Design and Production of an Atlas for Diplomacy in Zimbabwe and The Southern African Development Community

Abstract

An atlas of Zimbabwe and the Southern African Development Community was designed and produced for use by American diplomats in Zimbabwe. Two copies of the bound atlas are used by the Embassy of the United States of America (U.S. Embassy) and the Mission of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) in Harare, Zimbabwe, to orient visitors and discuss matters of diplomacy and development in Zimbabwe and the Southern African Development Community. The atlas contains maps derived from satellite images showing features of the physical geography of Southern Africa and Zimbabwe and plastic overlays showing rivers and lakes and manmade features, such as major roads, railroads, and cities. The atlas is an important tool that American diplomats can use to orient participants in discussions of the environment and to develop agreements for management of the environment in Zimbabwe and Southern Africa.     

Comparing expert judgement and numerical criteria for hydrograph evaluation

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between expert judgement and numerical criteria when evaluating hydrological model performance by comparing simulated and observed hydrographs. Using a web-based survey, we collected the visual evaluations of 150 experts on a set of high- and low-flow hydrographs. We then compared these answers with results from 60 numerical criteria. Agreement between experts was found to be more frequent in absolute terms (when rating models) than in relative terms (when comparing models), and better for high flows than for low flows. When comparing the set of 150 expert judgements with numerical criteria, we found that most expert judgements were loosely correlated with a numerical criterion, and that the criterion that best reflects expert judgement varies from expert to expert. Overall, we identified two groups of 10 criteria yielding an equivalent match with the expertise of the 150 participants in low and high flows, respectively. A single criterion common to both groups (the Hydrograph Matching Algorithm with mean absolute error) may represent a good indicator for the overall evaluation of models based on hydrographs. We conclude that none of the numerical criteria examined here can fully replace expert judgement when rating hydrographs, and that both relative and absolute evaluations should be based on the judgement of multiple experts.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

On the reliability of C iv λ1549 as an abundance indicator for high-redshift star-forming galaxies

We reconsider the use of the equivalent width of C  iv  λ1549, EW(C  iv ), as an indicator of the oxygen abundance in star-forming galaxies, as proposed by Heckman et al. for nearby starbursts. We refine the local calibration of EW(C  iv ) versus log (O/H) by using a restricted wavelength window which minimizes blending with interstellar absorption lines. When applied to the stellar component only of the complex C  iv  λ1549 features in two high-redshift galaxies with good quality spectra,  MS 1512−cB58 ( z = 2.7268)  and  Q1307−BM1163 ( z = 1.4105)  , the local calibration gives values of the oxygen abundance which are in good agreement with other metallicity determinations based on nebular emission and interstellar absorption lines. Our main conclusion is that for this method to give reliable results at high redshifts, it should only be used on data of sufficiently high spectral resolution  ( R ≳ 1000)  for stellar and interstellar C  iv components to be clearly separated. Oxygen abundances will be systematically overestimated if the local calibration is applied to spectra of high-redshift galaxies obtained with the low resolving powers  ( R ≃ 200–300)  of many current wide-field surveys. It will also be necessary to understand better the causes of the scatter in the local relation, before we can be confident of inferences from it at high z .     

Uninhabited habitats on Mars

Investigations of Mars as a potential location for life often make the assumption that where there are habitats, they will contain organisms. However, the observation of the ubiquitous distribution of life in habitable environments on the Earth does not imply the presence of life in martian habitats. Although uninhabited habitats are extremely rare on the Earth, a lack of a productive photosynthetic biosphere on Mars to generate organic carbon and oxygen, thus providing a rapidly available redox couple for energy acquisition by life and/or a lack of connectivity between habitats potentially increases the scope and abundance of uninhabited habitats for much of the geological history of the planet. Uninhabited habitats could have existed on Mars from the Noachian to the present-day in impact hydrothermal systems, megaflood systems, lacustrine environments, transient melted permafrost, gullies and local regions of volcanic activity; and there may be evidence for them in martian meteorites. Uninhabited habitats would provide control habitats to investigate the role of biology in planetary-scale geochemical processes on the Earth and they would provide new constraints on the habitability of Mars. Future robotic craft and samples returned from Mars will be able to directly show if uninhabited habitats exist or existed on Mars.     

