Resilience and brittleness in the ALERTA RIO system: a field study about the decision-making of forecasters

Natural disasters, particularly those triggered by heavy rainfall, may cause major damage and death. However, if an accurate early warning is issued, the damage can be mitigated. In Latin America and Brazil, characteristics of socioeconomic development often lead to a disorderly growth of cities and, consequently, occupation and irregular construction in risk areas. Therefore, forecasts of heavy rainfall, as well as preventative and mitigatory actions based on meteorological data/alerts, are essential to saving lives and minimizing material loss. An event that would have benefited from such actions is that which occurred in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011, when over 800 people lost their lives. This work describes the first research initiative on resilience engineering domain in systems to forecast heavy rains in Rio de Janeiro. The results indicate important sources of brittleness in the system that supports the work of meteorologists, mainly related to the technical and organizational framework, and suggests that the main source of resilience in dealing with critical situations is the tacit knowledge of experts.     

The Cabo Frio upwelling overrides geographical patterns in the population dynamics of the shrimp Artemesia longinaris Spence Bate, 1888 (Decapoda: Penaeidae)

Upwelling areas are among the most productive ecosystems on the planet, influencing the biology of marine organisms. This study investigated the population dynamics of the shrimp Artemesia longinaris in two regions in southeastern Brazil, one inside (Macaé—Rio de Janeiro State) and one outside (Ubatuba—State of São Paulo) the Cabo Frio upwelling area. The aim was to verify the influence of the upwelling phenomenon on the abundance, growth, longevity, size of sexual maturity, and reproductive period of the species. In total, 188,902 individuals were captured at Macaé and 3,461 at Ubatuba. Individuals captured at Macaé showed larger maximum size, higher longevity, and slower growth rate, besides reaching sexual maturity at larger sizes than at Ubatuba. Continuous reproduction was observed in both regions, with juvenile recruitment peaks in spring and summer. Local conditions observed at Macaé were influenced by the Cabo Frio upwelling zone, characterized by productive and cooler waters that are around 20°C during most of the year. The upwelling phenomenon is probably the main factor influencing the population parameters studied here, changing the geographic patterns previously observed for the variation of these parameters in A. longinaris.     

Application of SASHA to seismic hazard assessment for Portugal mainland

In the frame of the UPStrat-MAFA “Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources” project, seismic hazard has been assessed in Portugal in terms of macroseismic intensity. Assessment has been performed by using a probabilistic approach based on the statistical analysis of local seismic histories (i.e., the record of seismic effects at each locality) performed by a new version of the SASHA code (D’Amico and Albarello in Res Lett 79(5):663–671, 2008) on purpose modified to account for this specific area of study. Local seismic histories are reconstructed by considering documented effects or indirect estimates deduced from epicentral information or numerical simulations. All these pieces of evidence are combined taking into account relevant uncertainty and statistical completeness of information locally available. Distribution of expected maximum intensity (i.e., the maximum intensity characterized by a fixed exceedance probability for a exposure time of 50 years) has been obtained and compared with the one deduced from alternative approaches.     

Non-vacuum cosmological solutions of 5D variable mass theory of gravity

A class of non-vacuum expanding cosmological solutions of Wesson's 5D theory of gravity with variable rest mass is derived. The models are spatially homogeneous and isotropic and the source of gravitation is a pressureless fluid (dust) plus a cosmological constant term. The general and unified solution is found for the equations and some properties of different limiting cases are studied. Particularly, it is shown that for null cosmological constant the predicted age of the universe is smaller than the ones of the 4D FRW models.     

