Applying a Regional Transport Modeling Framework to Manage Nitrate Contamination of Groundwater

Regional nitrate contamination in groundwater is a management challenge involving multisector benefits. There is always conflict between restricting anthropogenic activities to protect groundwater quality and prioritizing economic development, especially in productive agriculture dominated areas. To mitigate the nitrate contamination in groundwater, it is necessary to develop management alternatives that simultaneously support environmental protection and sustainable economic development. A regional transport modeling framework is applied to evaluate nitrate fate and transport in the Dagu Aquifer, a shallow sandy aquifer that supplies drinking water and irrigation water for a thriving agricultural economy in Shandong Province in east coastal China. The aquifer supports intensive high-value vegetable farms and nitrate contamination is extensive. Detailed land-use information and fertilizer use data were compiled and statistical approaches were employed to analyze nitrogen source loadings and the spatiotemporal distribution of nitrate in groundwater to support model construction and calibration. The evaluations reveal that the spatial distribution and temporal trends of nitrate contamination in the Dagu Aquifer are driven by intensive fertilization and vertical water exchange, the dominant flow pattern derived from intensive agricultural pumping and irrigation. The modeling framework is employed to assess the effectiveness of potentially applicable management alternatives. The predictive results provide quantitative comparisons for the trend and extent of groundwater quality mitigation under each scenario. Recommendations are made for measures that can both improve groundwater quality and sustain productive agricultural development.     

Deep‐sea channel evolution and stratigraphic architecture from inception to abandonment from high‐resolution Autonomous Underwater Vehicle surveys offshore central California

The Lucia Chica channel system is an avulsion belt with four adjacent channels that progressively avulsed to the north‐east from a single, upslope feeder channel. Avulsion occurred from underfilled channels, leaving open channels that were reactivated by flows stripped from younger, adjacent channels. Differences in relief (height from channel thalweg to levée crest), sinuosity and levée stratigraphy between adjacent channels correspond to relative channel age, and indicate a change in channel morphology and architecture with time. Potential triggers for the change over time include differences in gradient, flow behaviour and characteristics, and channel evolution. Gradient does not appear to be a major control on channel formation and avulsion because adjacent channels formed on the same gradient. Based on available ultra‐high‐resolution remote imaging obtained with an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle, differences in adjacent channel morphology are interpreted to be primarily a result of differences in channel maturity. The interpreted sequence of channel maturity involves erosional channel inception through scouring and incipient channels (defined by linear trains of scours) prior to development of continuous thalwegs. Channel narrowing, formation and growth of levées, increasing channel relief and development of sinuosity occurred as channels evolved. The evolutionary sequence interpreted from the high‐resolution Lucia Chica dataset provides a unique perspective on intrinsic controls of architecture for single channel elements. In addition to helping bridge the gap between outcrop and industry‐standard reflection‐seismic data resolutions and scopes, interpretations in this study also expose potential problems with hierarchical classifications in three‐dimensional imaging of distributary systems, and provide potentially important analogues for evolutionary morphologies not resolved in other deep‐water channel systems.     

Oceanographic and eustatic control of carbonate platform evolution and sequence stratigraphy on the Cretaceous (Valanginian–Campanian) passive margin,northern Gulf of Mexico

