地球物理勘探中几种二维插值方法的误差分析

为了研究采样和网格化方法对地球物理数据成图精度的影响,为野外数据采集布设提供一定的依据,采用数值模拟确定重力异常场场值,通过不同采样间距和不同插值方法计算重力异常绝对误差均方根值和节点处的绝对误差值,对比不同插值方法的误差,得到了如下认识：1）对于同一插值方法而言,存在小间距绝对误差均方根值小于大间距绝对误差均方根值的关系。2）对不同的插值方法而言:当采样间距小于最小异常地质体尺度时,绝对误差均方根值由小到大的顺序是径向基函数法、改进的谢别德法、克里金插值法、自然邻点法、反距离加权插值法、最近邻点法、最小曲率法,并且线性插值三角网法与自然邻点法具有几乎相同的数值;当采样间距大于最小异常地质体尺度时,绝对误差均方根值由小到大的顺序是径向基函数法、改进的谢别德法、克里金插值法、自然邻点法、最小曲率法、最近邻点法、反距离加权插值法,并且线性插值三角网法和自然邻点法具有几乎相同的数值。3）从绝对误差均方值看,径向基函数方法、改进的谢别德方法和克里金方法数值较小,其中径向基函数值绝对误差均方根值最小。4）从节点处绝对误差值来看,径向基函数方法、克里金方法、改进的谢别德方法相对其他插值方法具有更小的误差,不存在局部误差较小或较大的情况,是相对较好的插值方法,并且径向基函数方法是最好的。     

重庆地区夏季一次降水过程及增雨潜力的数值模拟分析

利用国家气象中心GRAPES人工增雨云系模式,选取2008年7月4日重庆地区一次降水过程进行数值模拟,分析了重庆地区降雨天气的水汽分布、云系宏微观分布、云中微物理转化和增雨潜力等特征。结果表明：本次降水大气过程中,重庆地区水汽含量极为丰富,水汽分布与地形分布呈明显的对应关系,低层水汽输送较大,整层水汽通量较高,有明显水汽辐合,云中液态水对地面降水影响很大。西南气流和地形共同作用为重庆地区液态水的形成提供了有利条件,在东北部山区迎风坡处大量水汽累积抬升,易形成丰富的液态水。重庆东北部地区水汽向云水转化较强,过冷液态水含量丰富,冰晶含量少,0℃层附近水汽垂直通量较大,降水效率较低,有较大的增雨潜力。     

Erratum to: Numerical simulation of changes in tropical cyclone intensity using a coupled air-sea model

正Erratum to:Acta Meteor Sinica DOI 10.1007/sl3351-013-0506-z The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake.The presentation of DOI number was incorrect.The corrected DOI number is 10.1007/sl3351-013-0503-2     

Preliminary study on assessment of nutrient transport in the Taihu Basin based on SWAT modeling

With the Taihu Basin as a study area, using the spatially distributed and mechanism-based SWAT model, preliminary simulations of nutrient transport in the Taihu Basin during the period of 1995:_2002 has been carried out. The topography, soil, meteorology and land use with industrial point pollution discharge, the loss of agricultural fertilizers, urban sewerage, and livestock drainages were all considered in the boundary conditions of the simulations. The model was calibrated and validated against water quality monitoring data from 2001 to 2002. The results show that the annual total productions of nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) into Lake Taihu are 40000t and 2000t respectively. Nutrient from the Huxi Region is a major resource for Lake Taihu. The non-point source (surface source) pollution is the main form of catchment sources of nutrients into Lake Taihu, occupied TN 53% and TP 56% respectively. TN and TP nutrients from industrial point pollution discharge are 30% and 16%, and sewerage in both forms of point source and non-point source are TN 31% and TP 47%. Both the loss of agricultural fertilizers and livestock drainages from the catchment should be paid more attention as an important nutrient source. The results also show that SWAT is an effective model for the simulation of temporally and spatially nutrient changes and for the assessment of the trends in a catchment scale.     

基于不完全β分布的二项分布参数的Bayesian估计

将β分布推广到不完全β分布,给出了二项分布的可靠度的先验分布为不完全β分布时的一些结论,并讨论了在基于二项分布可靠性增长模型中的应用.     

Spatiotemporal variation and driving forces of reference evapotranspiration in Jing River Basin,northwest China

Evapotranspiration is an important component of the hydrological cycle, which integrates atmospheric demands and surface conditions. Research on spatial and temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) enables understanding of climate change and its effects on hydrological processes and water resources. In this study, ET_o was estimated by the FAO‐56 Penman–Monteith method in the Jing River Basin in China, based on daily data from 37 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2005. ET_o trends were detected by the Mann–Kendall test in annual, seasonal, and monthly timescales. Sensitivity coefficients were used to examine the contribution of important meteorological variables to ET_o. The influence of agricultural activities, especially irrigation on ET_o was also analyzed. We found that ET_o showed a decreasing trend in most of the basin in all seasons, except for autumn, which showed an increasing trend. Mean maximum temperature was generally the most sensitive parameter for ET_o, followed by relative humidity, solar radiation, mean minimum temperature, and wind speed. Wind speed was the most dominant factor for the declining trend in ET_o. The more significant decrease in ET_o for agricultural and irrigation stations was mainly because of the more significant decrease in wind speed and sunshine hours, a mitigation in climate warming, and more significant increase in relative humidity compared with natural stations and non‐irrigation stations. Changes in ET_o and the sensitivity coefficient of meteorological variables in relation to ET_o were also affected by topography. Better understanding of ET_o response to climate change will enable efficient use of agricultural production and water resources, which could improve the ecological environment in Jing River Basin. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the propagation of an in-plane shear fault with super-S-wave velocity

