Modelling shallow landslide susceptibility: a new approach in logistic regression by using favourability assessment

A new method for estimating shallow landslide susceptibility by combining Geographical Information System (GIS), nonparametric kernel density estimation and logistic regression is described. Specifically, a logistic regression is applied to predict the spatial distribution by estimating the probability of occurrence of a landslide in a 16 km² area. For this purpose, a GIS is employed to gather the relevant sample information connected with the landslides. The advantages of pre-processing the explanatory variables by nonparametric density estimation (for continuous variables) and a reclassification (for categorical/discrete ones) are discussed. The pre-processing leads to new explanatory variables, namely, some functions which measure the favourability of occurrence of a landslide. The resulting model correctly classifies 98.55% of the inventaried landslides and 89.80% of the landscape surface without instabilities. New data about recent shallow landslides were collected in order to validate the model, and 92.20% of them are also correctly classified. The results support the methodology and the extrapolation of the model to the whole study area (278 km²) in order to obtain susceptibility maps.     

Simulation of moist mountain waves with an anelastic model

Abstract

A two-dimensional, nonlinear, time-dependent, non-hydrostatic, anelastic, numerical model is used to assess the effect of condensation on the evolution and structure of gravity waves generated by the passage of a stable, moist stream over topography. Precipation is ignored but water phase changes are taken into account explicitly.

The main effect of condensation is to damp the wave intensity and to reduce the wave drag, which can be diminished by as much as 50% compared to its value in dry simulations. This result agrees with some earlier analytical models and some more recent fully compressible numerical models.

This model also confirms that the presence of condensation delays the overturning of isentropes, and the formation of the critical layer that accompanies wave-breaking.     

Occurrence and fate of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the coastal surface microlayer

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were measured in the coastal sea surface microlayer (SML), the sub-surface waters (SSW) and the overlying atmosphere in order to investigate the influence of the SML on contaminant enrichment and air-sea exchange. Samples were collected at two contrasting locations of the NW Mediterranean, one urban influenced (off Barcelona, Spain) and another comparatively clean (off Banyuls-sur-Mer, France). Statistical data analysis confirmed the accumulation of PAHs in the SML with respect to the SSW (20.3+/-9.1 vs. 13.1+/-10.0 ng L(-1) in the dissolved phase; 709+/-207 vs. 158+/-111 ng g(-1) in the particulate phase). This accumulation was higher at the contaminated location (Barcelona station) compared with the more pristine one, with PAH enrichments 1.5 and 4.5 times higher for the dissolved and particulate phases, respectively, indicating that the enrichment of PAHs in the SML is dominated by particle transport processes.     

Effect of agrochemicals on macroinvertebrate assemblages in Pampasic streams,Buenos Aires,Argentina

Agricultural practices have been intensified in recent decades in Argentina. The Pampa plain is the main agricultural region of the country. The effect of increased application of agrochemicals on the invertebrate fauna of the Pampasic streams remains unreported. In the present study, we compared the abundance and composition of invertebrate assemblages in seven Pampasic streams with contrasting soil use in their basins. Two streams run through intensively cropped plots, two drain basins with livestock fields, while the other three are located within a biosphere Reserve. Higher nutrient and insecticide concentrations were measured in the streams draining cropped basins, related with pesticide applications and crop fertilization. The invertebrate assemblage composition of the cropped streams differed significantly from the others and between the two. Present evidence suggests that the impact of agrochemicals results in a change in composition with decreased abundance or absence of sensitive species such as Hyalellidae, Caenidae, Baetidae and Curculionidae and increased abundance of more tolerant taxa: Ostracoda, Glossiphoniidae (Hirudinea), Ancylidae (Gundlanchia), Ampullariidae (Pomacea canaliculata), Sphaeriidae and Dugesiidae. Available information suggests that macrophyte cover and composition also influence the invertebrate assemblages of the Pampasic streams.     

Estimates of heat flow and heat production and a thermal model of the São Francisco craton

An updated analysis of geothermal data from the highland area of eastern Brazil has been carried out and the characteristics of regional variations in geothermal gradients and heat flow examined. The database employed includes results of geothermal measurements at 45 localities. The results indicate that the Salvador craton and the adjacent metamorphic fold belts northeastern parts of the study area are characterized by geothermal gradients in the range of 6–17°C/km. The estimated heat flow values fall in the range of 28–53 mW/m², with low values in the cratonic area relative to the fold belts. On the other hand, the São Francisco craton and the intracratonic São Francisco sedimentary basin in the southwestern parts are characterized by relatively higher gradient values, in the range of 14–42°C/km, with the corresponding heat flow values falling in the range of 36–89 mW/m². Maps of regional variations indicate that high heat flow anomaly in the São Francisco craton is limited to areas of sedimentary cover, to the west of the Espinhaço mountain belt. Crustal thermal models have been developed to examine the implications of the observed intracratonic variations in heat flow. The thermal models take into consideration variation of thermal conductivity with temperature as well as change of radiogenic heat generation with depth. Vertical distributions of seismic velocities were used in obtaining estimates of radiogenic heat production in crustal layers. Crustal temperatures are calculated based on a procedure that makes simultaneous use of the Kirchoff and Generalized Integral Transforms, providing thereby analytical solutions in 2D and 3D geometry. The results point to temperature variations of up to 300°C at the Moho depth, between the northern Salvador and southern São Francisco cratons. There are indications that differences in rheological properties, related to thermal field, are responsible for the contrasting styles of deformation patterns in the adjacent metamorphic fold belts.     