An integrated sequence stratigraphic study based on outcrop, core and wireline log data documents the combined impact of Cretaceous eustacy and oceanic anoxic events on carbonate shelf morphology and facies distributions in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The diverse facies and abundant data of the Comanche platform serve as a nearly complete global reference section and provide a sensitive record of external processes affecting Cretaceous platform development. Regional cross‐sections across the shoreline to shelf‐margin profile provide a detailed record of mixed carbonate–siliciclastic strata for the Hauterivian to lower Campanian stages (ca 136 to 80 Ma). The study window on the slowly subsiding passive margin allows the stratigraphic response to external forcing mechanisms to be isolated from regional structural processes. Three second‐order supersequences comprised of eight composite sequences are recognized in the Valanginian–Barremian, the Aptian–Albian and the Cenomanian–Campanian. The Valanginian–Barremian supersequence transitioned from a siliciclastic ramp to carbonate rimmed shelf and is a product of glacial ice accumulation and melting, as well as variable rates of mid‐ocean ridge volcanism. The Aptian–Albian supersequence chronicles the drowning and recovery of the platform surrounding oceanic anoxic events 1a and 1b. The Cenomanian–Campanian supersequence similarly documents shelf drowning following oceanic anoxic event 1d, after which the platform evolved to a deep‐subtidal system consisting of anoxic/dysoxic shale and chalk in the time surrounding oceanic anoxic event 2. Each period of oceanic anoxia is associated with composite sequence maximum flooding, termination of carbonate shelf sedimentation and deposition of condensed shale units in distally steepened ramp profiles. Composite sequences unaffected by oceanic anoxic events consist of aggradational to progradational shelves with an abundance of grain‐dominated facies and shallow‐subtidal to intertidal environments. Because they are products of eustacy and global oceanographic processes, the three supersequences and most composite sequences defined in the south Texas passive margin are recognizable in other carbonate platforms and published eustatic sea‐level curves.     

Incremental CH4 and N2O mitigation benefits consistent with the US Government's SC-CO2 estimates

Benefit–cost analysis can serve as an informative input into the policy-making process, but only to the degree it characterizes the major impacts of the regulation under consideration. Recently, the US, amongst other nations, has begun to use estimates of the social cost of CO₂ (SC-CO₂) to develop analyses that more fully capture the climate change impacts of GHG abatement. The SC-CO₂ represents the aggregate willingness to pay to avoid the damages associated with an additional tonne of CO₂ emissions. In comparison, the social costs of non-CO₂ GHGs have received little attention from researchers and policy analysts, despite their non-negligible climate impact. This article addresses this issue by developing a set of social cost estimates for two highly prevalent non-CO₂ GHGs, methane and nitrous oxide. By extending existing integrated assessment models, it is possible to develop a set of social cost estimates for these gases that are consistent with the SC-CO₂ estimates currently in use by the US federal government.Policy relevanceWithin the benefit–cost analyses that inform the design of major regulations, all Federal agencies within the US Government (USG) use a set of agreed upon SC-CO₂ estimates to value the impact of CO₂ emissions changes. However, the value of changes in non-CO₂ GHG emissions has not been included in USG policy analysis to date. This article addresses that omission by developing a set of social cost estimates for two highly prevalent non-CO₂ GHGs, methane and nitrous oxide. These new estimates are designed to be compatible with the USG SC-CO₂ estimates currently in use and may therefore be directly applied to value emissions changes for these non-CO₂ gases within the benefit–cost analyses used to evaluate future policies.     

Learning and climate change

Abstract

Learning—i.e. the acquisition of new information that leads to changes in our assessment of uncertainty—plays a prominent role in the international climate policy debate. For example, the view that we should postpone actions until we know more continues to be influential. The latest work on learning and climate change includes new theoretical models, better informed simulations of how learning affects the optimal timing of emissions reductions, analyses of how new information could affect the prospects for reaching and maintaining political agreements and for adapting to climate change, and explorations of how learning could lead us astray rather than closer to the truth. Despite the diversity of this new work, a clear consensus on a central point is that the prospect of learning does not support the postponement of emissions reductions today.     

Seasonal movement and groundwater flow mechanism in an unsaturated saprolitic hillslope

