Pricing weather index insurance based on artificial controlled experiment: a case study of cold temperature for early rice in Jiangxi,China

The growth of early rice is often threatened by a phenomenon known as Grain Buds Cold, a period of anomalously cold temperatures during the booting and flowering stage. As a high yield loss due to Grain Buds Cold will lead to increasing insurance premiums, quantifying the impact of weather on crop yield is crucial to the design of weather index insurance. In this study, we propose a new approach to the estimation of premium rates of Grain Buds Cold weather index insurance. A 2-year artificial controlled experiment was utilized to develop logarithmic and linear yield loss models. Additionally, incorporating 51 years of meteorological data, an information diffusion model was used to calculate the probability of different durations of Grain Buds Cold, ranging from 3 to 20 days. The results show that the pure premium rates determined by a logarithmic yield loss model exhibit lower risk and greater efficiency than those determined by a linear yield loss model. The premium rates of Grain Buds Cold weather index insurance were found to fluctuate between 7.085 and 10.151% at the county level in Jiangxi Province, while the premium rates based on the linear yield loss model were higher (ranging from 7.787 to 11.672%). Compared with common statistical methods, the artificial controlled experiment presented below provides a more robust, reliable and accurate way of analyzing the relationship between yield and a single meteorological factor. At the same time, the minimal data requirements of this experimental approach indicate that this method could be very important in regions lacking historical yield and climate data. Estimating weather index insurance accurately will help farmers address extreme cold weather risk under changing climatic conditions.     

华北北部地区3次强震前地下流体异常场及其形成与演化机理

通过系统地收集与整理１９８９年１０月１９日大同－阳高Ｍｓ６．１、１９９６年５月３日包头西Ｍｓ６．４与１９９８年１月１０日张北－尚义Ｍｓ６．２地震前地下流体异常资料,对比与综合分析了异常的形态特征、空间展布特征、时间变化特征与时空演化特征,进而提出华北北部地区地下流体中短期异常场的形成与演化机理。研究结果表明,中期异常场是区域构造活动的强化产生了地下流体的短期异常场,震源体发展到临震阶段时在震中区生     

山东半岛沿岸的大振幅假潮

根据山东半岛沿岸１２ 个验潮站的水位资料曲线,摘取了各站的假潮参数（周期、振幅、延时和峰值出现时刻）,并对该区域沿岸大振幅假潮变化做了统计分析,给出了假潮的基本特征——发生频率、月出现率、振动周期、延时和峰值出现的时刻;分析了假潮周期的谱型,最后还讨论了大振幅假潮形成的初步原因。     

华北地区断层现今活动速率与特征

系统分析了华北地区跨断层形变资料,计算了断层活动平均速率,研究了断层活动年变率的动态演化。结果表明,华北地区现今断层活动水平较低,平均速率为０．１７ｍｍ／ａ;山西—延怀地区断层活动水平高于华北地区平均水平;山西带及郯庐带北端活动速率呈上升趋势,这与现今及近期的地震活动有密切关系;强烈地震发生前,存在大范围断层活动平均速率的增加;大范围断层活动方式的转折,可能是地震活动分期的重要标志之一     

张北6.2级地震地形变前兆演化特征

分析了张北6.2级地震前后华北地区水准、GPS、重力、定点形变、流动形变、地应变观测资料及前兆的演化过程。结果表明,深大构造对背景场起着控制及传递的作用;震中区位于经历了剧烈地壳运动后近年处于相对平静的地区;背景场与前兆异常动态过程的密切配合,是作出正确震情判定的关键;前兆异常在震后的新发展,在震后趋势预测中有重要作用。     

Acoustic evaluation of cementing quality using obliquely incident ultrasonic signals

Ultrasonic cement bond logging is a widely used method for evaluating cementing quality. Conventional ultrasonic cement bond logging uses vertical incidence and cannot accurately evaluate lightweight cement bonding. Oblique incidence is a new technology for evaluating cement quality with improved accuracy for lightweight cements. In this study, we simulated models of acoustic impedance of cement and cementing quality using ultrasonic oblique incidence, and we obtained the relation between cementing quality, acoustic impedance of cement, and the acoustic attenuation coefficient of the A0-mode and S0-mode Lamb waves. Then, we simulated models of different cement thickness and we obtained the relation between cement thickness and the time difference of the arrival between the A0 and A0′ modes.     

