拉萨河冬季径流对气候变暖和冻土退化的响应

20世纪90年代以来,拉萨河流域的气温经历了10年升高0.54 ^oC的气候变暖,这期间以秋冬季升温为主。在近40年 (1963~2004年) 气候和28年 (1976~2004年) 月径流数据的基础上,研究了具有多年冻土的高海拔拉萨河流域的冻土和水文响应。结果表明,冬季径流对11~2月气温升高具有显著响应,在12~2月份增加了16%,其中2月份增加22%。水热相关分析表明,10~11月地表温度升高0.8~0.9 ^oC导致冬季河流水量增多,介于0.9~1.5m深度的季节冻土深度和温度变化导致了径流量变化的响应。20世纪90年代的气候变暖使得多年冻土区的季节冻土深度萎缩了大约14cm,冻土区的冬季径流水文响应比气温更快、更显著。但冻土积雪观测的不足使冬季水文变化具有不确定性。     

自然地理学创新发展与展望

自然地理学自中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所建立以来一直是立所的核心学科,长期以服务国家重大需求为使命,在综合自然地理、气候、地貌、水文、土壤地理、生物地理、化学地理等各学科领域取得一批重要科技成果和进展,奠定了自然地理各分支学科在国内外的优势,为国家科技创新、区域经济社会可持续发展做出了重要贡献。本文回顾了中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所自然地理学的创新发展历程,总结了自然地理学取得的学术成就与标志性进展,并展望了中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所自然地理学未来发展,提出以陆地表层要素—过程交互作用机制,陆地表层格局动态研究,陆地表层系统过程的综合集成与模拟,陆地表层系统有序人类活动的可持续范式和调控机制为核心的发展战略。     

GF-2支持下的干旱区稀疏植被区植被覆盖度估算

现有像元二分模型MODIS植被覆盖度模型因其形式简单、适用性较强的特点被广泛应用于区域植被覆盖度（FVC）的估算。然而,研究表明在沙漠和低植被覆盖的西部干旱区,从250 m的影像上很难精准地获取NDVI_veg（全植被覆盖植被指数）和NDVI_soil（全裸土区植被指数）参数。利用常用的直方图累计法获取模型所需参数NDVI_veg和NDVI_soil,估算结果存在普遍高估现象。为此,本文首先引入同期获取的GF-2号卫星数据,从GF-2号影像上提取植被覆盖像元;然后,利用Pixel Aggregate方法重采样至250 m分辨率,获取250 m空间分辨率下纯植被和纯裸土像元;最后,将纯植被和纯裸土像元各自空间位置相对应的MODIS NDVI数据最大值作为模型所需NDVI_veg和NDVI_soil参数,实现研究区内植被覆盖度的估算。试验通过与线性回归法、多项式回归法和直方图累计像元二分模型法估算结果进行精度对比,结果表明：利用GF-2影像辅助的像元二分模型,精准地获取了低植被覆盖区NDVI_veg和NDVI_soil模型参数,提高了干旱区植被覆盖度的估算精度,并有效地抑制了受稀疏植被影响NDVI在干旱区普遍偏高问题导致的FVC高估的现象。     

