区域群发性滑坡灾害概率预报系统

根据覆盖浙江全部陆地区域数年降雨量数据,在同时期内有明确日期、位置记录的609处滑坡(泥石流)灾害数据,通过对地质、土壤、土地利用类型、人文等资料的综合分析,研制了集GIS与ANN于一体的区域群发性滑坡灾害概率预报系统(LAPS)。该系统可以通过宽带网络与气象、水文观测等有关部门相连接,在雨季根据雨量观测站的实时观测数据和降雨预报,对全省区域范围内滑坡灾害发生概率进行快速评价,实现对灾害发生的空间范围、强度及其分布概率的实时预警预报,具有维护方便、操作简单、可视化强等特点,可以作为其它滑坡易发地区的预报系统原型。     

成矿物质来源的定量判别方法的探讨

热液矿床的成矿物质往往具有多来源性。因此，定量判别不同来源矿质的量比关系，从而正确地识别矿床的主要成矿物质来源和成因机制，是现代矿床学研究的关键性问题之一。本文给出了三元混合模式的同位素－成矿元素的比值型判别方法，并给出了金银和萤石矿床成矿物原来源的定量判别应用实例。     

Method for real-time self-calibrating GLONASS code inter-frequency bias and improvements on single point positioning

Utilization of frequency-division multiple access (FDMA) leads to GLONASS pseudorange and carrier phase observations suffering from variable levels inter-frequency bias (IFB). The bias related with carrier phase can be absorbed by ambiguities. However, the unequal code inter-frequency bias (cIFB) will degrade the accuracy of pseudorange observations, which will affect positioning accuracy and convergence of precise point positioning (PPP) when including GLONASS satellites. Based on observations made on un-differenced (UD) ionospheric-free combinations, GLONASS cIFB parameters are estimated as a constant to achieve GLONASS cIFB real-time self-calibration on a single station. A total of 23 stations, with different manufacturing backgrounds, are used to analyze the characteristics of GLONASS cIFB and its relationship with variable receiver hardware. The results show that there is an obvious common trend in cIFBs estimated using broadcast ephemeris for all of the different manufacturers, and there are unequal GLONASS inter-satellite cIFB that match brand manufacture. In addition, a particularly good consistency is found between self-calibrated receiver-dependent GLONASS cIFB and the IFB products of the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ). Via a comparative experiment, it is also found that the algorithm of cIFB real-time self-calibration not only corrects receiver-dependent cIFB, but can moreover eliminate satellite-dependent cIFB, providing more stable results and further improving global navigation satellite system (GNSS) point positioning accuracy. The root mean square (RMS) improvements of single GLONASS standard point positioning (SPP) reach up to 54.18 and 53.80% in horizontal and vertical direction, respectively. The study’s GLONASS cIFB self-estimation can realize good self-consistency between cIFB and stations, working to further promote convergence efficiency relative to GPS?+?GLONASS PPP. An average improvement percentage of 19.03% is observed, realizing a near-consistent accuracy with GPS?+?GLONASS fusion PPP.     

胜利滩海石油开发工程建设模式的探讨

系统介绍了胜利滩海油田勘探开发基本情况、含油面积、生产层位、控制储量及所处的地理位置、环境条件和特点,为实现滩海边际油田的最佳经济效益,分析对比了人工岛方案和常规海洋石油开发工程建设模式基础,确立了“安全、简易、经济、高效、重视环保”工程建设指导思想,逐步探索出适应胜利滩海石油开发工程的建设模式。着重阐述了胜利滩海石油工程建设在不同发展阶段所产生的各种工程建设模式的优缺点、适应性、使用价值及其演变     

顶底角钢连接节点的低周疲劳性能分析

本文对采用顶底角钢连接的半刚性钢梁柱连接节点进行了精细的三维非线性有限元分析,在与实验数据对比的基础上,对影响该连接性能的主要参数如角钢厚度、柱翼缘连接螺栓与梁翼缘间的距离等进行了分析,得到了其弯矩-转角曲线。     

Mapping three-dimensional co-seismic surface deformations associated with the 2015 M_W7.2 Murghab earthquake based on InSAR and characteristics of crustal strain

