibited in hydraulic properties of an unsaturated soil. The movement of wetting front and the hysteresis effect are important factors which impact the shear strength of the unsaturated soil and the mechanics of shallow landslides. These failures are mainly triggered by the deepening of the wetting front accompanied by a decrease in matric suction induced by infiltration. This research establishes a method for determining a stability analysis of unsaturated infinite soil slopes, integrating the influence of infiltration and the water retention curve hysteresis. Furthermore, the present stability analysis method including the infiltration model and the advanced Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion calculates the variations of the safety factor (FS) in accordance with different slope angle, depth and hydrological processes. The experimentally measured data on the effect of hysteresis are also carried out for comparison. Numerical analyses, employing both wetting and drying hydraulic behaviour of unsaturated soil, are performed to study the difference in soil‐water content as observed in the experiments. The simulating approximations also fully responded to the experimental data of sand box. The results suggest that the hysteresis behaviour affect the distribution of soil‐water content within the slope indeed. The hysteresis made the FS values a remarkable recovery during the period of non‐rainfall in a rainfall event. The appropriate hydraulic properties of soil (i.e. wetting or drying) should be used in accordance with the processes that unsaturated soil actually experience. This method will enable us to acquire more accurate matric suction head and the unsaturated soil‐shear strength as it changes with the hysteretic flow, in order to calculate into the stability analysis of shallow landslides. An advanced understanding of the process mechanism afforded by this method is critical to realizing a reliable and appropriate design for slope stabilization. It also offers some immediate reference information to the disaster reduction department of the government. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Efficient methods of discharge measurements in rivers and streams based on the probability concept

Regularities exist in fluid flows and can be represented by a set of constants. These constants are functions of the parameter of a probability distribution that exhibits resilience and stability under various flow conditions. Together, these regularities form a network and interact with each other, such that if one is known then the others can be determined from it. The regularities and their network explain the various fluid‐flow phenomena and can be used in analysis of rivers and streams. For example, they can be used as the basis to develop simple and efficient methods of discharge measurements as presented herein, which only require velocity sampling at a single point on a water surface or a few points on a single vertical. Because of their simplicity and the short time requirement, these methods can be easily automated for collecting discharge data in unsteady, high flows that are badly needed for real‐time flow forecasting and design of flood control structures, and for advancing the fundamental, scientific knowledge in hydrology. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Infrared stimulated luminescence dating of an Eemian (MIS 5e) site in Denmark using K‐feldspar

Buylaert, J.‐P., Huot, S., Murray, A.S. & Van den haute, P.: Infrared stimulated luminescence dating of an Eemian (MIS 5e) site in Denmark using K‐feldspar. Boreas, 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00156.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. Infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) dating of K‐feldspars may be an alternative to quartz optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating when the quartz OSL signal is too close to saturation or when the quartz luminescence characteristics are unsuitable. In this paper, Eemian (MIS 5e) coastal marine sands exposed in a cliff section on the coast of southern Jutland (Denmark) are used to test the accuracy and precision of IRSL dating using K‐feldspars. This material has been used previously to test quartz OSL dating ( Murray & Funder 2003 ): a small systematic underestimation of <10% compared to the expected age of ～130 ka was reported. In our study, a single‐aliquot regenerative‐dose (SAR) IRSL protocol is used to determine values of equivalent dose (D_e) and the corresponding fading rates (g values). A significant age underestimation (of up to ～35%) is observed; this is attributed to anomalous fading. Using a single site‐average fading rate of 3.66 ± 0.09%/decade to correct the IRSL ages for all samples provides good agreement between the average fading‐corrected K‐feldspar age (119 ± 6 ka) and the independent age control (132–125 ka). This is despite the reservations of Huntley & Lamothe (2001) that their fading correction method is not expected to work on samples older than ～20–50 ka. This fading‐corrected feldspar result is not significantly different from the overall revised quartz age (114 ± 7 ka) also presented here. We conclude that fading‐corrected IRSL ages measured using K‐feldspar may be both precise and accurate over a greater age range than might be otherwise expected.     

Comparison of genetic algorithms and shuffled complex evolution approach for calibrating distributed rainfall–runoff model

Three methods, Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE), Simple Genetic Algorithm (SGA) and Micro‐Genetic Algorithm (µGA), are applied in parameter calibration of a grid‐based distributed rainfall–runoff model (GBDM) and compared by their performances. Ten and four historical storm events in the Yan‐Shui Creek catchment, Taiwan, provide the database for model calibration and verification, respectively. The study reveals that the SCE, SGA and µGA have close calibration results, and none of them are superior with respect to all the performance measures, i.e. the errors of time to peak, peak discharge and the total runoff volume, etc. The performances of the GBDM for the verification events are slightly worse than those in the calibration events, but still quite satisfactory. Among the three methods, the SCE seems to be more robust than the other two approaches because of the smallest influence of different initial random number seeds on calibrated model parameters, and has the best performance of verification with a relatively small number of calibration events. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evolution of scouring process downstream of grade‐control structures under steady and unsteady flows

