Simulated precipitation response to SST forcing and potential predictability in the region of the South Atlantic convergence zone

The sensitivity of the precipitation response in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) to sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is investigated by an inter-model comparison study of ensembles of multidecadal integrations of two atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs)—version 1 of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) model, and the NCAR community climate model (CCM3) version 3.6.6. Despite the different physical parameterizations, the two models consistently show an SST-forced signal located mainly over the oceanic portion of the SACZ. The signal has interannual-to-decadal timescales, and consists of a shift and strengthening of the SACZ toward anomalous warm waters. A potential predictability analysis reveals that the maximum predictable variance is about 50% of the total SACZ variance over the ocean, but the signal attenuates rapidly toward the South American continent. This result implies that the land portion of the SACZ is primarily dominated by the internal variability, thereby having a limited potential predictability at seasonal timescales.     

基于PixelGrid的标准时点核准影像单景几何纠正方法研究

地理国情普查是国务院部署的重大项目,其中,第一次全国地理国情普查标准时点核准工作于2015年正式启动。面对多源的卫星遥感数据,对于影响因素复杂区域很难实现影像的自动纠正,因而,本文主要介绍了利用PixelGrid软件进行单景影像几何纠正的方法,为其他项目的困难区域影像处理提供参考。     

Some characteristics of ozone profiles above Hong Kong

Summary Analysis of ozonesonde data shows that in the lower troposphere above Hong Kong, there is a relative maximum with respect to height in all seasons except winter. In the upper troposphere, there is with respect to height a relative minimum in the seasonally averaged ozone mixing ratio in winter. Ozone mixing ratios in the upper troposphere in winter and spring can be significantly enhanced by stratospheric intrusions associated with the passage of cold fronts and upper cut-off lows.For Hong Kong, the seasonally averaged total ozone has the highest value in spring, and the lowest in winter. The seasonally averaged total tropospheric ozone also has the highest value in spring, but the lowest in summer. In a relative sense, total tropospheric ozone contributes most to the total ozone in spring and the least in summer.The phase of the total ozone anomaly above Hong Kong is influenced by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), with the positive anomaly associated with the easterly phase of QBO, and the negative anomaly the westerly phase.     

Simulation Study on High Energy Cosmic Electron Detection by Shower Image

Many projects have recently been carried out and proposed for observing high energy electrons since it is realized that cosmic ray electrons are very important when study-ing the dark matter particles and the acceleration mechanism of cosmic rays. An imaging calorimeter,BETS (Balloon-borne Electron Telescope with Scintillator fiber),has been de-veloped for this purpose. Using pattern analysis of the shower development,the electrons can be selected from those primary cosmic ray proton events with flux heights one-tenth that of the electrons. The Monte-Carlo simulation is indispensable for the instrument design,the sig-nal trigger and the data analysis. We present different shower simulation codes and compare the simulation results with the beam test and the flight data of BETS. We conclude that the code FLUKA2002 gives the most consistent results with the experimental data.     

A possible explanation for the electron/positron excess of ATIC/PAMELA

Results from PAMELA and ATIC indicate that the Kaluza-Klein type dark matter particles could be the annihilation source of the observed excess of electrons and positrons.Assuming the existence of a nearby black hole with 10000–100000 solar masses and a point source boost algorithm,we apply the standard propagation model and find that the results fit the data well.     

豫西汝阳群、洛峪群碎屑锆石年代学特征及其地质意义

华北克拉通南缘"豫陕裂陷槽"发育大量中—新元古代地层,其中汝阳群和洛峪群分布于渑池—确山地层小区,其形成时代一直存有争议.本文针对汝阳群和洛峪群沉积岩进行了系统的碎屑锆石年代学研究工作,结合地层发育和岩石组合分析,为建立华北克拉通南缘中—新元古代地层框架提供依据.根据云梦山组下部碎屑锆石中获得年轻锆石年龄平均值1723...     

黄河兰州段2018年汛期沉积物的磁学特征研究: 对古洪水重建的启示

现代洪水沉积物的沉积学特征研究是开展古洪水重建的一项基础工作.2018年黄河汛期洪水沉积物在兰州体育公园形成了一道天然堤.对该天然堤剖面的岩石磁学研究显示：沉积物中的磁性矿物既有磁铁矿,又有赤铁矿/针铁矿.磁化率、饱和等温剩磁、非磁滞剩磁、S-ratio和L-ratio等参数在剖面上没有明显变化,指示2018年洪水沉积物源区、磁性矿物的种类和含量变化不显著.剖面下部（66~110 cm）沉积物的磁化率各向异性（AMS）椭球最大轴偏角集中分布（K₁-Dec=22.8°±10.3°）,上部（0~64 cm）沉积物的磁化率最大轴偏角在上半平面内随机分布;下部沉积物的磁性矿物粒度指标（χ_ARM/χ和χ_ARM/SIRM）和天然剩磁（NRM）强度低于上部;指示洪水沉积物的下部和上部分别形成于2018年黄河二号和三号洪水期间.由于二号洪水流量及水位陡升陡降、持续时间短,三号洪水水位升降相对缓慢、持续时间长;造成了两次洪水沉积物的AMS特征、χ_ARM/χ、χ_ARM/SIRM以及NRM强度差异.本研究揭示洪水沉积物的磁学参数能够灵敏地响应不同水动力条件和持续时间的洪水期次,从而具有高分辨率区分洪水事件的潜力.

     

库车坳陷古近系层序和沉积体系发育特征

以露头和测井资料为基础,建立了库车坳陷古近系层序地层格架,划分出5个三级层序和2 4个四级层序。四级层序内识别出冲积扇/扇三角洲、辫状河、曲流河、辫状河三角洲、下切水道、滨浅湖、干盐湖、泻湖-海湾、半深湖浊流-重力流等多种沉积体系。通过层序-体系域对比,将区内的三级层序划分为6种沉积构成类型,总结了每种类型在前陆盆地中的发育和分布特征。     

Including spatial distribution in a data‐driven rainfall‐runoff model to improve reservoir inflow forecasting in Taiwan

Multi‐step ahead inflow forecasting has a critical role to play in reservoir operation and management in Taiwan during typhoons as statutory legislation requires a minimum of 3‐h warning to be issued before any reservoir releases are made. However, the complex spatial and temporal heterogeneity of typhoon rainfall, coupled with a remote and mountainous physiographic context, makes the development of real‐time rainfall‐runoff models that can accurately predict reservoir inflow several hours ahead of time challenging. Consequently, there is an urgent, operational requirement for models that can enhance reservoir inflow prediction at forecast horizons of more than 3 h. In this paper, we develop a novel semi‐distributed, data‐driven, rainfall‐runoff model for the Shihmen catchment, north Taiwan. A suite of Adaptive Network‐based Fuzzy Inference System solutions is created using various combinations of autoregressive, spatially lumped radar and point‐based rain gauge predictors. Different levels of spatially aggregated radar‐derived rainfall data are used to generate 4, 8 and 12 sub‐catchment input drivers. In general, the semi‐distributed radar rainfall models outperform their less complex counterparts in predictions of reservoir inflow at lead times greater than 3 h. Performance is found to be optimal when spatial aggregation is restricted to four sub‐catchments, with up to 30% improvements in the performance over lumped and point‐based models being evident at 5‐h lead times. The potential benefits of applying semi‐distributed, data‐driven models in reservoir inflow modelling specifically, and hydrological modelling more generally, are thus demonstrated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.