中国物理海洋学研究70年:发展历程、学术成就概览

本文概略评述新中国成立70年来物理海洋学各分支研究领域的发展历程和若干学术成就。中国物理海洋学研究起步于海浪、潮汐、近海环流与水团,以及以风暴潮为主的海洋气象灾害的研究。随着国力的增强,研究领域不断拓展,涌现了大量具有广泛影响力的研究成果,其中包括:提出了被国际广泛采用的“普遍风浪谱”和“涌浪谱”,发展了第三代海浪数值模式;提出了“准调和分析方法”和“潮汐潮流永久预报”等潮汐潮流的分析和预报方法;发现并命名了“棉兰老潜流”,揭示了东海黑潮的多核结构及其多尺度变异机理等,系统描述了太平洋西边界流系;提出了印度尼西亚贯穿流的南海分支(或称南海贯穿流);不断完善了中国近海陆架环流系统,在南海环流、黑潮及其分支、台湾暖流、闽浙沿岸流、黄海冷水团环流、黄海暖流、渤海环流,以及陆架波方面均取得了深刻的认识;从大气桥和海洋桥两个方面对太平洋–印度洋–大西洋洋际相互作用进行了系统的总结;发展了浅海水团的研究方法,基本摸清了中国近海水团的分布和消长特征与机制,在大洋和极地水团分布及运动研究方面也做出了重要贡献;阐明了南海中尺度涡的宏观特征和生成机制,揭示了中尺度涡的三维结构,定量评估了其全球物质与能量输运能力;基本摸清了中国近海海洋锋的空间分布和季节变化特征,提出了地形、正压不稳定和斜压不稳定等锋面动力学机制;构建了“南海内波潜标观测网”,实现了对内波生成–演变–消亡全过程机理的系统认识;发展了湍流的剪切不稳定理论,提出了海流“边缘不稳定”的概念,开发了海洋湍流模式,提出了湍流混合参数化的新方法等;在海洋内部混合机制和能量来源方面取得了新的认识,并阐述了混合对海洋深层环流、营养物质输运等过程的影响;研发了全球浪–潮–流耦合模式,推出一系列海洋与气候模式;发展了可同化主要海洋观测数据的海洋数据同化系统和用于ENSO预报的耦合同化系统;建立了达到国际水准的非地转(水槽/水池)和地转(旋转平台)物理模 型实验平台;发展了ENSO预报的误差分析方法,建立了海洋和气候系统年代际变化的理论体系,揭示了中深层海洋对全球气候变化的响应;初步建成了中国近海海洋观测网;持续开展南北极调查研究;建立了台风、风暴潮、巨浪和海啸的业务化预报系统,为中国气象减灾提供保障;突破了国外的海洋技术封锁,研发了万米水深的深水水听器和海洋光学特性系列测量仪器;建立了溢油、危险化学品漂移扩散等预测模型,为伴随海洋资源开发所带来的风险事故的应急处理和预警预报提供科学支撑。文中引用的大量学术成果文献(每位第一作者优选不超过3篇)显示,经过70年的发展,中国物理海洋学研究培养了一支实力雄厚的科研队伍,这是最宝贵的成果。这支队伍必将成为中国物理海洋学研究攀登新高峰的主力军。     

我国农村饮水安全问题探讨与对策

根据《我国饮水安全与北方缺水地区农业水资源高效利用战略研究》及《全国农村饮水安全现状调查评估》中的调查资料,统计分析了我国农村饮水不安全人口总体分布特征及 不同类型的空间分布特点。按照中部、东部和西部划分,饮水不安全人口在数量上中部多东部少,中部为1.4 亿人,东部为0.7 亿人;在饮水不安全人口占农村总人口比例上,西部多东部少,西部为40%,东部为27%。饮用高氟、苦咸水、污染地表水、污染地下水以及水量缺乏等不同类型的饮水不安全人口分布特点各不相同,高氟水主要在华北地区,在天津饮用高 氟水人口占不安全人口的70%;饮用污染地表水主要分布在淮河以南、青海西藏以东大部分区域。进一步分析讨论了不同饮水安全问题(高氟、高砷、污染水、水量缺乏等) 的成因及影响农村饮水安全的主要因素,最后提出严格防治点源污染、面源污染,加强水源地保护,加 强雨水集蓄利用以及制定应急机制和预案等一系列解决农村饮水安全问题、保障饮水安全的 对策和措施。     

Investigation into the daily precipitation variability in the Yangtze River Delta,China

In this article, by using the daily precipitation data measured at 58 meteorological stations, spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation including zero rainfall values (called “precipitation”) and without zero rainfall values (called “rain”) and four precipitation extrema (P₀, P₂₀, P₅₀, and P₁₀₀ representing the daily precipitation with the magnitude smaller than 0.1 mm, bigger than 20 mm, 50 mm, and 100 mm per day, respectively) in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) during 1958–2007 were analyzed, and the effects of urbanization were further investigated. Results indicate that (i) differing from the downward trends in 1958–1985, daily precipitation and rain in 1986–2007 show slowly downward trends in the mid YRD but show upward trends in the northern and southern YRD. (ii) Spatial and temporal variability of the rain is more complex than daily precipitation. Both of them become smaller but show more obvious fluctuations in 1986–2007. (iii) Urbanizations cause not only the urban rainfall island problem but also more obvious fluctuations of rain intensity in the mid YRD, reflecting more uncertainty of daily precipitation variability. (iv) Urbanizations have little effects on the variability of P₀ and P₁₀₀ but cause notable increases of P₂₀ and P₅₀. (v) The spatial variability of daily precipitation and precipitation extrema in 1958–1985 clearly shows a breakpoint at 30°20′N latitude, but the breakpoint disappears afterward because of the effects of urbanization. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Discrete wavelet‐based trend identification in hydrologic time series