For many incised channels, one of the most common strategies is to install some hard structures, such as grade‐control structures (GCSs), in the riverbed to resist further incision. In this study, a series of experiments, including both steady and unsteady flow conditions, were conducted to investigate the scouring process downstream of a GCS. Three distinct phases, including the initial, developing and equilibrium phases, during the evolution of scour holes were identified. In addition, a semi‐empirical method was proposed to predict the equilibrium scour‐hole profile for the scour countermeasure design. In general, the comparisons between the experimental and simulated results are reasonably consistent. As the studies on temporal variation of the scour depth at GCSs caused by floods are limited, the effect of flood hydrograph shapes on the scour downstream of GCSs without upstream sediment supply was also investigated experimentally in this study. Based on the dimensional analysis and the concept of superposition, a methodology is proposed to simulate the time evolution of the maximum scour depth downstream of a GCS for steady flows. Moreover, the proposed scheme predicts reasonably well the temporal variations of the maximum scour depth for unsteady flows with both single and multiple peak. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Vegetation in western Central Mexico during the last 50 000 years: modern analogs and climate in the Zacapu Basin

The late glacial and the transition towards the Holocene marked a period of significant environmental change at a global scale. In western Central Mexico, few records span beyond the Holocene, and little is known about Pleistocene climatic and environmental variability. Here we report on the pollen record of a composite sequence made of three cores that cover the last 50 ka (thousands of calibrated radiocarbon years before present) in the Zacapu Basin, western Central Mexico (～1970 m asl). The conjunction of modern pollen rain from the area with the composite fossil pollen sequence from cores Cantabria, Cantabria 1 and CEMCA Point‐1 provided a detailed history of the vegetation of the area. Recognition of modern environmental patterns through individual modern pollen taxa proved difficult, but multivariate analysis separated different vegetation types. No‐modern‐analog communities relative to the modern vegetation cover of the area were evident, especially during periods of drought. Apparently, summer precipitation was significant before 40 ka and after the deglaciation. However, this moisture source declined from ～40 to 10 ka because tradewinds from the Gulf of Mexico were blocked by the eastern mountains of Central Mexico as a result of lower temperatures. By contrast, westerly and northerly winds were enhanced by maximum ice cover from ～19 to 17 ka, providing abundant winter precipitation and therefore preventing extreme drought in the area. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A numerical investigation of a moderate coastal storm with intense precipitation

Abstract

In this study, the development of a moderate coastal storm with intense precipitation that occurred during 12–14 February 1993 is examined using a high‐resolution version of the Canadian Regional Finite‐element (RFE) model with more realistic physical representations. It is shown that the improved RFE model predicts well the coastal cyclogenesis events and also the distribution and intensity of heavy mixed precipitation (rain and snow) associated with the storm. It is found that the cyclogenesis takes place in response to the low‐level inshore advection of high‐θ_e air from the maritime boundary layer, and the approach of a mid‐level shortwave trough with a warm pool above that is previously associated with a decaying cyclone upstream. More rapid deepening of the cyclone ensues as intense precipitation falls along the warm and cold fronts near the cyclone centre.

Diagnosis of the control and sensitivity simulations reveals that the low‐level inshore warm advection and the propagation of the stratospheric warm pool contribute more significantly to the surface pressure falls during the incipient stage, whereas the mid‐level shortwave trough plays an important role in the cyclogenesis at later stages. Overall, latent heat release accounts for about 50% of the cyclone's total deepening, in agreement with the presence of a moderate baroclinic environment and the generation of intense precipitation.

The diabatic and kinematic structures near the rain‐snow boundary are examined to gain insight into the influence of melting snow on the cyclogenesis. It is shown that the improved RFE model reproduces well the rain‐snow boundary structures as previously observed. Moreover, a thermally indirect circulation (perturbation) can be seen in the vicinity of the rain‐snow boundary. It is found, however, that melting of snow tends to produce a weak negative or negligible impact on the cyclogenesis, as opposed to previous hypotheses.     

Oil source analysis of Upper Tertiary Shawan Formation in Chepaizi area,in the northwest margin of Junggar basin

Well che89, located in the Chepaizi area in the northwest margin of Junggar basin, acquires high production industrial oil flow, which is an important breakthrough in the exploration of the south foreland slope area of Junggar basin. The Chepaizi area is near two hydrocarbon generation depressions of Sikeshu and Shawan, which have sets of hydrocarbon source rock of Carboniferous to Jurassic as well as Upper Tertiary. Geological and geochemical parameters are proper for the accumulation of mixed source crude oil. Carbon isotope, group composition and biomarkers of crude oil in Upper Tertiary of well Che89 show that the features of crude oil in Upper Tertiary Shawan Formation are between that of Permian and Jurassic, some of them are similar to these two, and some are of difference, they should be the mixed source of Permian and Jurassic. Geochemical analysis and geological study show that sand extract of Lower Tertiary Wulunguhe Formation has the same source as the crude oil and sand extract of Upper Tertiary Shawan Formation, but they are not charged in the same period. Oil/gas of Wulunguhe Formation is charged before Upper Tertiary sedimentation, and suffered serious biodegradation and oxidation and rinsing, which provide a proof in another aspect that the crude oil of Upper Tertiary Shawan Formation of well Che89 is not from hydrocarbon source rock of Lower Tertiary.

     

Variability of volume strain in bounded heterogeneous media

The deformation of the solid matrix affects the fluid pore pressure and flow by altering the pore volume. Such interaction in turn affects the storage of groundwater in the void space. Obviously, this subject is of interest in groundwater hydrology. This paper describes an investigation of the effect of aquifer heterogeneity on the variability of the fluid pressure head and solid's volume strain, where the assumption of a constant vertical total stress leads to a relatively simple relationship between changes in solid's volume strain and fluid pressure head. To solve the problem analytically, focus is placed on the one‐dimensional models. It is found from our closed‐form solutions that the variance and correlation length of the log hydraulic conductivity are important in increasing the variability of pressure head and solid's volume strain. It is hoped that our findings will provide a basic framework for understanding and quantifying field‐scale volume strain processes and be useful in stimulating further research in this area. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.