Examination of multi-perturbation methods for ensemble prediction of the MJO during boreal summer

The impact of initialization and perturbation methods on the ensemble prediction of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation was investigated using 20-year hindcast predictions of a coupled general circulation model. The three perturbation methods used in the present study are the lagged-averaged forecast (LAF) method, the breeding method, and the empirical singular vector (ESV) method. Hindcast experiments were performed with a prediction interval of 10 days for extended boreal summer (May–October) seasons over a 20 year period. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) eigenvectors of the initial perturbations depend on the individual perturbation method used. The leading EOF eigenvectors of the LAF perturbations exhibit large variances in the extratropics. Bred vectors with a breeding interval of 3 days represent the local unstable mode moving northward and eastward over the Indian and western Pacific region, and the leading EOF modes of the ESV perturbations represent planetary-scale eastward moving perturbations over the tropics. By combining the three perturbation methods, a multi-perturbation (MP) ensemble prediction system for the intraseasonal time scale was constructed, and the effectiveness of the MP prediction system for the Madden and Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction was examined in the present study. The MJO prediction skills of the individual perturbation methods are all similar; however, the MP‐based prediction has a higher level of correlation skill for predicting the real-time multivariate MJO indices compared to those of the other individual perturbation methods. The predictability of the intraseasonal oscillation is sensitive to the MJO amplitude and to the location of the dominant convective anomaly in the initial state. The improvement in the skill of the MP prediction system is more effective during periods of weak MJO activity.     

Analysis of flow behavior in a landfill with cover soil of low hydraulic conductivity

 This paper presents the results of field tests of hydrologic parameters in a landfill and the results of numerical simulation to find the efficiency of the pumping method to reduce leachate levels in the landfill. The field hydraulic conductivity and storativity of waste and buried cover soils in the landfill are measured by pumping and slug tests. The hydrologic condition inside the landfill is first calibrated using the drawdown-time curve obtained from the pumping test, and the flow behavior of leachate during pumping in the landfill, when various layers of waste and buried cover soil exist, is analyzed through three-dimensional numerical simulation of flow. The results of the field investigation show that the buried cover soil of low hydraulic conductivity forms an impermeable layer preventing the downward flow of leachate and upward flow of landfill gas. The hydraulic conductivities of the pumping test and slug tests were quite close on the same order of magnitude. It was also possible to match the drawdown-time data of the field tests with those of the model using input data close to the hydrologic property obtained from the field tests. The numerical flow analysis showed that pumping was possible up to 120 tons/day for a single well without a drain, while the pumping rate could be increased to 300 tons/day for the same well with the drain. From the vertical section of the flow vector with a horizontal drain, the barrier role of buried cover soil is identified, which was proposed by examining the water contents of the disposed cover soil and waste in the field. Received: 15 May 1998 · Accepted: 4 January 1999