Three-dimensional(3 D) co-seismic surface deformations are of great importance to interpret the characteristics of coseismic deformations and to understand the geometries and dynamics of seismogenic faults. In this paper, we propose a method for mapping 3 D co-seismic deformations based on InSAR observations and crustal strain characteristics. In addition, the search strategy of correlation points is optimized by adaptive correlation distance, which greatly improves the applicability of the proposed method in restoring deformations in decorrelation areas. Results of the simulation experiment reveal that the proposed method is superior to conventional methods in both the accuracy and completeness. The proposed method is then applied to map the 3 D co-seismic surface deformations associated with the 2015 MW7.2 Murghab earthquake using ascending and descending ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 images. The results show that the seismogenic fault is the Sarez-Karakul fault(SKF), which is dominated by NE-SW strike slips with an almost vertical dip angle. The north section and the south segment near the epicentre have obvious subsidence along with a southwestward motion in the northwest wall, and the southeast wall has northeast movement and surface uplift trend along the fault zone. The strain field of the earthquake is also obtained by the proposed method. It is found that the crustal block of the seismic area is obviously affected by dilatation and shear forces, which is in good agreement with the movement character of the sinistral slip.     

中小学校疏散演练人员疏散模型研究

本文以元胞自动机模型理论为指导,以人员疏散时间最短为目标,构建中小学校疏散演练人员疏散模型。本文从开展地震应急疏散模型研究出发,为地震应急演练疏散训练软件提供核心算法。通过对空间基础构建元素及搭建方法的分析研究,设计完成疏散虚拟场景的建模方法。最后开展人员疏散算法构建方式的研究,并结合应急疏散演练人员行为规范的研究成果,完成疏散模型的总体设计,达到为应急演练疏散软件提供人员疏散演化模型以及为人员疏散过程合理性评判提供依据的目的。     

分形布朗运动与地球化学测量——地壳中元素含量空间分布的定量表征

地球化学面的形态是依赖于采样网格(采样密度)大小变化而不确定的。对于一维情况,元素含量分布曲线长度L与采样间距r之间的关系服从L(r)=Cr~(1-1/H),D=1/H。对于地壳上任一给定区域,沿某一测线进行地球化学测量的任一元素含量数据,由上式确定的D值和H值,对于沿测线方向该元素的含量分布在统计的意义上将是确定的。对浙江省水系沉积物测量数据的统计结果表明,Au、Ag、Cu、Pb、Zn、Mo、Co、Ni 8种元素的含量变化在1～150km尺度范围内遵循分形分布,D=1.03～1.62,H=0.62～0.97。这表明地壳中元素含量在空间上随采样间距的变化可能是一个完全等价于分形布朗运动的随机函数,在1～150km这个尺度范围内,元素含量分布模式具有自相似性和长程相关性。这个结果为“国际地球化学填图”项目(IGCP259)提出的160km×160km采样网格尺度提供了一种理论的支持。     

全球变化对海洋渔业的影响及对策

人类行为引发的全球性捕捞过度、水体富营养化、气候温暖化和臭氧层被破坏等都地世界渔业产生极大的影响,而捕捞过度使鱼群抵御环境变化的能力降低,并直接破坏渔业资源,从而放大全球变化对海洋渔业的影响。水体富化造成的有害赤潮及鱼虾病害频发、往往给业,尤其是增养殖渔业带来巨大经济损失,温暖化引起的海水升温和盐度改变,不仅直接影响海洋生物的生理、繁殖及时空分布,而且通过对海平面、上升流、厄尔尼诺现象,珊瑚礁、信     

水下开沟机的监测技术与应用

水下开沟机是海底管道、电（光）缆铺设施工中的重要作业装备,而水下监测技术和装置则是水下开沟机必不可少的重要组成部分。本文介绍水下施工作业对开沟机的监测要求着手,分析水下开沟机的基本监测方法与设备,探讨水下开沟机监测装置的配置原则,并结合对国外水下开沟机监测技术的发展应用回顾和评价,总结了我国目前在水下开沟机监测技术和装备研究开发方面的主要成果,以及在工程实践中的应用尝试与体会。