东北地区的创新能力演化及其经济带动作用分析

通过建立创新能力指标体系和计算模型,并采用相关分析、回归分析、变异系数等方法,从不同空间层级剖析了东北三省的创新能力发展格局及其对经济发展的带动作用,并根据研究结果提出了相关政策建议。研究发现：① 从创新能力分析,吉林、辽宁的创新能力增长较快而黑龙江相对较慢,省际差异呈扩大态势;地级市之间的创新能力相差悬殊,呈现明显的省会城市及门户城市集聚效应,但市级差异呈缩小态势。② 从创新贡献率分析,辽宁的科技创新转化能力及其对经济发展的带动相对较强,而吉林、黑龙江相对较弱;地级市差异较大,沈阳、大连、长春、大庆的创新贡献率比较突出,而锦州、吉林、盘锦、铁岭上升较快。③ 大部分地级市的创新发展对经济带动模式为“低创新能力-弱经济带动”和“高创新能力-强经济带动”,说明各地级市的创新发展及其对经济带动的两极分化较严重。     

Decrease in snowfall/rainfall ratio in the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2013

On the basis of two gridded datasets of daily precipitation and temperature with a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5°, and meteorological station data released by the National Meteorological Information Center (NMIC) during 1961–2013, the spatial and temporal variations of total amount of precipitation, amount of rainfall, amount of snowfall and snowfall/rainfall ratio (S/R) in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are analyzed using Sen’s slope, the Mann–Kendall mutation test, Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) and the Morlet wavelet. Total amount of precipitation and amount of rainfall generally show statistically significant increasing trends of 0.6 mm·a^–1 and 1.3 mm·a^–1, respectively, while amount of snowfall and S/R have significant decreasing trends of–0.6 mm·a^–1 and–0.5% a^–1, respectively. In most regions, due to significant increasing trends in total amount of precipitation and amount of rainfall, and significant decreasing trends in amount of snowfall, S/R shows a decreasing trend in the TP. Abrupt changes in total amount of precipitation, amount of rainfall, amount of snowfall and S/R are detected for 2005, 2004, 1996 and 1998, respectively. Total amount of precipitation, amount of rainfall, amount of snowfall and S/R are concentrated in cycles of approximately 5 years, 10 years, 16 years and 20 years, respectively. The trend magnitudes for total amount of precipitation and amount of rainfall all show decreasing-to-increasing trends with elevation, while amount of snowfall and S/R show decreasing trends.     

海南省台风气象服务效益评估研究

考虑到台风气象服务效益影响因子的复杂性,利用2000—2015年海南省台风灾害损失数据和防御台风灾害行为效益评估三级指标体系调查问卷的统计数据,着重考虑防台减灾中政府组织领导、部门联防、公众防御能力、气象服务水平及不可避免损失因子,基于逆推算法构建了海南省台风气象服务效益评估模型,从防台减灾总效益中分离出其中的气象服务效益,实现了海南省台风气象服务效益的客观化定量化评估。结果表明:海南省台风灾害气象服务效益占台风直接经济损失的14%～49%,这与台风灾害过程中不可避免损失因子密切相关;2000—2015年海南台风灾害气象服务效益和台风直接经济损失均处于增长的态势,这表明当地社会经济的快速发展一定程度上使台风直接经济损失增长,同时伴随政府决策、部门联防、公众防御及气象服务能力的不断增强,气象服务效益将得到提升;台风气象服务效益与台风直接经济损失具有极高的相关性,一定程度上表明了当台风灾害影响较重时,气象服务显得尤其重要。     

Columbite SN3: A New Potential Reference Material for U-Pb Dating by LA-ICP-MS

Columbite-tantalite LA-ICP-MS U-Pb dating is a fast and useful method to determine the age of rare-metal deposits and fingerprint the provenance of columbite-tantalite ore concentrates. Accurate LA-ICP-MS U-Pb dating requires matrix-matched reference materials. We analysed three columbite-tantalite samples (SN3, HND and RL2) from China using ID-TIMS and LA-ICP-MS to assess their potential as reference materials for in situ U-Pb dating. Coltan 139 and these three columbite-tantalite samples with variable compositions yielded internally consistent LA-ICP-MS U-Pb ages when using each other for calibration and the weighted mean ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages are comparable to respective ID-TIMS ages. Composition-dependent U-Pb fractionation seems to be insignificant under the LA-ICP-MS conditions used. Sample SN3 has a low percentage of heterogeneity for ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages (4%) with low common Pb contributions (f₂₀₆ < 1%) and shows a good potential in calibrating unknown samples as primary reference material for LA-ICP-MS analysis. Samples RL2 and HND have altered sections characterised by high LREE contents, flat LREE patterns and old ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U apparent ages, and are not suited as reference materials. The low ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb intercepts for samples RL2 and HND lack geological meaning but provide strong evidence that the disturbed U-Pb systematics with anomalous apparent ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages is a secondary feature.     

测定震源深度的意义的初步讨论

在地震目录中，震源深度是地震学最基本的参数之一，然而它也是一个最不易测准的参数，ＰＤＥ报告中的震源深度以及ＵＳＧＳ和Ｈａｒｖａｒｄ大学的ＣＭＴ反演的矩心深度和利用宽频带波形的深度震相资料获得的震源深度各不相同，其含义也不同，而宽频带波形模拟得到又是一种破裂“核心”的深度。本文对不同测量手段的震源深度的不同物理意义做了初步的探讨。     

大华北南部地区地下流体异常与南黄海6.1级地震

系统清理了１９９５－１９９６年大华北南部地区地下流体异常，并分析了其与１９９６年１１月９日南海Ｍｓ６．１级地震的关系，认为地下流体异常的主体是场兆，但又不能全部归属于这次地震。文中还指出了该区未来地震向ＮＷ方向迁移的可能性及其对豫交界、鲁豫次界区可能产生的影响，以及需要进一步加强的研究工作。     

延怀盆地上地壳热流体特征及其与地震活动的关系

系统研究了延怀盆地上地壳热流体的温度、水化学、气体化学与同位素化学特征 ,确定热水成因与大气降水渗入有关 ,并计算了热储温度与水循环深度 ,认为热水活动对中小地震活动有一定的控制作用并影响断裂活动强度     

高分辨率地层学的特点、应用范围及研究意义

着重对高分辨率地层学的主要特征进行阐述 ,高分辨率地层学的主要特色 ,就是提高对地质时限的划分 ,也即小于 1Ma地质时限的划分 ,与传统生物地层方法相比 ,其精度可提高数十倍 ,其研究对象主要是旋回层和事件层。高分辨率地层学应用广泛 ,不但能够极大提高划分和对比的精度 ,而且能够满足当代地层学、盆地深入研究的需要。     

中短期强震危险地点的跟踪预测

系统研究强震前活动及各种前兆空间上的演化特性，提出确定危险区，危险地段，危险地点的基本原则，顾及地质背景及前兆的时序特点，提出用累积危险度跟踪预测强震危险地点的方法，并在对唐山地震及大同地震的验证中收到预期的效果，累积危险度的高值葬，是未来强震发生的地点。