Late Pleistocene outburst flooding from pluvial Lake Alvord into the Owyhee River, Oregon

At least one large, late Pleistocene flood traveled into the Owyhee River as a result of a rise and subsequent outburst from pluvial Lake Alvord in southeastern Oregon. Lake Alvord breached Big Sand Gap in its eastern rim after reaching an elevation of 1292 m, releasing 11.3 km³ of water into the adjacent Coyote Basin as it eroded the Big Sand Gap outlet channel to an elevation of about 1280 m. The outflow filled and then spilled out of Coyote Basin through two outlets at 1278 m and into Crooked Creek drainage, ultimately flowing into the Owyhee and Snake Rivers. Along Crooked Creek, the resulting flood eroded canyons, stripped bedrock surfaces, and deposited numerous boulder bars containing imbricated clasts up to 4.1 m in diameter, some of which are located over 30 m above the present-day channel.Critical depth calculations at Big Sand Gap show that maximum outflow from a 1292- to 1280-m drop in Lake Alvord was  10,000 m³ s^− 1. Flooding became confined to a single channel approximately 40 km downstream of Big Sand Gap, where step-backwater calculations show that a much larger peak discharge of 40,000 m³ s^− 1 is required to match the highest geologic evidence of the flood in this channel. This inconsistency can be explained by (1) a single 10,000 m³ s^− 1 flood that caused at least 13 m of vertical incision in the channel (hence enlarging the channel cross-section); (2) multiple floods of 10,000 m³ s^− 1 or less, each producing some incision of the channel; or (3) an earlier flood of 40,000 m³ s^− 1 creating the highest flood deposits and crossed drainage divides observed along Crooked Creek drainage, followed by a later 10,000 m³ s^− 1 flood associated with the most recent shorelines in Alvord and Coyote Basins.Well-developed shorelines of Lake Alvord at 1280 m and in Coyote Basin at 1278 m suggest that after the initial flood, postflood overflow persisted for an extended period, connecting Alvord and Coyote Basins with the Owyhee River of the Columbia River drainage. Surficial weathering characteristics and planktonic freshwater diatoms in Lake Alvord sediment stratigraphically below Mt. St. Helens set Sg tephra, suggest deep open-basin conditions at  13–14 ka (¹⁴C yr) and that the flood and prominent shorelines date to about this time. But geomorphic and sedimentological evidence also show that Alvord and Coyote Basins held older, higher-elevation lakes that may have released earlier floods down Crooked Creek.     

Influence of the spatial resolution of satellite-derived vegetation parameters on the biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) emission modeling

Vegetation is a natural source of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) that plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry. The main objective of the current study is to implement a model to quantify process-based VOC emissions from plants that focuses on the relationship between the sensitivity of VOC emission estimates to spatial resolution data, based on scientific knowledge and vegetation dynamics derived from satellite observations. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) were elected to examine this issue using different resolutions of satellite-derived products: 22m from the DEIMOS-1 satellite, and 250m and 1000m provided by MODIS. The study is focused on an area of 80×80km² in Portugal for 2011. Detailed land cover and meteorological data are also included in the emission quantification algorithm. The primary outcomes were determined using a multi-scale analysis showing spatial and temporal variations in the vegetation parameters and modeling results. The results confirm that the emissions model is highly sensitive to the spatial resolution of the satellite-derived data, resulting in about a 30% difference in total isoprene emissions for the study area.     

Tectonic implications of the earthquake swarm of 1997 in the Michoacan Triangle, Mexico

An earthquake swarm occurred during February and March 1997 in the vicinity of the Tancitaro Volcano, in the southern part of the tectonically complex Michoacan Triangle. A study of these events provides an opportunity to map the active faults in the area and to learn if the orientation and the sense of motion on these faults are consistent with the mapped faults and the alignment of cinder cones in the region. The foci of 230 earthquakes, which could be located, are distributed between 10 and 18 km depth, and show an alignment in, roughly, a NE direction. The focal mechanisms and seismic moments of the 27 best-recorded events were determined by waveform modeling of P and S waves. These mechanisms show two distinct patterns. More than 50% of the solutions are left-lateral strike–slip mechanisms with a normal component. The preferred fault plane strikes NE. Another group of events, probably caused by triggered seismicity on the Chapala–Oaxaca fault zone, shows left-lateral strike–slip mechanisms with a large-thrust component on NW-trending faults. S wave splitting shows 1–2.5% crustal-anisotropy. The direction of the anisotropy coincides with the NE alignment of events, and the preferred nodal plane. This is also the alignment of cinder cones, suggesting that preexisting fractures and cracks are responsible for the seismicity and anisotropic behavior of the crust. The resulting stress orientation, NE compression, is the one expected for the fore-arc region. We conclude that although Michoacan Triangle lies in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, it does not form part of this stress province where the stress orientation is NS extension.     

Seismic quantification of the explosions that destroyed the dome of Volcán de Colima, Mexico, in July–August 2003

In July–August 2003, the andesitic lava dome at Volcán de Colima, México, was destroyed by a sequence of explosions that replaced the 2×10⁶ m³ dome with a crater 200 m across and 30 m deep. The two strongest explosions occurred on July 17 and August 28. The initial low-frequency impulses that they produced, which were recorded on broadband seismic records, allowed an estimation of the counter forces of the initiating process as being equal to 0.3×10¹¹ N and 1×10¹¹ N for the July and August events, respectively. The seismic characteristics follow the Nishimura-Hamaguchi scaling law for volcanic explosions, reflecting self-similarity in the processes initiating explosive events. The results also show that counter forces can discriminate between the sizes of explosive eruptions that are assigned the same magnitude by conventional methods of classification such as the Volcanic Explosivity Index. The increasing use of broadband seismometers may therefore provide the basis for using counter forces to determine the magnitude of explosive eruptions.