The speedv, especially the problem whether super S-wave velocity in the classical model (linear elasticity fracture mechanics) exists, of spontaneous propagation of a shear fault is investigated theoretically. An in-plane shear crack propagating in the crack plane is taken as the model of the shear fault. The results obtained firstly by Kostrov (1975) is extended from sub-Rayleigh wave velocity to super S-wave velocity, and the analytical expression for the stress intensity factorK ₂ in the case ofα>v>β is derived. It is proved that for Poisson mediumK ₂ is positive and real in the velocity range (β, 1.70β). This demonstrates that (β, 1.70β) is the velocity range which fulfils the conditions for spontaneous crack propagation. The existence, convergence and positiveness or negativeness ofK ₂ forv in individual sections are examined, and it is found that for an in-plane shear crack: 1. There are three sections forv, i.e., [0.v _R], (β, 1.70β), andα, respectively, and 2. There are two physically reasonable sections forv, the first is [v _R, β], and the second is [1.70β, α]. These two forbidden sections behave as barriers to fault propagation. The analytical expressions derived in this paper are not only suitable to classical model, but also to the other derivative models (e. g., the slip-weakening model and the renomalization model etc.). The model considered in this paper is more realistic than the static model employed by previous authors. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica, 15, 9–14, 1993.     

An Improved Approach for Parameterizing Surface-Layer Turbulent Transfer Coefficients in Numerical Models

Based on classic iterative computation results, new equations to calculate the surface turbulent transfer coefficients are proposed, which allow for large ratios of the momentum and heat roughness lengths. Compared to the Launiainen scheme, our proposed scheme generates results closer to classical iterative computations. Under unstable stratification, the relative error in the Launiainen scheme increases linearly with increasing instability, even exceeding 15%, while the relative error of the present scheme is always less than 8.5%. Under stable stratification, the Launiainen scheme uses two equations, one for 0 < Ri _B ≤ 0.08 and another for 0.08 < Ri _B ≤ 0.2, and does not consider the condition that Ri _B > 0.2, while its relative errors in the region 0 < Ri _B ≤ 0.2 exceed 31 and 24% for momentum and heat transfer coefficients, respectively. In contrast, the present scheme uses only one equation for 0 < Ri _B ≤ 0.2 and another equation for Ri _B > 0.2, and the relative error of the present scheme is always less than 14%.     

新矿物长城矿—铱的硫铋化物

长城矿产在铬铁矿体及临近矿体的铂砂矿中。呈块状聚集体或细脉状,分布在硫铱矿的边缘并交代它。不透明,金属光泽,钢灰色,条痕黑色。莫氏硬度H_M=3.7,显微硬度VHN_(20)=165kg/mm~2。均质性,无解理。计算密度D_(calc.)=11.96g/cm~3。7个电子探针分析的平均化学成分(％):S 7.2,Cu 0.3,Te 0.4,Ir 41.2,Pt 2.8,Bi 47.2,总量99.1。简化的化学式为IrBiS。5条最强X射线粉晶衍射线(hkl,d,I)为:210,2.75(70);211,2.51(60);311,1.860(100);440,1.090(50);600,1.027(50)。X射线粉晶衍射图谱与马营矿相似。进行对比后,长城矿可以指标化为等轴晶系、空间群P2_13。由X射线粉晶衍射线求得α=0.6164(4)nm,V=0.2342nm~3,Z=4。     

乌兰布和沙漠东南缘湖泊群消涨与驱动因素

湖泊是对环境变化响应敏感的地理单元,湖泊消长与响应机制研究对维持区域生态系统稳定具有重要意义。基于1999—2018年Landsat、气象、水文和农业种植面积等多种数据,在ArcGIS平台中利用改进归一化差异水体指数(MNDWI)及目视修正方法提取了乌兰布和沙漠东南缘湖泊群空间信息,运用统计学方法对主要驱动因子与湖泊消涨的关系进行了分析。结果表明:1999—2018年乌兰布和沙漠东南缘大湖泊(面积大于100 hm²)在面积上占优势,小湖泊(面积小于100 hm²)在数量占优势。趋势分析表明大湖泊面积和数量呈显著性减少趋势(相关系数分别为R=0.624 > R_18,0.01=0.561和R=0.648 > R_18,0.01=0.561);小湖泊减少趋势不显著。在空间分布格局上,研究区中部是大湖泊稳定分布区,大湖泊数量11~23个,面积2 208~4 581 hm²。研究区湖泊消长主要受到年实际引黄水量、农田面积和地下水埋深的影响。其中,实际引黄(河)水量影响所有湖泊(P≤0.01),而农田面积和地下水埋深分别对大湖泊(P≤0.01)和小湖泊(P≤0.05)影响显著。用这3个因子分别构建的多元回归模型显示,在大、小湖泊面积和数量预测方面,精度分别达到75.7%和60.5%以上。