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101.
102.
Joong-Bae Ahn Sera Jo Myoung-Seok Suh Dong-Hyun Cha Dong-Kyou Lee Song-You Hong Seung-Ki Min Seong-Chan Park Hyun-Suk Kang Kyo-Moon Shim 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(2):223-236
The change of extreme precipitation is assessed with the HadGEM2-AO - 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) chain, which is a national downscaling project undertaken cooperatively by several South Korean institutes aimed at producing regional climate change projection with fine resolution (12.5 km) around the Korean Peninsula. The downscaling domain, resolution and lateral boundary conditions are held the same among the 5 RCMs to minimize the uncertainties from model configuration. Climatological changes reveal a statistically significant increase in the mid-21st century (2046- 2070; Fut1) and the late-21st century (2076-2100; Fut2) precipitation properties related to extreme precipitation, such as precipitation intensity and average of upper 5 percentile daily precipitation, with respect to the reference period (1981-2005). Changes depending on the intensity categories also present a clear trend of decreasing light rain and increasing heavy rain. In accordance with these results, the change of 1-in-50 year maximum precipitation intensity over South Korea is estimated by the GEV method. The result suggests that the 50-year return value (RV50) will change from -32.69% to 72.7% and from -31.6% to 96.32% in Fut1 and from -31.97% to 86.25% and from -19.45% to 134.88% in Fut2 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, at the 90% confidence level. This study suggests that multi-RCMs can be used to reduce uncertainties and assess the future change of extreme precipitation more reliably. Moreover, future projection of the regional climate change contains uncertainties evoked from not only driving GCM but also RCM. Therefore, multi-GCM and multi-RCM studies are expected to provide more robust projection. 相似文献
103.
104.
Qiang Zhang Mingzhong Xiao Vijay P. Singh Xiaohong Chen 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,111(1-2):119-131
Daily precipitation data for the period of 1960–2005 from 42 precipitation gauging stations in the Pearl River basin were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall trend test and copula functions. The standardized precipitation index method was used to define drought episodes. Primary and secondary return periods were also analyzed to evaluate drought risks in the Pearl River basin as a whole. Results indicated that: (1) in general, the drought tendency was not significant at a 95 % confidence level. However, significant drought trends could be found in November, December, and January and significant wetting trends in June and July. The drought severity and drought durations were not significant at most of the precipitation stations across the Pearl River basin; (2) in terms of drought risk, higher drought risk could be observed in the lower Pearl River basin and lower drought risk in the upper Pearl River basin. Higher risk of droughts of longer durations was always corresponding to the higher risk of droughts with higher drought severity, which poses an increasing challenge for drought management and water resources management. When drought episodes with higher drought severity occurred in the Pearl River basin, the regions covered by higher risk of drought events were larger, which may challenge the water supply in the lower Pearl River basin. As for secondary return periods, results of this study indicated that secondary return periods might provide a more robust evaluation of drought risk. This study should be of merit for water resources management in the Pearl River basin, particularly the lower Pearl River basin, and can also act as a case study for determining regional response to drought changes as a result of global climate changes. 相似文献
105.
Incorporating uncertainty of future sea-level rise estimates into vulnerability assessment: A case study in Kahului, Maui 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Accurate sea-level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are essential in developing effective management strategies for coastal systems at risk. In this study, we evaluate the effect of combining vertical uncertainties in Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) elevation data, datum transformation and future SLR estimates on estimating potential land area and land cover loss, and whether including uncertainty in future SLR estimates has implications for adaptation decisions in Kahului, Maui. Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate probability distributions through our inundation model, and the output probability surfaces are generalized as areas of high and low probability of inundation. Our results show that considering uncertainty in just LiDAR and transformation overestimates vulnerable land area by about 3 % for the high probability threshold, resulting in conservative adaptation decisions, and underestimates vulnerable land area by about 14 % for the low probability threshold, resulting in less reliable adaptation decisions for Kahului. Not considering uncertainty in future SLR estimates in addition to LiDAR and transformation has variable effect on SLR adaptation decisions depending on the land cover category and how the high and low probability thresholds are defined. Monte Carlo simulation is a valuable approach to SLR vulnerability assessments because errors are not required to follow a Gaussian distribution. 相似文献
106.
107.
揭示一个基于代数拓扑理论的裂隙网络中物质弥散模型,还给出了应用于网络中的对流扩散的对应性原理的证明。应用拓扑理论给出的框架,使其起了一个数据结构的组织者的作用,由此得到网络中每一个分支上的浓度的解。这个解是在拉普拉斯空间上的解析解。网络中任意点在任何时刻的浓度可以很方便地用数值拉氏反变换求出。 相似文献
108.
我国早期生命进化研究的进展和展望 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
概述了中国在晚前寒武纪——寒武纪生物化石群研究多方面(尤其是大化石)的主要成就。其中,近年发现的震旦纪陡山沱期化石生物(包括庙河生物群和蓝田植物群),对植物界的进化说来是个重要阶段;早寒武世澄江生物群(包括软躯体生物和软部保存的带骨骼生物)早于国外著名的布吉斯页岩生物群,逼近了带骨骼动物最初的爆发式辐射期。这些珍稀化石的研究将促进对早期生物进化历程的重新认识。这个研究领域有无可限量的前景。 相似文献
109.
岩体结构统计均质区的划分 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
本文介绍由Miller提出的基本概率统计理论的关联表分析,结合施密特投影图研究岩体统计均质区的划分方法。对该法进行了适当的修改,编写了相应的计算机程序。并对三峡永久船闸地区的岩体结构,进行了岩体结构统计均质区的划分,获得了良好的效果。 相似文献
110.
基于三角形网格的气象场等值线自动分析 总被引:2,自引:3,他引:2
针对矩形网格法的不足,提出了用三角形网格法实现气象场等值线自动分析方法。通过对站点资料的边界插值、三角形剖分等处理后,再在剖分出来的三角形网格中按照一定方式连接等值线即可实现等值线的自动分析。给出了等值线自动生成算法,并将实例的分析结果同Grads绘制图进行对比分析。结果表明,该方法不仅有效可行,而且分析的结果更为精确合理。 相似文献