Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.     

Seasonal variations of water system distribution and flow patterns in the southern sea area of Hokkaido,Japan

Hydrographic data and composite current velocity data (ADCP and GEK) were used to examine the seasonal variations of upper-ocean flow in the southern sea area of Hokkaido, which includes the “off-Doto” and “Hidaka Bay” areas separated by Cape Erimo. During the heating season (April–September), the outflow of the Tsugaru Warm Current (TWC) from the Tsugaru Strait first extends north-eastward, and then one branch of TWC turns to the west along the shelf slope after it approaches the Hidaka Shelf. The main flow of TWC evolves continuously, extending eastward as far as the area off Cape Erimo. In the late cooling season (January–March), part of the Oyashio enters Hidaka Bay along the shallower part of the shelf slope through the area off Cape Erimo, replacing almost all of the TWC water, and hence the TWC devolves. It is suggested that the bottom-controlled barotropic flow of the Oyashio, which may be caused by the small density difference between the Oyashio and the TWC waters and the southward migration of main front of TWC, permits the Oyashio water to intrude along the Hidaka shelf slope.     

Lateral continuity of basement seismic reflections in 15 Ma ultrafast-spreading crust at ODP Site 1256

The Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) initiated drilling at Site 1256D in the Guatemala Basin, about 1,000 km off the East Pacific Rise to penetrate plutonic rocks, anticipated to be relatively shallow in this region, formed at an ultra-fast spreading rate. IODP Expedition E312 successfully drilled into gabbros at ~1,150 m in basement. Multi-channel seismic traces show weak laterally coherent sub-basement reflections at borehole depths. Synthetic reflectivity seismograms were computed using a Ricker wavelet and impedance profiles from borehole sonic logs. These seismograms show significant sub-basement amplitude peaks. A zero-offset vertical seismic profile, shot on E312, was processed to investigate the authenticity of these reflections and their relationship to borehole geology. A dual scheme of the median filtering and F–K dip filtering was used. Tests with synthetic seismograms indicate the approach is effective at reasonable SNR levels. Downgoing energy is clearly identified but negligible upgoing energy is visible over random noise. These results indicate that lava flows and igneous contacts in upper ocean crust have significant topography on lateral scales less than the Fresnel Zone (~300 m) due to igneous and tectonic processes.     

Environmental Geochemistry and Acid Mine Drainage Evaluation of an Abandoned Coal Waste Pile at the Alborz-Sharghi Coal Washing Plant,NE Iran

In this paper, an abandoned waste coal pile, which is resulted from Alborz-Sharghi coal washing plant, NE of Iran was mineralogically and geochemically characterized to evaluate pyrite oxidation, acid mine drainage (AMD) generation, and trace element mobility. After digging ten trenches and vertical sampling, a quantitative method including the atomic absorption test, and the quality-based methods including optical study were carried out for determination of pyrite fractions in the waste pile. The geochemical results revealed that the fraction of remaining pyrite increased with depth, indicating that pyrite oxidation is limited to the shallower depths of the pile which were confirmed by variations of sulfate, pH, EC, and carbonate with depth of the pile. To evaluate the trend of trace elements and mineralogical constituents of the waste particles, the samples were analyzed by using XRD, ICP-MS, and ICP-OES methods. The results showed the secondary and neutralizing minerals comprising gypsum have been formed below the oxidation zone. Besides, positive values of net neutralization potential indicated that AMD generation has not taken in the waste pile. In addition, variations of trace elements with depth reveal that Pb and Zn exhibited increasing trends from pile surface toward the bottom sampling trenches while another of them such as Cu and Ni had decreasing trends with increasing depth of the waste pile.     

东南极格罗夫山变基性岩初步研究

东南极格罗夫山存在一套经历了峰期麻粒岩相变质作用的镁铁质麻粒岩和斜长角闪岩。对含石榴石的镁铁质麻粒岩的详细研究则显示了近等温降压 (ITD)的顺时针PT演化轨迹 ,与拉斯曼丘陵有相似的演化历史。岩石的主量元素组成和玄武岩一致 ,并且具有拉斑玄武岩演化趋势。进一步的地球化学研究表明 ,这套玄武岩为洋岛型玄武岩 (OIB)和洋中脊型玄武岩(MORB)的组合。OIB型具有大体类似的地球化学性质 ,它们均富集Ti(TiO2 =2 .68% )、REE( =2 0 2 μg/g)、LREE[(La/Yb) N=4.8]、Ti/Y( =343)、Zr/Y( =3.1 ) ,具洋岛玄武岩的特征 ,推测岩浆来源于富集地幔源区 (EM)。而MORB型以低Ti (TiO2 =1 .1 %— 1 .31 % ) ,明显低于OIB的P的含量 (P2 O5=0 .1 %— 0 .2 % ) ,低REE ( 4 7— 93μg/g)、LREE/HREE( 2 .2 7— 2 .5 4 )、(La/Yb) N( =1 .30— 1 .62 )为特征 ,具洋中脊玄武岩的特征。MORB和OIB组合的出现说明在泛非期该区可能存在过洋盆。     