Trend identification is a substantial issue in hydrologic series analysis, but it is also a difficult task in practice due to the confusing concept of trend and disadvantages of methods. In this article, an improved definition of trend was given as follows: ‘a trend is the deterministic component in the analysed data and corresponds to the biggest temporal scale on the condition of giving the concerned temporal scale’. It emphasizes the intrinsic and deterministic properties of trend, can clearly distinguish trend from periodicities and points out the prerequisite of the concerned temporal scale only by giving which the trend has its specific meaning. Correspondingly, the discrete wavelet‐based method for trend identification was improved. Differing from those methods used presently, the improved method is to identify trend by comparing the energy difference between hydrologic data and noise, and it can simultaneously separate periodicities and noise. Furthermore, the improved method can quantitatively estimate the statistical significance of the identified trend by using proper confidence interval. Analyses of both synthetic and observed series indicated the identical power of the improved method as the Mann–Kendall test in assessing the statistical significance of the trend in hydrologic data, and by using the former, the identified trend can adaptively reflect the nonlinear and nonstationary variability of hydrologic data. Besides, the results also showed the influences of three key factors (wavelet choice, decomposition level choice and noise content) on discrete wavelet‐based trend identification; hence, they should be carefully considered in practice. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

人工引发雷电试验及其特征的初步分析

1989年夏季，我们在甘肃永登黑林子地区进行了用拖带接地金属细丝的火箭引发雷电的试验，获得了3次成功。本文分析了这3次引发雷电的放电特征。结果表明，放电是在雷暴云下部正电荷的作用下上行负流光的激发和传播过程，雷电人工引发时的地面电场为6－8kV/m。由一简单物理模式粗略地定量估算出了放电参数：中和电荷量约为12－5．3C,电荷 中心离地高度1．3－2．5km，和甘肃地区雷暴云下部正电荷中心高度范围一致。     

雷暴对流起电机制理论分析

本文用一维分层模式理论分析了地面降雨、尖端放电、对流运动以及云外电导率变化对雷暴电结构的影响。分析指出,云内对流强度明显地影响着雷暴电结构,强烈的地面降雨和尖端放电可使地面电场强度显著减小,甚至极性翻转。闪电和云顶附近的下沉气流是维持雷暴向上提供充电电流的重要条件。在雷暴中,对流起电机制是一个不可忽略的重要过程。     

Tracing infiltration and recharge using stable isotope in Taihang Mt., North China

The groundwater in headwater region is an important recharge source for the adjacent mountain-front plain. In order to reveal the relationship among precipitation, soil water and groundwater, from June to September in 2004, stable isotopes (deuterium and oxygen-18) in precipitation and soil waters at the depths of 10, 20, 30, 50, 70, 90, and 110 cm were analyzed at two sites covered by black locust (Robinia Pseudoacia L.) (Site A) and grass predominated by Themeda triandra (T. japonica (Willd.) Tanaka) and Bothriochloa ischaemum (B. ischaemum (L.) Keng) (Site B) in an experimental catchment at Taihang Mt., North China, respectively. The δ¹⁸O of precipitation in daily rain events shows large variations (−13.3 to −4.3‰) with a mean of 8.1‰. The δ¹⁸O and δ D of soil waters along profiles in two sites suggest that the influence of canopy cover was just up to 10 cm in top soil water. The soil water moved over the zero flux plane at 70 cm in-depth is expected to escape the evaporative effect at the end of September in both sites. The results show that the stable isotope, instead of tritium as tradition, can be used to trace the soil water behaviors based on the movement of isotopic peak along the vertical profiles in this semi-arid and semi-humid mountainous region. The infiltration depths of soil water in Taihang Mt. are 12 and 10 mm/day from June to September in 2004 in Site A and Site B, respectively. Tracing by stable isotope, recharge fluxes of soil water to local groundwater are of 3.8 and 3.2 mm/day in Site A and Site B, respectively. The results provide desirable information for assessment of local groundwater resources. An erratum to this article can be found at