Incorporating uncertainty of future sea-level rise estimates into vulnerability assessment: A case study in Kahului, Maui

Accurate sea-level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are essential in developing effective management strategies for coastal systems at risk. In this study, we evaluate the effect of combining vertical uncertainties in Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) elevation data, datum transformation and future SLR estimates on estimating potential land area and land cover loss, and whether including uncertainty in future SLR estimates has implications for adaptation decisions in Kahului, Maui. Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate probability distributions through our inundation model, and the output probability surfaces are generalized as areas of high and low probability of inundation. Our results show that considering uncertainty in just LiDAR and transformation overestimates vulnerable land area by about 3 % for the high probability threshold, resulting in conservative adaptation decisions, and underestimates vulnerable land area by about 14 % for the low probability threshold, resulting in less reliable adaptation decisions for Kahului. Not considering uncertainty in future SLR estimates in addition to LiDAR and transformation has variable effect on SLR adaptation decisions depending on the land cover category and how the high and low probability thresholds are defined. Monte Carlo simulation is a valuable approach to SLR vulnerability assessments because errors are not required to follow a Gaussian distribution.     

东亚大气环流的低频振荡及与韵律的关系

本文根据北半球500hPa高度场30年(1951—1980)平均的逐候格点资料,对气候平均的东亚各主要大气环流系统的年内变化进行了谐波分析和天气学分析.结果表明,东亚大气环流系统存在着三种主要的大气低频波:年波、半年波和30—50天的季内波;中、高纬度的大气环流以年波振荡为主,低纬度的大气环流以半年波振荡为主;30—50天的季内波是北半球各纬度上都存在的一种波,但它对总方差的贡献在低纬比中、高纬度大.此外,还讨论了年波和半年波这两种大气低频波与我国长期预报中常用的各种韵律指标特别是隔季相关现象的关系.     

5 地震过程的物理学

地震过程的物理学是一个内容十分广泛的专题,包括震源物理过程、断层面解、震源时间函数、地震定量、地震统计性质、模型试验、数学模拟、地震与核爆的区分等.该专题共有24篇论文,涉及的国家有印度、中国、日本、俄罗斯、伊朗、乌兹别克和埃及.     

南极普里兹湾及其邻近海域水团研究

普里兹湾及其邻近海域是中国南大洋调查研究的传统优势海域与重点区域。围绕夏季表层水、冬季水、陆架水、绕极深层水、南极底层水、普里兹湾底层水、冰架水等研究海区主要水团的特征和分布,总结了前人在南极普里兹湾及其邻近海域基于调查资料开展的水团研究中所取得的成果。研究表明,前人在对陆架水的示性指标界定上,将陆架水是否区分为高盐陆架水和低盐陆架水存在较大争议,在高盐陆架水和普里兹湾底层水的定义上存在重叠;目前尚没有证据表明绕极深层水向南可以伸展到普里兹湾的陆架区域,也没有发现在普里兹湾附近海域生成南极底层水的直接证据。     

Spheroidal weathering of granite porphyry with well‐developed columnar joints by oxidation,iron precipitation,and rindlet exfoliation

Spheroidal weathering, one of the important rock weathering styles, has been attributed to chemical weathering by the water from joint surfaces, and mechanical aspects of the weathering have not been well addressed. We made an investigation on spheroidal weathering of Miocene granite porphyry with well‐developed columnar joints and found that this spheroidal weathering proceeds through chemical processes and accompanying mechanical processes. The investigation of the textures, physical properties, mineralogy, and chemistry of the porphyry revealed the presence of a brown band on the surface margins of corestones, representing the oxidation of pyrite and chlorite, and the precipitation of iron hydroxides, and the consequent generation of micro‐cracks within the band. During weathering, oxidation progresses inwards from joints that surround the rindlets, including both high‐angle columnar and low‐angle planar joints, and causes rounding of the unweathered interior portion of the rock. Microscopic observations of the brown band embedded with fluorescent resin show that pores are first filled with iron hydroxides, and that micro‐cracks then form parallel to the oxidation front in the outer portion of the brown band. Iron hydroxide precipitation increases the P‐wave velocity in the brown band, while micro‐crack formation decreases the tensile strength of the rock. Where the brown band has thickened to ~6 cm, the micro‐cracks are connected to one another to create continuous cracks, which separate the rindlets from the corestone. Micro‐crack formation parallel to the corestone surface may be attributed to compressive stresses generated by small amounts of volumetric expansion due to the precipitation of iron hydroxides in the brown band. Earth surface is under oxidizing environments so that precipitation of iron hydroxides commonly occurs; the spheroidal weathering in this paper is a typical example of the combination of chemical and mechanical processes under such environments. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于北斗卫星的预警信息发布技术研究及实现

利用北斗卫星短报文通信功能,以广播方式发布预警信息,可提高预警信息的覆盖范围和时效性, 填补我国海洋及陆地边远地区预警信息发布空白。但北斗卫星预警信息发布存在传输速率低、冗余信息量大、长预警信息发布成功率低的问题。该文对北斗卫星预警信息发布系统的系统结构、协议体系和关键问题开展研究,通过指挥机并联、预警信息编码、影响区域识别、联合补包等方法,解决了北斗卫星预警信息发布系统建设的关键问题。在此基础上,该文设计了预警信息网络发布协议、预警信息北斗发布协议和预警信息北斗传输协议,并开发了原型系统。     

基于ACCRBF网络的多层砖房震害预测

针对传统震害预测方法逐栋抽样计算建筑物抗震性能的不足,本文提出了一种基于蚁群聚类径向基(ACCRBF)网络模型的建筑物震害预测方法。依据不同地震动峰值加速度下多层砖房的实际震害资料,对模型进行训练,在模型的输入和输出之间建立映射关系,并利用这种映射关系对未知样本进行分类,实现对多层砖房的震害分析和预测。模型的输入为反映结构的震害影响因子,输出为给定的地震动峰值加速度下结构震害等级。研究表明,基于ACCRBF网络模型的多层砖房震害预测结果与震害实例基本吻合,具有推广应用价值。     

Hydrocarbon Generating Potential of Mineral—Bituminous Matrix in Source Rocks

Mineral-bituminous matrix(MBM) makes up a major part of source rocks,but its potential in hydrocarbon generation is uncertain,Mineral and organic (Maceral and kerogen) compositions,organic maturity and fluorescence of MBM are studied based on source rock samples from eastern Jiuquan(Jiudong)Basin.The results show that MBM is dominated by inorganic minerals and among the small percentage of organic components those of secondary origins are predominant over the primary species.This strongly indicates that the significance of MBM in hydrocarbon generation is limited.     

实现数据库管理震源参数的探索

就如何利用数据库，结合Java、XML等手段对震源参数管理进行了一些探索，并给出了一些在一个实际系统中实现了的例子。     

禾青井动水位对断层蠕动与慢地震过程的响应初析

以湖南禾青井深井水位观测的异常图象为例进行定性分析，发现动水位观测有可能直接反映出断层的滑动或断层的慢地震过程，前者可能为地下水物理参量的观测与研究提供亲折思路，后者则可能对震源物理学的发展和地震预报水平的提高具有特殊的意义。