Conductivity model for pyrite-bearing laminated and dispersed shaly sands based on a differential equation and the generalized Archie equation

The conductance of pyrite-bearing laminated and dispersed shaly sands is not well understood and resistivity models for pyrite-bearing shaly sands are nonexistent. Thus, we first synthesize clean pyrite-matrix samples, and quartz-matrix samples with variable laminated shale, dispersed shale, and pyrite content and then perform petrophysics experiments to assess the effect of pyrite content on the conductivity of pyrite-bearing shaly sands. Second, based on the differences in conductivity and conduction pathways and geometries because of the variable composition of the pyrite-bearing laminated and dispersed shaly sands, we divide the shaly sands into their components, i.e., laminated shale, quartz grains, pyrite grains, hydrocarbon, dispersed shale, microscopic capillary water, and mobile water. A generalized resistivity model is proposed to describe the conductivity of pyrite-bearing laminated and dispersed shaly sands, based on the combined conductivity differential equation and generalized Archie equation. In the generalized resistivity model, the conductivity differential equation is used to describe the conductivity of dispersed inclusions in a host, whereas the generalized Archie equation is used to describe the conductivity of two conducting phases. Moreover, parallel conductance theory is used to describe the conductivity of dispersed shaly sands and laminated shale. Theoretical analysis suggests that the proposed model satisfies the physical constraints and the model and experimental results agree. The resistivity and resistivity index of shaly sands decrease with increasing conductivity and pyrite. Finally, the accuracy of the resistivity model is assessed based on experimental data from 46 synthetic core samples with different oil saturation. The model can describe the conductivity of clean pyrite-matrix samples, and quartz-matrix samples with different volumes of laminated shale, dispersed shale, and pyrite. An accurate saturation model of pyrite-bearing laminated and dispersed shaly sands is thus obtained and the log data interpretation in complex shaly sands can improve with the proposed model.     

基于社会属性的北京城市居民居住环境安全性评价

以北京市城八区和外城五个有代表性的地区为调查研究对象,以2005年的大规模调查问卷为基础数据,运用数理统计和GIS分析手段对北京城市居民自身居住环境安全性的评价做出分析.结果显示,北京市居民对自身居住环境安全性总体较为满意,但不同类型人群对居住环境安全性的评价差别明显,其中高知青年和富裕人群的满意度最高,而贫困老年人群满意度最差.从空间差异来看,内城和城北是安全性评价较好的地区,外城和城南地区评价较差,城市东西方向上的评价值无明显空间差别.     

A 3D multi-threshold,region-growing algorithm for identifying dust storm features from model simulations

Dust storms cause significant damage to health, property, and the environment worldwide every year. To help mitigate the damage, dust forecast models simulate and predict upcoming dust events, providing valuable information to scientists, decision makers, and the public. These simulation outputs are in four-dimensions (i.e., latitude, longitude, elevation, and time) and represent spatially heterogeneous dust storm features and their evolution over space and time. This research investigates and proposes an automatic multi-threshold, region-growing-based algorithm to identify critical dust storm features from 3D dust storm simulations. A multi-threshold scheme is defined for the identification of dust storm features with different dust concentrations. Based on the multi-thresholds, dust storm features are iteratively identified by developing a region-growing algorithm that splits a clustered dust storm feature into multiple sub-features. The proposed approach is compared with three commonly used methods in image processing and thunderstorm identification. The proposed approach outperforms the other three methods in sensitivity and quantitative/qualitative accuracy. This research approach may also be slightly adjusted to identify critical 3D features from simulation outputs for other severe weather and geographical phenomena.     

厄尔尼诺与亚洲季风对港澳地区降雨影响

分析研究了香港1853～1997年（145年）、澳门1901～1997年（97年）的月和年降雨量的一些特征。主要结论是：（1）香港、澳门年降雨量存在准2～6年的周期振荡，澳门年降雨量有很强的长期趋势，香港年降雨量无明显趋势；（2）香港、澳门年内雨量的峰值出现在西南季风期（6月和8月），而谷值在东北季风期（12月）；（3）EI Nino事件年，香港、澳门年降雨量距平百分率多为正，降雨偏多。在La Nila事件年，香港、澳门年降雨量距平百分率多为负，降雨偏少。