Comparison of neural network and McNish and Lincoln methods for the prediction of the smoothed sunspot index

In this paper we propose a comparison between two methods for the problem of long-term prediction of the smoothed sunspot index. These two methods are first the classical method of McNish and Lincoln (as improved by Stewart and Ostrow), and second a neural network method. The results of these two methods are compared in two periods, during the ascending and the declining phases of the current cycle 22 (1986–1996). The predictions with neural networks are much better than with the McNish and Lincoln method for the atypical ascending phase of cycle 22. During the second period the predictions are very similar, and in agreement with observations, when the McNish and Lincoln method is based on the data of declining phases of the cycles.     

Petrology and geochemistry of the 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption,central Iceland: compositional and mineralogical characteristics,temporal variability and magma storage

The 2014–2015 Holuhraun fissure eruption provided a rare opportunity to study in detail the magmatic processes and magma plumbing system dynamics during a 6-month-long, moderate- to large-volume basaltic fissure eruption. In this contribution, we present a comprehensive dataset, including major and trace elements of whole-rock and glassy tephra samples, mineral chemistry, and radiogenic and oxygen isotope analyses from an extensive set of samples (n?=?62) that were collected systematically in several field campaigns throughout the entire eruptive period. We also present the first detailed chemical and isotopic characterization of magmatic sulfides from Iceland. In conjunction with a unique set of geophysical data, our approach provides a detailed temporal and spatial resolution of magmatic processes before and during this eruption. The 2014–2015 Holuhraun magma is compositionally indistinguishable from recent basalts erupted from the Bárðarbunga volcanic system, consistent with seismic observations for magma ascent close to the Bárðarbunga central volcano, followed by dyke propagation to the Holuhraun eruption site. Whole-rock elemental and isotopic compositions are remarkably constant throughout the eruption. Moreover, the inferred depth of the magma reservoir tapped during the eruption is consistently 8?±?5 km, in agreement with geodetic observations and melt inclusion entrapment pressures, but inconsistent with vertically extensive multi-tiered magma storage prior to eruption. The near constancy in the chemical and isotopic composition of the lava is consistent with the efficient homogenization of mantle-derived compositional variability. In contrast, occurrence of different mineral populations, including sulfide globules, which display significant compositional variability, requires a more complex earlier magmatic history. This may include sampling of heterogeneous mantle melts that mixed, crystallized and finally homogenized at mid- to lower-crustal conditions.     

Modal abundances of pyroxene,olivine, and mesostasis in nakhlites: Heterogeneity,variation, and implications for nakhlite emplacement

Nakhlites, clinopyroxenite meteorites from Mars, share common crystallization and ejection ages, suggesting that they might have been ejected from the same place on Mars by the same ejection event (impact) and are different samples of the same thick volcanic flow unit or shallow sill. Mean modal abundances and abundance ranges of pyroxene, olivine, and mesostasis vary widely among different thin‐sections of an individual nakhlite. Lithologic heterogeneity is the main factor contributing to the observed modal‐abundance variations measured in thin‐sections prepared from different fragments of the same stone. Two groups of nakhlites are distinguished from one another by which major constituent varies the least and the abundance of that constituent. The group consisting of Nakhla, Lafayette, Governador Valadares, and the Yamato nakhlite pairing group is characterized by low modal mesostasis and pyroxene‐olivine covariance, whereas the group consisting of the Miller Range nakhlite pairing group and Northwest Africa 5790 is characterized by low modal olivine and pyroxene‐mesostasis covariance. These two groups sample the slowest‐cooled interior portion and the chilled margin, respectively, of the nakhlite emplacement body as presently understood, and appear to be also related to recently proposed nakhlite groups independently established using compositional rather than petrographic observations. Phenocryst modal abundances vary with inferred depth in the nakhlite igneous body in a manner consistent with solidification of the nakhlite stack from dynamically sorted phenocryst‐rich magmatic crystal‐liquid mush.     

Multiple‐station neural network for modelling tidal currents across Shinnecock inlet,USA

This paper presents the development of a multiple‐station neural network for predicting tidal currents across a coastal inlet. Unlike traditional hydrodynamic models, the neural network model does not need inputs of coastal topography and bathymetry, grids, surface and bottom frictions, and turbulent eddy viscosity. Without solving hydrodynamic equations, the neural network model applies an interconnected neural network to correlate the inputs of boundary forcing of water levels at a remote station to the outputs of tidal currents at multiple stations across a local coastal inlet. Coefficients in the neural network model are trained using a continuous dataset consisting of inputs of water levels at a remote station and outputs of tidal currents at the inlet, and verified using another independent input and output dataset. Once the neural network model has been satisfactorily trained and verified, it can be used to predict tidal currents at a coastal inlet from the inputs of water levels at a remote station. For the case study at Shinnecock Inlet in the southern shore of New York, tidal currents at nine stations across the inlet were predicted by the neural network model using water level data located from a station about 70 km away from the inlet. A continuous dataset in May 2000 was used for the training, and another dataset in July 2000 was used for the verification of the neural network model. Comparing model predictions and observations indicates correlation coefficients range from 0·95 to 0·98, and the root‐mean‐square error ranges from 0·04 to 0·08 m s^?1 at the nine current locations across the inlet. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The rheology of olivine and spinel magnesium germanate (Mg2GeO4): TEM study of the defect microstructures

Synthetic polycrystals of α-Mg₂GeO₄ (with the olivine structure) and γ-Mg₂GeO₄ (with the spinel structure) deformed at high temperature and pressure in their respective stability fields were investigated by analytical transmission electron microscopy. Specimens with a mean grain size of 20–30 µm deform by dislocation glide and/or climb. The predominance of glide versus climb depends on stress and grain orientation. The defect microstructures of both polymorphs are very similar to those observed in their respective silicate analogues, α- and γ-(Mg,Fe)₂SiO₄, and, in the case of the spinel phase, very similar to those observed in magnesium aluminate spinels. These observations suggest that Mg₂GeO₄ is a good rheological analogue for the Earth’s upper mantle. A spinel specimen deformed under the same conditions of temperature and strain rate as an olivine specimen was approximately three times stronger than olivine. In specimens of both phases deformed at or above 1400 K, a thin amorphous film composed of Mg, Ge, and O was detected along some grain boundaries. Grains ≤10 µm diameter surrounded by a film of amorphous phase (>10 nm thick) exhibited low dislocation densities, and deformation appeared to have occurred by grain boundary sliding.