Determination of Electromagnetic Source Direction as an Eigenvalue Problem

Low-frequency solar and interplanetary radio bursts are generated at frequencies below the ionospheric plasma cutoff and must therefore be measured in space, with deployable antenna systems. The problem of measuring both the general direction and polarization of an electromagnetic source is commonly solved by iterative fitting methods such as linear regression that deal simultaneously with both directional and polarization parameters. We have developed a scheme that separates the problem of deriving the source direction from that of determining the polarization, avoiding iteration in a multi-dimensional manifold. The crux of the method is to first determine the source direction independently of concerns as to its polarization. Once the source direction is known, its direct characterization in terms of Stokes vectors, in a single iteration if desired, is relatively simple. This study applies the source-direction determination to radio signatures of flares received by STEREO. We studied two previously analyzed radio type III bursts and found that the results of the eigenvalue decomposition technique are consistent with those obtained previously by Reiner et al. (Solar Phys. 259, 255, 2009). For the type III burst observed on 7 December 2007, the difference in travel times from the derived source location to STEREO A and B is the same as the difference in the onset times of the burst profiles measured by the two spacecraft. This is consistent with emission originating from a single, relatively compact source. For the second event of 29 January 2008, the relative timing does not agree, suggesting emission from two sources separated by 0.1 AU, or perhaps from an elongated region encompassing the apparent source locations.     

An explicit one-dimensional consolidation solution with semi-permeable drainage boundary for unsaturated soil

Existing solutions for analyzing one-dimensional (1-D) consolidation of unsaturated soil are only derived to cater to two extreme drainage conditions (fully drained and undrained). This study presents a new explicit solution for 1-D consolidation of unsaturated soil with semi-permeable drainage boundary. Based on the assumptions of two independent stress variables and the governing equations proposed by Fredlund, the eigenfunction expansion method is adopted to develop an explicit analytical solution to calculate excess pore-water and pore-air pressures in an unsaturated soil when it is subjected to external loads. The developed general solutions are expressed in terms of depth, z, and time, t. For the semi-permeable drainage boundary, eigenvalues and eigenfunctions in the space domain are developed. The technique of Laplace transform is used to solve the coupled ordinary differential equations in the time domain. The newly derived explicit solution is verified with the existing semi-analytical method in the literature, and an excellent agreement is obtained. Compared with the semi-analytical solution, the newly derived analytical solution is more straightforward and explicit so that this solution is relatively easier to be implemented into a computer program to carry out a preliminary assessment of 1-D consolidation of unsaturated soil.     

A comparison of methods for low streamflow estimation from spot measurements

Low streamflow statistic estimators at ungauged river sites generally have large errors and uncertainties. This can be due to many reasons, including lack of data, complex hydrologic processes, and the inadequate or improper characterization of watershed hydrogeology. One potential solution is to take a small number of streamflow measurements at an ungauged site to either estimate hydrogeologic indices or transfer information from a nearby site using concurrent streamflow measurements. An analysis of four low streamflow estimation techniques, regional regression, regional plus hydrogeologic indices, baseflow correlation, and scaling, was performed within the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint watershed, a U.S. Geological Survey WaterSMART region in the south‐eastern United States. The latter three methods employ a nominal number of spot measurements at the ungauged site to improve low streamflow estimation. Results indicate that baseflow correlation and scaling methods, which transfer information from a donor site, can produce improved low streamflow estimators when spot measurements are available. Estimation of hydrogeologic indices from spot measurements improves regional regression models, with the baseflow recession constant having more explanatory power than the aquifer time constant, but these models are generally outperformed by baseflow correlation and scaling.     

Precaution and proportionality in the management of global environmental change

The precautionary principle is a mandate to tread cautiously when managing novel threats to the environment or human health. A major obstacle when applying the principle at the international level is disagreement about how precautionary efforts should be constrained to ensure that policy costs are proportional to the attained level of protection. Proportionality is an unresolved question when preliminary evidence precludes decision-makers from assigning probabilities over future events. The paper suggests practical analytical tools for communicating ex ante trade-offs when probabilities are unavailable. The tools could be used to facilitate discussion and compromise when implementing precautionary decisions in international settings where cooperation is important. The approach is demonstrated in an application to climate policy that uses the integrated assessment model DICE (Nordhaus, 2008). The paper also situates the task of precautionary decision-making within the broader context of implementing a precautionary response at the international level.     

