T -distributed Random Fields: A Parametric Model for Heavy-tailedWell-log Data1

Histograms of observations from spatial phenomena are often found to be more heavy-tailed than Gaussian distributions, which makes the Gaussian random field model unsuited. A T-distributed random field model with heavy-tailed marginal probability density functions is defined. The model is a generalization of the familiar Student-T distribution, and it may be given a Bayesian interpretation. The increased variability appears cross-realizations, contrary to in-realizations, since all realizations are Gaussian-like with varying variance between realizations. The T-distributed random field model is analytically tractable and the conditional model is developed, which provides algorithms for conditional simulation and prediction, so-called T-kriging. The model compares favourably with most previously defined random field models. The Gaussian random field model appears as a special, limiting case of the T-distributed random field model. The model is particularly useful whenever multiple, sparsely sampled realizations of the random field are available, and is clearly favourable to the Gaussian model in this case. The properties of the T-distributed random field model is demonstrated on well log observations from the Gullfaks field in the North Sea. The predictions correspond to traditional kriging predictions, while the associated prediction variances are more representative, as they are layer specific and include uncertainty caused by using variance estimates.     

韧性剪切变形对岩石地球化学行为的制约——以北阿尔金巴什考供韧性剪切带为例

韧性剪切变形对岩石地球化学行为的制约一直是地质学家们探讨的课题。本文以构成北阿尔金红柳沟——拉配泉俯冲碰撞杂岩带与北阿尔金地块边界的巴什考供斜向逆冲型韧性剪切带为例，通过对韧性剪切带内花岗岩变形前后不同变形强度构造岩的地球化学组成进行对比，确定等比线斜率，探讨韧性变形对岩石体积和成分变异的影响。计算结果表明，在糜棱岩化过程中，糜棱岩化花岗岩体积亏损21％，花岗质糜棱岩体积亏损31％。质量平衡计算结果和等比线图表明，韧；陛剪切作用导致SiO2，流失量最大，A12O3、K2O及Ba、Rb、Sr等都有不同程度的丢失，显示出较强的活动性，MnO、P2O5、Sc位于等比线上或附近，表现出相对的稳定性。岩石中活动组分的变异是流体渗滤作用引起的，不活动组分的变异是体．积亏损造成的。     

Annual amphidromes: a common feature in the ocean?

The scientific term "amphidrome" is usually associated with tides in oceanography. The dozen tidal amphidromes observed in the ocean are critical points that determine the fundamental pattern of the global tidal system. Exploration of recently available satellite data with an unprecedented 1-2 decades duration suggests that an amphidrome is not a tide-only phenomenon in the ocean. Analysis of altimeter-derived sea level anomaly (SLA) data and radiometer-derived sea surface temperature (SST) data allows ten amphidromic points to be clearly identified in annual SLA and SST variations. These amphidromes are located in the tropical areas of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans. Their existence implies that the annual cycle (in time) of the atmosphere-ocean system is translated into a rotary variation (in space) for many of the geophysical parameters. It can be concluded that annual amphidromes are common, the knowledge of which is of particular interest, given their annually "constant" nature, for the monitoring and understanding of oceanic, climatic, as well as biological variabilities at seasonal to decadal scales, which strongly affect many aspects of the natural and societal activities on the globe.     

西北地区不同类型云的时空分布及其与降水的关系

利用1983年7月～2001年9月国际卫星云气候计划ISCCP D2的月平均资料，对西北不同区域不同类型云的云量和云水路径的时空分布及其与降水的关系进行了研究。结果表明:高原气候区是各种云出现最多的地区，特别是积状云的云量明显高于其他两区，但这些云的云水路径值低；西北地区大多数云云量的高值区出现在天山山区、北疆地区、陕西东南部和青藏高原的部分地区。高云和部分中云云量空间分布特征与降水有着较好的一致性:沿着天山—昆仑山—祁连山一带以及陕南和／或陇南地区是高值区，低值区在塔里木盆地—内蒙古西部戈壁沙漠—黄土高原西北部一带；绝大多数云类春夏季节云量维持较高，秋冬季节云量较少。云水路径值较大的层状云类的云量多寡与降水多寡相一致；积状云类和层积云类云量多少与降水没有一定的关系，在降水偏少时，这类云的云量大多与降水正常时相近，有些云的云量甚至比降水偏多时还要多。     

影响华东地区热带气旋年频数与热带对流场的关系

利用由美国NOAA系列卫星观测的OLR资料研究了影响华东地区热带气旋年频数（记为ATC）与热带对流场的关系，结果表明两者存在密切的联系：（1）当华东地区热带气旋年频数ATC为异常偏多（少）时，ITCZ位置累积距平为正（负）值，即ITCZ位置异常偏北（南）；（2）利用OLR设计了Walker综合指数WI，该指数的强弱可以反映ATC的异常情况，即当ATC为异常偏多（少）时，walker环流圈异常强（弱）；（3）OLR距平累积量场能较好的表征ATC异常年份所对应的低纬度及中高纬地区大气环流的配置，其可以作为预测影响华东地区热带气旋年频数的强信号。     

黄海及其沿岸历史地震初步研究

黄海及其边缘，经历史地震资料整理，地震参数估定与编目，截至1949年8月，共有M≥3级地震2187次，其中M≥43/4级地震259次，资料显示大致有三个相对集中活跃区，16世纪曾有过历史地震活动高潮。     

关于水资源承载力理论与方法的研究

本文首先明确了水资源承载力的基本概念 ,指出可持续发展理论、水 -生态 -社会经济复合系统理论、二元模式下的水文循环机制和过程是水资源承载力研究的理论基础 ,对水资源承载力研究的基本内容、评价指标体系的建立和评价方法进行了较全面的概括和总结。     

新时期我国区域经济地理学发展问题初探

我国新时期的区域经济地理学在取得全面发展的同时，在理论体系，研究方法和实践领域等方面还需要进一步的发展，文章根据学习和实践区域经济地理学的体会，初步提出基础理论和应用理论，思维方法和技术方法等方面发展见解，并指出区域创新系统和国际经济技术合作等学科应注意拓展的重要实践领域，最后提出我国区域经济地理学科发展的建议。     

华南地区凉果加工业与凉果资源的匹配关系分析——以广东省新兴县为例

文章以广东省新兴县为例，从凉果资源分布与加工能力的匹配关系角度对华南地区凉果资源的分布，凉果加工业的分布与布局，凉果市场分布与竞争力，凉果加工业与资源的匹配关系等进行了分析，并针对华南地区凉果加工业面临的主要问题提供了一些建议。