Assessing shallow landslide hazards using the TRIGRS and SHALSTAB models,Serra do Mar,Brazil

The hillslopes of the Serra do Mar, a system of escarpments and mountains that extend more than 1500 km along the southern and southeastern Brazilian coast, are regularly affected by heavy rainfall that generates widespread mass movements, causing large numbers of casualties and economic losses. This paper evaluates the efficiency of susceptibility mapping for shallow translational landslides in one basin in the Serra do Mar, using the physically based landslide susceptibility models SHALSTAB and TRIGRS. Two groups of scenarios were simulated using different geotechnical and hydrological soil parameters, and for each group of scenarios (A and B), three subgroups were created using soil thickness values of 1, 2, and 3 m. Simulation results were compared to the locations of 356 landslide scars from the 1985 event. The susceptibility maps for scenarios A1, A2, and A3 were similar between the models regarding the spatial distribution of susceptibility classes. Changes in soil cohesion and specific weight parameters caused changes in the area of predicted instability in the B scenarios. Both models were effective in predicting areas susceptible to shallow landslides through comparison of areas predicted to be unstable and locations of mapped landslides. Such models can be used to reduce costs or to define potentially unstable areas in regions like the Serra do Mar where field data are costly and difficult to obtain.     

Origins of high pH mineral waters from ultramafic rocks, Central Portugal

This paper reviews the geochemical, isotopic (²H, ¹⁸O, ¹³C, ³H and ¹⁴C) and numerical modelling approaches to evaluate possible geological sources of the high pH (11.5)/Na–Cl/Ca–OH mineral waters from the Cabeço de Vide region (Central-Portugal). Water–rock interaction studies have greatly contributed to a conceptual hydrogeological circulation model of the Cabeço de Vide mineral waters, which was corroborated by numerical modelling approaches. The local shallow groundwaters belong to the Mg–HCO₃ type, and are derived by interaction with the local serpentinized rocks. At depth, these type waters evolve into the high pH/Na–Cl/Ca–OH mineral waters of Cabeço de Vide spas, issuing from the intrusive contact between mafic/ultramafic rocks and an older carbonate sequence. The Cabeço de Vide mineral waters are supersaturated with respect to serpentine indicating that they may cause serpentinization. Magnesium silicate phases (brucite and serpentine) seem to control Mg concentrations in Cabeço de Vide mineral waters. Similar δ²H and δ¹⁸O suggest a common meteoric origin and that the Mg–HCO₃ type waters have evolved towards Cabeço de Vide mineral waters. The reaction path simulations show that the progressive evolution of the Ca–HCO₃ to Mg–HCO₃ waters can be attributed to the interaction of meteoric waters with serpentinites. The sequential dissolution at CO₂ (g) closed system conditions leads to the precipitation of calcite, magnesite, amorphous silica, chrysotile and brucite, indicating that the waters would be responsible for the serpentinization of fresh ultramafic rocks (dunites) present at depth. The apparent age of Cabeço de Vide mineral waters was determined as 2790 ± 40 a BP, on the basis of ¹⁴C and ¹³C values, which is in agreement with the ³H concentrations being below the detection limit.     

Geophysical methods applied to fault characterization and earthquake potential assessment in the Lower Tagus Valley, Portugal

The study region is located in the Lower Tagus Valley, central Portugal, and includes a large portion of the densely populated area of Lisbon. It is characterized by a moderate seismicity with a diffuse pattern, with historical earthquakes causing many casualties, serious damage and economic losses. Occurrence of earthquakes in the area indicates the presence of seismogenic structures at depth that are deficiently known due to a thick Cenozoic sedimentary cover. The hidden character of many of the faults in the Lower Tagus Valley requires the use of indirect methodologies for their study. This paper focuses on the application of high-resolution seismic reflection method for the detection of near-surface faulting on two major tectonic structures that are hidden under the recent alluvial cover of the Tagus Valley, and that have been recognized on deep oil-industry seismic reflection profiles and/or inferred from the surface geology. These are a WNW–ESE-trending fault zone located within the Lower Tagus Cenozoic basin, across the Tagus River estuary (Porto Alto fault), and a NNE–SSW-trending reverse fault zone that borders the Cenozoic Basin at the W (Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault). Vertical electrical soundings were also acquired over the seismic profiles and the refraction interpretation of the reflection data was carried out. According to the interpretation of the collected data, a complex fault pattern disrupts the near surface (first 400 m) at Porto Alto, affecting the Upper Neogene and (at least for one fault) the Quaternary, with a normal offset component. The consistency with the previous oil-industry profiles interpretation supports the location and geometry of this fault zone. Concerning the second structure, two major faults were detected north of Vila Franca de Xira, supporting the extension of the Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault zone northwards. One of these faults presents a reverse geometry apparently displacing Holocene alluvium. Vertical offsets of the Holocene sediments detected in the studied geophysical data of Porto Alto and Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon faults imply minimum slip rates of 0.15–0.30 mm/year, three times larger than previously inferred for active faults in the Lower Tagus Valley and maximum estimates of average return periods of 2000–5000 years for M 6.5–7 co-seismic ruptures.     

