Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

上海市居民乡村旅游行为特征及感知研究

运用旅游心理学原理,采用比较分析和交互分析等研究方法,分析了上海市居民乡村旅游的人口学特征、行为偏好以及效果感知,并提出加强乡村旅游宣传力度、观念创新和服务管理等建议.     

Hydrocarbon Potential of Pre-cenozoic Strata in the North Yellow Sea Basin

The North Yellow Sea Basin ( NYSB ), which was developed on the basement of North China (Huabei) continental block, is a typical continental Mesozoic Cenozoic sedimentary basin in the sea area. Its Mesozoic basin is a residual basin, below which there is probably a larger Paleozoic sedimentary basin. The North Yellow Sea Basin comprises four sags and three uplifts. Of them, the eastern sag is a Mesozoic Cenozoic sedimentary sag in NYSB and has the biggest sediment thickness; the current Korean drilling wells are concentrated in the eastern sag. This sag is comparatively rich in oil and gas resources and thus has a relatively good petroleum prospect in the sea. The central sag has also accommodated thick Mesozoic-Cenozoic sediments. The latest research results show that there are three series of hydrocarbon source rocks in the North Yellow Sea Basin, namely, black shales of the Paleogene, Jurassic and Cretaceous. The principal hydrocarbon source rocks in NYSB are the Mesozoic black shale. According to the drilling data of Korea, the black shales of the Paleogene, Jurassic and Cretaceous have all come up to the standards of good and mature source rocks. The NYSB owns an intact system of oil generation, reservoir and capping rocks that can help hydrocarbon to form in the basin and thus it has the great potential of oil and gas. The vertical distribution of the hydrocarbon resources is mainly considered to be in the Cretaceous and then in the Jurassic.     

爆管法在北美地区的应用现状

随着市政部门不断寻求节约成本的创新技术来解决地下基础设施问题,非开挖管线更换技术诸如爆管法成为可行的选择。爆管法是一种用相等或更大口径的新管更换现有地下供水给水、污水排水和燃气输送管线的施工方法。它是唯一一种完全沿旧管线线路铺设的施工方法。这使得安装新管线施工时无须征求额外通行权。爆管法兴起于20纪80年代,现在已遍布北美地区。本文通过对来自2007—2010年加拿大和美国的886个项目的调查问卷结果的总结,讨论了目前非开挖更管技术的趋势,分析了爆管法施工中的因素：包括设备的使用、采购与支付的形式、管线扩径的限制和施工的风险。     

陕西小秦岭金矿深部找矿潜力分析

小秦岭金矿位于华北地台南缘小秦岭隆起北部的太华台拱区,矿床成因类型为石英脉—构造蚀变岩型;区内太古界太华群地层既是赋矿地层也是矿源层,矿体严格受脆韧性构造带控制,燕山期岩浆岩为金的活化、运移提供了热动力。     

Spectroscopic Study of Natural Diamonds in China

It has become clear in recent years that the important substitutional impurities in diamond are nitrogen,hydrogen and boron(Bibby,D.M.,1982).The physical and chemical properties of diamond are determined by the content and form of occurence of nitrogen based on which diamonds are generally classified.The well-known experiments concerning the mutual transformation of the forms the origin of diamond.by Evans.T.Et al.(1982) have provided a theoretic basis for the origin of diamond.Since 1979,spectroscopic investigation of natural diamonds from different areas in china has been carried out using UV-visible and IR spectrophotometer,EPR and cathodoluminescence techniques.We have conducted the classification of natural cathodoluminescence techniques.We have conducted the classification of natural diamonds in China and studies on the forms of nitrogen and hydrogen,the radiation damage and their geological implications.Spectroscopic characteristics of natural diamonds in china and their geological implications are discussed in this paper.     