中亚及中国西部侏罗纪沉积盆地的构造特征

侏罗纪是中亚和中国西部地区沉积盆地主要形成时期,这表现在两个方面:(1)先期存在的盆地在此阶段沉积范围持续扩大;(2)形成了许多新的侏罗纪沉积盆地.本文通过对劳亚大陆南部侏罗纪特提斯北带构造特征、诸盆地早-中侏罗世岩相古地理和构造样式的分析,表明中国西部与中亚地区在侏罗纪时虽然都处于新特提斯北部被动大陆边缘,但由于受帕米尔弧向北推挤的影响,以及昆仑构造带与塔拉斯-费尔干纳断裂和阿尔金大型走滑断裂的存在,这两个地区的侏罗纪盆地具有完全不同的构造起因.以塔拉斯-费尔干纳断裂为界,西南侧中亚地区的侏罗纪沉积盆地主要是由新特提斯北部大陆边缘的被动伸展形成;东北侧中国西部的侏罗纪沉积盆地则主要发育于区域性挤压构造背景之下,形成的主要机制是重力陷落.此外,沿塔拉斯-费尔干纳断裂还存在几个侏罗纪的走滑拉分盆地.中国西部与中亚地区侏罗纪盆地的不同成因特征对盆地的比较研究和寻找侏罗系烃源岩都具有重要意义.     

地下水对震源体应力、应变场的影响——以唐山地震为例

通过数值模拟 ,研究渗流场和应力场相互作用 ,了解在震源区地下水对应力场和应变场的影响。结果表明 ,岩石的抗剪强度及摩擦阻力随孔隙压力的增加而降低 ,孔隙压力使应变分布发生变化 ,断层及其附近剪切应力升高。地下水的这些效应可能与地震震源过程有关     

Azimuthal cement evaluation with an acoustic phased-arc array transmitter: numerical simulations and field tests

We developed a novel cement evaluation logging tool, named the azimuthally acoustic bond tool (AABT), which uses a phased-arc array transmitter with azimuthal detection capability. We combined numerical simulations and field tests to verify the AABT tool. The numerical simulation results showed that the radiation direction of the subarray corresponding to the maximum amplitude of the first arrival matches the azimuth of the channeling when it is behind the casing. With larger channeling size in the circumferential direction, the amplitude difference of the casing wave at different azimuths becomes more evident. The test results showed that the AABT can accurately locate the casing collars and evaluate the cement bond quality with azimuthal resolution at the casing—cement interface, and can visualize the size, depth, and azimuth of channeling. In the case of good casing—cement bonding, the AABT can further evaluate the cement bond quality at the cement—formation interface with azimuthal resolution by using the amplitude map and the velocity of the formation wave.     

A study on the Dushiling tungsten-copper deposit in the Miao’ershan-Yuechengling area,Northern Guangxi,China: Implications for variations in the mineralization of multi-aged composite granite plutons

The polymetallic Dushiling W-Cu deposit is a large, altered, skarn-type deposit, located in the northeastern part of the Miao'ershan-Yuechengling pluton, China. Two types of granite have been identified in the deposit: a medium-grained porphyritic biotite granite, and a medium- to fine-grained biotite granite. Both are spatially and temporally related to ore bodies, suggesting they may be the source of mineralization in the deposit. A medium- to fine-grained porphyritic biotite granite is exposed at the surface in the region of mineralization. U-Pb dating of zircons yielded magmatic ages of 423 Ma for the medium-grained porphyritic biotite granite and 421 Ma for the medium- to fine-grained porphyritic biotite granite, while a younger age(217 Ma) obtained for surface samples indicates later diagenesis. Thus, magmatism occurred during the Caledonian and Indosinian, respectively. The petrological and geochemical characteristics of the two Caledonian granites show that both are calc-alkaline and peraluminous.They are moderately enriched in Cs, Rb, U, and REE, and strongly depleted in Sr,Ba,P,and Ti; they show similar REE behavior,including negative Eu anomalies. These geochemical similarities suggest that the two granites were derived from the same source,although they were emplaced during different stages of the evolution of the magma. Furthermore, the granites are associated with mineralization, suggesting they were the source of mineralization in the Dushiling W-Cu deposit. Sm-Nd ages of scheelite from the Dushiling W-Cu deposit indicate that metallogenesis occurred at 417±35 Ma, while the two types of titanite, intergrown with scheelite, yield U-Pb ages of 423–425 Ma(in altered granite sample) and 218 Ma(in skarn sample). These ages place the main mineralization event in the late Caledonian, and later magmatic-hydrothermal activity occurred in the Indosinian. The ages obtained for the Dushiling W-Cu deposit in the western Nanling Range, northern Yuechengling, together with the occurrence and ages of the Niutangjie W deposit in southern Yuechengling, provide insight into the process of ore concentration during the Caledonian and Indosinian.