Modelling mechanical behaviour of limestone under reservoir conditions

High porosity and low permeability limestone has presented pore collapse. As fluid is withdrawn from these reservoirs, the effective stresses acting on the rock increase. If the strength of the rock is overcome, pore collapse may occur, leading to irreversible compaction of porous media with permeability and porosity reduction. It impacts on fluid withdrawal. Most of reservoirs have been discovered in weak formations, which are susceptible to this phenomenon. This work presents a study on the mechanical behaviour of a porous limestone from a reservoir located in Campos Basin, offshore Brazil. An experimental program was undergone in order to define its elastic plastic behaviour. The tests reproduced the loading path conditions expected in a reservoir under production. Parameters of the cap model were fitted to these tests and numerical simulations were run. The numerical simulations presented a good agreement with the experimental tests. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Turbulent regeneration of magnetic fields

We calculate an exact form for the regeneration term of the turbulent dynamo equation which is valid for arbitrary values of the magnetic Reynolds number. It is shown that finite conductivity can change the regenerative character of the dynamo, depending on the geometry and character of the fluid motion in the turbulent eddies.On leave from the Departamento de Fisica Teorica e Experimental, UFRN, Natal, RB, Brazil.     

Geological and SHRIMP II U-Pb constraints on the age and origin of the Breves Cu-Au-(W-Bi-Sn) deposit,Carajás,Brazil

The Breves deposit in the Carajás Copper-Gold Belt, Brazil, a member of the Cu-Au-(W-Bi-Sn) group of deposits, contains about 50 Mt of 1.22% Cu, 0.75 g/t Au, 2.4 g/t Ag, 1,200 g/t W, 70 g/t Sn, 175 g/t Mo and 75 g/t Bi. It is hosted by sandstones and siltstones of the Águas Claras Formation (minimum age of 2,681±5 Ma) in the roof zone of a complex, highly altered granite intrusion. The mineralisation is disseminated in a greisenized zone, resulting from alteration of probable monzogranites and syenogranites. The ore-bearing greisen contains abundant xenomorphic quartz in association with Fe-chlorite and muscovite. The gangue assemblage also includes fluorite, tourmaline, and minor amounts of monazite, xenotime, chlorapatite, thorite, zircon, calcite, siderite and bastnäesite. Copper mineralisation is dominated by chalcopyrite associated with pyrite, arsenopyrite, pyrrhotite and molybdenite. Gold particles, in equilibrium with native bismuth, are common as inclusions in chalcopyrite. The greisen contains sub-economic concentrations of tungsten and niobium that are related to the presence of ferberite, qitianlingite and Nb-rutile. SHRIMP II zircon dating of the host granites gives ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages of 1,878±8 and 1,880±9 Ma for two phases, and a combined age of 1,879±6 Ma. SHRIMP II dating of monazite and xenotime grains in late- to post-mineralisation veins gives a combined ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb age of 1,872±7 Ma, indistinguishable from the ages of the granites. This provides a genetic connection between the Breves deposit and the ca. 1.88 Ga A-type granite magmatism that typifies the Carajás Belt as part of a much larger, intracratonic magmatic province that extends over much of the Amazonian Craton. The recognition of this association has exploration implications, not only for the geophysical signature of the granite roof zones, but also for likely geochemical dispersion around the deposits of this type.Editorial handling: G. Beaudoin