全球粮食安全格局的时空演化

Food security is the primary prerequisite for achieving other Millennium Development Goals(MDGs).Given that the MDG of“halving the proportion of hungers by 2015”was not realized as scheduled,it will be more pressing and challenging to reach the goal of zero hunger by 2030.So there is high urgency to find the pattern and mechanism of global food security from the perspective of spatio-temporal evolution.In this paper,based on the analysis of database by using a multi-index evaluation method and radar map area model,the global food security level for 172 countries from 2000 to 2014 were assessed;and then spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted to depict the spatial patterns and changing characteristics of global food security;then,multi-nonlinear regression methods were employed to identify the factors affecting the food security patterns.The results show:1)The global food security pattern can be summarized as“high-high aggregation,low-low aggregation”.The most secure countries are mainly distributed in Western Europe,North America,Oceania and parts of East Asia.The least secure countries are mainly distributed in sub-Saharan Africa,South Asia and West Asia,and parts of Southeast Asia.2)Europe and sub-Saharan Africa are hot and cold spots of the global food security pattern respectively,while in non-aggregation areas,Haiti,North Korea,Tajikistan and Afghanistan have long-historical food insecurity problems.3)The pattern of global food security is generally stable,but the internal fluctuations in the extremely insecure groups were significant.The countries with the highest food insecurity are also the countries with the most fluctuated levels of food security.4)The annual average temperature,per capita GDP,proportion of people accessible to clean water,political stability and non-violence levels are the main factors influencing the global food security pattern.Research shows that the status of global food security has improved since the year 2000,yet there are still many challenges such as unstable global food security and acute regional food security issues.It will be difficult to understand these differences from a single factor,especially the annual average temperature and annual precipitation.The abnormal performance of the above factors indicates that appropriate natural conditions alone do not absolutely guarantee food security,while the levels of agricultural development,the purchasing power of residents,regional accessibility,as well as political and economic stability have more direct influence.     

鄂尔多斯盆地纳岭沟地区含铀目的层岩石矿物学特征及其对成岩作用、物源等方面的指示

纳岭沟铀矿床位于鄂尔多斯盆地东北部伊陕单斜构造区,其成矿主岩为中侏罗统直罗组下段下亚段.通过野外地质调查、岩芯编录,结合岩矿鉴定、X-衍射、电子探针及扫描电镜等方法,详细研究了该区目的层砂岩碎屑组分、结构及矿物蚀变特征,并初步探讨了其物源及源区构造背景、砂岩绿色成因、成岩作用等特征.结果表明纳岭沟地区含铀砂岩类型以长石岩屑砂岩为主,其成分及结构成熟度均较低,成岩作用较弱,表现为弱压实作用、胶结作用、溶蚀作用以及部分重结晶作用.大量在粒表呈薄膜状及粒间充填的绿泥石等粘土矿物是砂岩呈绿色调的主因.物源可能来自于盆地北缘阴山造山带的太古宙—元古宙变质岩系以及显生宙岩浆岩.其蚀变矿物组合及期次为草莓状黄铁矿—自生高岭石—绿泥石薄膜+粒间绿泥石—铀石+细分散/脉状黄铁矿—亮晶方解石—方解石脉,其成岩环境经历了弱酸性—酸性还原—弱酸弱碱/氧化还原过渡阶段—碱性还原阶段,而砂岩型铀矿的形成与氧化还原—酸碱性过渡成岩环境变化密切相关.     

水泥厂球磨机基础切割拆除控制爆破

介绍了基础切割拆除爆破的实践和经验。同时成功地应用了非电毫秒导爆管雷管孔外多级接力扩大雷管起爆段数的方法。     

节理岩体三维偶应力弹性理论

节理的存在使得岩体的力学特性十分复杂。偶应力理论考虑了介质内颗粒尺度的影响，它以具有一定尺度的微元体为研究对象，引进了偶应力及弯曲曲率的概念，从而考虑了弯曲效应对介质变形特性的影响，可以用来解决岩土工程中的地下洞室底鼓、顶板开裂及反倾向层状岩体的弯曲倾倒等弯曲变形及弯曲破坏问题。本文考虑了节理间距的影响，对节理岩体的空间间题提出了弹性偶应力理论并建立了有限元计算模式，最后通过算例说明用偶应力理论解决上述问题的有效性。