Numerous field monitoring programs have been conducted to investigate the performance of an unsaturated soil slope subjected to rainfalls in wet seasons. Most case histories focus on the response of matric suction, which is one of the two stress-state variables governing unsaturated soil behaviour. However, effects due to another variable, net normal stress, are often ignored. Also, slope performance under alternative wet and dry seasons is rarely reported and analysed. In this study, a saprolitic hillslope situated in Hong Kong was instrumented heavily to investigate its seasonal movement due to changes of the two variables and also groundwater flow mechanism. Two-year seasonal variations of matric suction and net normal stress were monitored by tensiometers together with heat dissipation matric water potential sensors and earth pressure cells, respectively. During heavy rainstorms in wet season, there was a substantial recharge of the main groundwater table, causing a significant increase of positive pore-water pressure in deeper depths. Rupture surface likely developed at depths between 5.5 and 6 m, hence resulting in a “deep-seated” mode of downslope movement. The downslope movement resulted in a peak increase of horizontal stress. In dry seasons, matric suction of up to 190 kPa was recorded, and the associated soil shrinkage led to substantial upslope rebounds. The stress built up in wet seasons hence reduced. After monitoring period of 2 years, downslope ratcheting is identified. Up to 40 % of the downslope displacements were recovered by the upslope rebounds.     

Saltwater intrusion and nitrate pollution in the coastal aquifer of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Dar es Salaam Quaternary coastal aquifer is a major source of water supply in Dar es Salaam City used for domestic, agricultural, and industrial uses. However, groundwater overdraft and contamination are the major problems affecting the aquifer system. This study aims to define the principal hydrogeochemical processes controlling groundwater quality in the coastal strip of Dar es Salaam and to investigate whether the threats of seawater intrusion and pollution are influencing groundwater quality. Major cations and anions analysed in 134 groundwater samples reveal that groundwater is mainly affected by four factors: dissolution of calcite and dolomite, weathering of silicate minerals, seawater intrusion due to aquifer overexploitation, and nitrate pollution mainly caused by the use of pit latrines and septic tanks. High enrichment of Na⁺ and Cl^? near the coast gives an indication of seawater intrusion into the aquifer as also supported from the Na–Cl signature on the Piper diagram. The boreholes close to the coast have much higher Na/Cl molar ratios than the boreholes located further inland. The dissolution of calcite and dolomite in recharge areas results in Ca–HCO₃ and Ca–Mg–HCO₃ groundwater types. Further along flow paths, Ca²⁺ and Na⁺ ion exchange causes groundwater evolution to Na–HCO₃ type. From the PHREEQC simulation model, it appears that groundwater is undersaturated to slightly oversaturated with respect to the calcite and dolomite minerals. The results of this study provide important information required for the protection of the aquifer system.     

A preliminary methods comparison for measurement of dissolved organic nitrogen in seawater

Routine determination of dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) is performed in numerous laboratories around the world using one of three families of methods: UV oxidation (UV), persulfate oxidation (PO), or high temperature combustion (HTC). Essentially all routine methods measure total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) and calculate DON by subtracting the dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN). While there is currently no strong suggestion that any of these methods is inadequate, there are continuing suspicions of slight inaccuracy by UV methods.This is a report of a broad community methods comparison where 29 sets (7 UV, 13 PO, and 9 HTC) of TDN analyses were performed on five samples with varying TDN and DIN concentrations. Analyses were done in a “blind” procedure with results sent to the first author. With editing out one set of extreme outliers (representing 5 out of 145 ampoules analyzed), the community comparability for analyzing the TDN samples was in the 8–28% range (coefficient of variation representing one standard deviation for the five individual samples by 28 analyses). When DIN concentrations were subtracted uniformly (single DIN value for each sample), the comparability was obviously worse (19–46% cv). This comparison represents a larger and more diverse set of analyses, but the overall comparability is only marginally better than that of the Seattle workshop of a decade ago. Grouping methods, little difference was seen other than inconclusive evidence that the UV methods gave TDN values for several of the samples higher than HTC methods. Since there was much scatter for each of the groups of methods and for all analyses when grouped, it is thought that more uniformity in procedures is probably needed. An important unplanned observation is that variability in DIN analyses (used in determining the final analyte in most UV and PO methods) is essentially as large as the variability in the TDN analyses.This exercise should not be viewed as a qualification exercise for the analysts, but should instead be considered a broad preliminary test of the comparison of the families of methods being used in various laboratories around the world. Based on many independent analyses here, none of the routinely used methods appears to be grossly inaccurate, thus, most routine TDN analyses being reported in the literature are apparently accurate. However, it is not reassuring that the ability of the international community to determine DON in deep oceanic waters continues to be poor. It is suggested that as an outgrowth of this paper, analysts using UV and PO methods experiment and look more carefully at the completeness of DIN conversion to the final analyte and also at the accuracy of their analysis of the final analyte. HTC methods appear to be relatively easy and convenient and have potential for routine adoption. Several of the authors of this paper are currently working together on an interlaboratory comparison on HTC methodology.     

