Implementing quality control on a random number stream to improve a stochastic weather generator

For decades, stochastic modellers have used computerized random number generators to produce random numeric sequences fitting a specified statistical distribution. Unfortunately, none of the random number generators we tested satisfactorily produced the target distribution. The result is generated distributions whose mean even diverges from the mean used to generate them, regardless of the length of run. Non‐uniform distributions from short sequences of random numbers are a major problem in stochastic climate generation, because truly uniform distributions are required to produce the intended climate parameter distributions. In order to ensure generation of a representative climate with the stochastic weather generator CLIGEN within a 30‐year run, we tested the climate output resulting from various random number generators. The resulting distributions of climate parameters showed significant departures from the target distributions in all cases. We traced this failure back to the uniform random number generators themselves. This paper proposes a quality control approach to select only those numbers that conform to the expected distribution being retained for subsequent use. The approach is based on goodness‐of‐fit analysis applied to the random numbers generated. Normally distributed deviates are further tested with confidence interval tests on their means and standard deviations. The positive effect of the new approach on the climate characteristics generated and the subsequent deterministic process‐based hydrology and soil erosion modelling are illustrated for four climatologically diverse sites. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improvement of distributed snowmelt energy balance modeling with MODIS‐based NDSI‐derived fractional snow‐covered area data

Describing the spatial variability of heterogeneous snowpacks at a watershed or mountain‐front scale is important for improvements in large‐scale snowmelt modelling. Snowmelt depletion curves, which relate fractional decreases in snow‐covered area (SCA) against normalized decreases in snow water equivalent (SWE), are a common approach to scale‐up snowmelt models. Unfortunately, the kinds of ground‐based observations that are used to develop depletion curves are expensive to gather and impractical for large areas. We describe an approach incorporating remotely sensed fractional SCA (FSCA) data with coinciding daily snowmelt SWE outputs during ablation to quantify the shape of a depletion curve. We joined melt estimates from the Utah Energy Balance Snow Accumulation and Melt Model (UEB) with FSCA data calculated from a normalized difference snow index snow algorithm using NASA's moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) visible (0·545–0·565 µm) and shortwave infrared (1·628–1·652 µm) reflectance data. We tested the approach at three 500 m² study sites, one in central Idaho and the other two on the North Slope in the Alaskan arctic. The UEB‐MODIS‐derived depletion curves were evaluated against depletion curves derived from ground‐based snow surveys. Comparisons showed strong agreement between the independent estimates. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding geomorphic responses to environmental change: a 19 000‐year case study from semi‐arid central Texas,USA

Understanding the impact of past climatic changes on landscape stability is crucial in order to predict and mitigate the effects of future changes. However, in arid and semi‐arid environments, reconstructions are often hampered by a poor understanding of the relationship between sediment deposition and climate. We present here data from central Texas, a region that is sensitive to environmental change but has received relatively little attention. The study integrates a chronology of 29 optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages from six sedimentary sites in a range of depositional contexts with a 19 000 a climate record derived from pollen extracted from the adjacent Boriack Bog. By comparing the two records, we aimed to assess the relationship between climate change and geomorphic activity. Data show that extensive aeolian and colluvial deposition occurred during the mid to late Holocene, with sedimentation generally increasing during more arid phases. However, a number of depositional events on slopes were associated with moister episodes, and sediment was also deposited in a summit setting immediately after phases of increased precipitation. Linkages between climate change and geomorphic response were therefore complex, being controlled by both sediment supply and transport energy. The climatic fluctuations identified in the Boriack Bog record highlight the sensitivity of central Texas to environmental change, while disparities in conditions recorded between it and other palaeoenvironmental sites in the southern USA emphasise the need for further work in order to enhance understanding of landscape sedimentary response to climate. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Controls on surface water chemistry in two lake‐watersheds in the Adirondack region of New York: differences in nitrogen solute sources and sinks

The southwestern Adirondack region of New York receives among the highest rates of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition in the USA. Atmospheric N deposition to sensitive ecosystems, like the Adirondacks, may increase the acidification of soils through losses of exchangeable nutrient cations, and the acidification of surface waters associated with enhanced mobility of nitrate (NO₃^?). However, watershed attributes, including surficial terrestrial characteristics, in‐lake processing, and geological settings, have been found to complicate the relationships between atmospheric N deposition and N drainage losses. We studied two lake‐watersheds in the southwestern Adirondacks, Grass Pond and Constable Pond, which are located in close proximity (～26 km) and receive similarly high N deposition, but have contrasting watershed attributes (e.g. wetland area, geological settings). Since the difference in the influence of N deposition was minimal, we were able to examine both within‐ and between‐watershed influences of land cover, the contribution of glacial till groundwater inputs, and in‐lake processes on surface water chemistry with particular emphasis on N solutes and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Monthly samples at seven inlets and one outlet of each lake were collected from May to October in 1999 and 2000. The concentrations of NO₃^? were high at the Grass Pond inlets, especially at two inlets, and NO₃^? was the major N solute at the Grass Pond inlets. The concentrations of likely weathering products (i.e. dissolved Si, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺) as well as acid neutralizing capacity and pH values, were also particularly high at those two Grass Pond inlets, suggesting a large contribution of groundwater inputs. Dissolved organic N (DON) was the major N solute at the Constable Pond inlets. The higher concentrations of DON and DOC at the Constable Pond inlets were attributed to a large wetland area in the watershed. The DOC/DON ratios were also higher at the Constable Pond inlets, possibly due to a larger proportion of coniferous forest area. Although DON and DOC were strongly related, the stronger relationship of the proportion of wetland area with DOC suggests that additional factors regulate DON. The aggregated representation of watershed physical features (i.e. elevation, watershed area, mean topographic index, hypsometric‐analysis index) was not clearly related to the lake N and DOC chemistry. Despite distinctive differences in inlet N chemistry, NO₃^? and DON concentrations at the outlets of the two lakes were similar. The lower DOC/DON ratios at the lake outlets and at the inlets having upstream ponds suggest the importance of N processing and organic N sources within the lakes. Although an inverse relationship between NO₃^? and DOC/DON has been suggested to be indicative of a N deposition gradient, the existence of this relationship for sites that receive similar atmospheric N deposition suggest that the relationship between NO₃^? and the DOC/DON ratio is derived from environmental and physical factors. Our results suggest that, despite similar wet N deposition at the two watershed sites, N solutes entering lakes were strongly affected by hydrology associated with groundwater contribution and the presence of wetlands, whereas N solutes leaving lakes were strongly influenced by in‐lake processing. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