Partial melting due to breakdown of an epidote‐group mineral during exhumation of ultrahigh‐pressure eclogite: An example from the North‐East Greenland Caledonides

In the North‐East Greenland Caledonides, P–T conditions and textures are consistent with partial melting of ultrahigh‐pressure (UHP) eclogite during exhumation. The eclogite contains a peak assemblage of garnet, omphacite, kyanite, coesite, rutile, and clinozoisite; in addition, phengite is inferred to have been present at peak conditions. An isochemical phase equilibrium diagram, along with garnet isopleths, constrains peak P–T conditions to be subsolidus at 3.4 GPa and 940°C. Zr‐in‐rutile thermometry on inclusions in garnet yields values of ~820°C at 3.4 GPa. In the eclogite, plagioclase may exhibit cuspate textures against surrounding omphacite and has low dihedral angles in plagioclase–clinopyroxene–garnet aggregates, features that are consistent with former melt–solid–solid boundaries and crystallized melt pockets. Graphic intergrowths of plagioclase and amphibole are present in the matrix. Small euhedral neoblasts of garnet against plagioclase are interpreted as formed from a peritectic reaction during partial melting. Polymineralic inclusions of albite+K‐feldspar and clinopyroxene+quartz±kyanite±plagioclase in large anhedral garnet display plagioclase cusps pointing into the host, which are interpreted as crystallized melt pockets. These textures, along with the mineral composition, suggest partial melting of the eclogite by reactions involving phengite and, to a large extent, an epidote‐group mineral. Calculated and experimentally determined phase relations from the literature reveal that partial melting occurred on the exhumation path, at pressures below the coesite to quartz transition. A calculated P–T phase diagram for a former melt‐bearing domain shows that the formation of the peritectic garnet rim occurred at 1.4 GPa and 900°C, with an assemblage of clinopyroxene, amphibole, and plagioclase equilibrated at 1.3 GPa and 720°C. Isochemical phase equilibrium modelling of a symplectite of clinopyroxene, plagioclase, and amphibole after omphacite, combined with the mineral composition, yields a P–T range at 1.0–1. 6 GPa, 680–1,000°C. The assemblage of amphibole and plagioclase is estimated to reach equilibrium at 717–732°C, calculated by amphibole–plagioclase thermometry for the former melt‐bearing domain and symplectite respectively. The results of this study demonstrate that partial melt formed in the UHP eclogite through breakdown of an epidote‐group mineral with minor involvement of phengite during exhumation from peak pressure; melt was subsequently crystallized on the cooling path.     

Effect of combined translation and torsion on undrained uplift capacity of plate anchors: Plastic limit analysis (PLA) solution

Uplift capacity of plate anchors has been the focus of numerous studies, because anchor plates are designed for pull‐out in normal operating conditions. However, the response of plate anchors under 6‐degrees‐of‐freedom loading caused during extreme loading conditions is poorly understood. The purpose of this study is to propose a simple yet sufficiently accurate analytical solution to investigate the behavior of plate anchor under combined in‐plane translation and torsion and to evaluate its effect on the plate uplift bearing capacity. To this end, a modified plastic limit analysis (PLA) approach is introduced and compared with limit equilibrium and simplified upper bound baseline solutions. The proposed method is verified with 3‐dimensional finite element. The variables considered in this study include plate aspect ratio, plate thickness, as well as load direction and eccentricity. Results of analytical solutions indicate the insensitivity of the “shape” of the shear‐torsion yield envelope to plate thickness. This finding facilitates the use of simplified yet reasonable yield envelope for infinitely thin plate obtained from simplified PLA approach for other plate thicknesses. The “size” of the failure envelope (controlled by pure torsional and translational capacity) could be predicted fairly accurately by PLA and limit equilibrium methods. Combination of these analytical methods offers a simple yet reasonably accurate solution to describe shear‐torsion response of anchor plate. The obtained shear‐torsion yield envelope is then fitted in the generalized 6‐degrees‐of‐freedom yield surface which describes the reducing effect of moment, torsion, and planar forces on the uplift capacity of plate.