Radiative transfer analyses of Titan’s tropical atmosphere

Titan’s optical and near-IR spectra result primarily from the scattering of sunlight by haze and its absorption by methane. With a column abundance of 92 km amagat (11 times that of Earth), Titan’s atmosphere is optically thick and only ～10% of the incident solar radiation reaches the surface, compared to 57% on Earth. Such a formidable atmosphere obstructs investigations of the moon’s lower troposphere and surface, which are highly sensitive to the radiative transfer treatment of methane absorption and haze scattering. The absorption and scattering characteristics of Titan’s atmosphere have been constrained by the Huygens Probe Descent Imager/Spectral Radiometer (DISR) experiment for conditions at the probe landing site (Tomasko, M.G., Bézard, B., Doose, L., Engel, S., Karkoschka, E. [2008a]. Planet. Space Sci. 56, 624–247; Tomasko, M.G. et al. [2008b]. Planet. Space Sci. 56, 669–707). Cassini’s Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) data indicate that the rest of the atmosphere (except for the polar regions) can be understood with small perturbations in the high haze structure determined at the landing site (Penteado, P.F., Griffith, C.A., Tomasko, M.G., Engel, S., See, C., Doose, L., Baines, K.H., Brown, R.H., Buratti, B.J., Clark, R., Nicholson, P., Sotin, C. [2010]. Icarus 206, 352–365). However the in situ measurements were analyzed with a doubling and adding radiative transfer calculation that differs considerably from the discrete ordinates codes used to interpret remote data from Cassini and ground-based measurements. In addition, the calibration of the VIMS data with respect to the DISR data has not yet been tested. Here, VIMS data of the probe landing site are analyzed with the DISR radiative transfer method and the faster discrete ordinates radiative transfer calculation; both models are consistent (to within 0.3%) and reproduce the scattering and absorption characteristics derived from in situ measurements. Constraints on the atmospheric opacity at wavelengths outside those measured by DISR, that is from 1.6 to 5.0 μm, are derived using clouds as diffuse reflectors in order to derive Titan’s surface albedo to within a few percent error and cloud altitudes to within 5 km error. VIMS spectra of Titan at 2.6–3.2 μm indicate not only spectral features due to CH₄ and CH₃D (Rannou, P., Cours, T., Le Mouélic, S., Rodriguez, S., Sotin, C., Drossart, P., Brown, R. [2010]. Icarus 208, 850–867), but also a fairly uniform absorption of unknown source, equivalent to the effects of a darkening of the haze to a single scattering albedo of 0.63 ± 0.05. Titan’s 4.8 μm spectrum point to a haze optical depth of 0.2 at that wavelength. Cloud spectra at 2 μm indicate that the far wings of the Voigt profile extend 460 cm^?1 from methane line centers. This paper releases the doubling and adding radiative transfer code developed by the DISR team, so that future studies of Titan’s atmosphere and surface are consistent with the findings by the Huygens Probe. We derive the surface albedo at eight spectral regions of the 8 × 12 km² area surrounding the Huygens landing site. Within the 0.4–1.6 μm spectral region our surface albedos match DISR measurements, indicating that DISR and VIMS measurements are consistently calibrated. These values together with albedos at longer 1.9–5.0 μm wavelengths, not sampled by DISR, resemble a dark version of the spectrum of Ganymede’s icy leading hemisphere. The eight surface albedos of the landing site are consistent with, but not deterministic of, exposed water ice with dark impurities.