New 1982 — 1990 photometry of λ Andromedae and its 11-year cycle

We present photoelectric photometry of λ And never before published, obtained between February 1982 and December 1990 at 29 different observatories. Then we combine it with all other photometry available to us (previously published, contained in the I.A.U. Commission 27 Archives, and obtained with the Vanderbilt 16-inch automatic telescope but not yet published), to yield a 14.8-year data base. Analysis reveals a long-term cycle in mean brightness, with a full range of 0^m.15 and a period of 11.4 ± 0.4 years. Because most of our new photometry was concentrated in the 1983-84 observing season, we analyze that one well-defined light curve with a two-spot model. Spot A keeps a 0^m.04 amplitude throughout four rotation cycles whereas the amplitude of spot B diminishes from 0^m.09 down almost to 0^m.03. The spot rotation periods were 55^d.9 ± 0^d.6 and 520^d.8 ± 1^d.0, respectively.     

Mid-infrared, spatially resolved spectroscopy of the nucleus of the Circinus galaxy

High spatial resolution spectroscopy at 8–13 μm with T-ReCS on Gemini-S has revealed striking variations in the mid-infrared emission and absorption in the nucleus of the Circinus galaxy (hereafter Circinus) on subarcsecond scales. The core of Circinus is compact and obscured by a substantial column of cool silicate dust. Weak extended emission to the east and west coincides with the coronal line region and arises from featureless dust grains which are probably heated by line emission in the coronal emission zone. The extended emission on the east side of the nucleus displays a much deeper silicate absorption than that on the west, indicating significant columns of cool material along the line of sight and corresponding to an additional extinction of   A_V ∼ 25 mag  . Emission bands from aromatic hydrocarbons are not subject to this additional extinction, are relatively weak in the core and in the coronal line region, and are much more spatially extended than the continuum dust emission; they presumably arise in the circumnuclear star-forming regions. These data are interpreted in terms of an inclined disc-like structure around the nucleus extending over tens of parsecs and possibly related to the inner disc found from observations of water masers by Greenhill et al..     

Modelling the effects of land‐use change on water and salt delivery from a catchment affected by dryland salinity in south‐east Australia

A comprehensive framework for the assessment of water and salt balance for large catchments affected by dryland salinity is applied to the Boorowa River catchment (1550 km²), located in south‐eastern Australia. The framework comprised two models, each focusing on a different aspect and operating on a different scale. A quasi‐physical semi‐distributed model CATSALT was used to estimate runoff and salt fluxes from different source areas within the catchment. The effects of land use, climate, topography, soils and geology are included. A groundwater model FLOWTUBE was used to estimate the long‐term effects of land‐use change on groundwater discharge. Unlike conventional salinity studies that focus on groundwater alone, this study makes use of a new approach to explore surface and groundwater interactions with salt stores and the stream. Land‐use change scenarios based on increased perennial pasture and tree‐cover content of the vegetation, aimed at high leakage and saline discharge areas, are investigated. Likely downstream impacts of the reduction in flow and salt export are estimated. The water balance model was able to simulate both the daily observed stream flow and salt load at the catchment outlet for high and low flow conditions satisfactorily. Mean leakage rate of about 23·2 mm year^?1 under current land use for the Boorowa catchment was estimated. The corresponding mean runoff and salt export from the catchment were 89 382 ML year^?1 and 38 938 t year^?1, respectively. Investigation of various land‐use change scenarios indicates that changing annual pastures and cropping areas to perennial pastures is not likely to result in substantial improvement of water quality in the Boorowa River. A land‐use change of about 20% tree‐cover, specifically targeting high recharge and the saline discharge areas, would be needed to decrease stream salinity by 150 µS cm^?1 from its current level. Stream salinity reductions of about 20 µS cm^?1 in the main Lachlan River downstream of the confluence of the Boorowa River is predicted. The FLOWTUBE modelling within the Boorowa River catchment indicated that discharge areas under increased recharge conditions could re‐equilibrate in around 20 years for the catchment, and around 15 years for individual hillslopes. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Observations of GRS 1915+105 from the USA Experiment on ARGOS

We present first results from a monitoring campaign of GRS 1915+105 undertaken with the USA X-ray timing experiment on the ARGOS satellite. A variety of behaviour has been observed, ranging from low, steady X-ray emission to rapid quasi-periodic flaring on timescales of approximately 10–120 seconds.