Entropy‐based equation to assess hillslope sediment production

A new equation to assess hillslope sediment production, based on physical and probabilistic approaches, is presented. The equation, which allows the computation of the delivery ratio for every event, considers the physical variables of travel distance, stream power, settling velocity and gross erosion. The probability density function that arises from the new formulation is solved using the principle of maximum entropy. Based on data from five watersheds in both tropical and temperate zones, the new delivery parameter K_v is calibrated and associated with vegetation cover and conservation practice. The proposed equation is rationally based in relation to parameter K_v. The entropy‐based equation was applied to assess sediment yield in two other experimental watersheds, showing good predictability for the set (mean absolute error of 20·8%). No systematic error was found in the analysed data. The entropy‐based equation showed good predictability for long‐term sets of data and for high‐erosivity events, but did not perform well for the low‐erosivity ones. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geochemistry and Sm–Nd isotopic systematics of Ediacaran–Ordovician,sedimentary and bimodal igneous rocks in the western Acatlán Complex,southern Mexico: Evidence for rifting on the southern margin of the Rheic Ocean

Ordovician igneous rocks in the western Acatlán Complex (Olinalá area) of southern Mexico include a bimodal igneous suite that intrudes quartzites and gneisses of the Zacango Unit, and all these rocks were polydeformed and metamorphosed in the amphibolite facies during the Devono-Carboniferous. The Ordovician igneous rocks consist of the penecontemporaneous amphibolites, megacrystic granitoids and leucogranite, the latter dated at ca. 464 Ma. Geochemical and Sm–Nd data indicate that the amphibolites have a differentiated tholeiitic signature, and that its mafic protoliths formed in an extensional setting transitional between within-plate and ocean floor. The amphibolites are variably contaminated by a Mesoproterozoic crustal source, inferred to be the Oaxacan basement exposed in the adjacent terrane. The most primitive samples have εNdt (t = 465 Ma) values significantly below that of the contemporary depleted mantle and were probably derived from the sub-continental lithospheric mantle. The megacrystic granites were most probably derived by partial melting of an arc crustal source (similar to the Oaxacan Complex) and triggered by the ascent of mafic magma from the lithospheric mantle. Sm–Nd isotopic signatures suggest that metasedimentary rocks from Zacango Unit were derived from adjacent Oaxacan Complex. Trace elements relationships (e.g. La/Th vs. Hf) and REE patterns suggest provenance in felsic-intermediate igneous rocks with a calc-alkaline signature. The Ordovician bimodal magmatism is inferred to have resulted from rifting on the southern flank of the Rheic Ocean and is an expression of a major rifting event that occurred along much of the northern Gondwanan margin in the Ordovician.     

Resilience and brittleness in the ALERTA RIO system: a field study about the decision-making of forecasters

Natural disasters, particularly those triggered by heavy rainfall, may cause major damage and death. However, if an accurate early warning is issued, the damage can be mitigated. In Latin America and Brazil, characteristics of socioeconomic development often lead to a disorderly growth of cities and, consequently, occupation and irregular construction in risk areas. Therefore, forecasts of heavy rainfall, as well as preventative and mitigatory actions based on meteorological data/alerts, are essential to saving lives and minimizing material loss. An event that would have benefited from such actions is that which occurred in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011, when over 800 people lost their lives. This work describes the first research initiative on resilience engineering domain in systems to forecast heavy rains in Rio de Janeiro. The results indicate important sources of brittleness in the system that supports the work of meteorologists, mainly related to the technical and organizational framework, and suggests that the main source of resilience in dealing with critical situations is the tacit knowledge of experts.     

Tectonic significance of an earthquake sequence in the Zacoalco half-graben, Jalisco, Mexico

We studied a sequence of small earthquakes that occurred during the months of April and May of 1997, in Jalisco, southwestern Mexico. The earthquakes were located along a set of active faults that form the Zacoalco half-graben (La Lima fault system), west of Lake Chapala, within the rift–rift–rift triple junction. A total of 33 events were located, with magnitudes ranging from 1.5 to 3.5, recorded by a portable array of broadband seismographs. We identified two groups of events: one corresponding to a shallow normal fault, synthetic to La Lima fault system, and another group associated with a deeper fault. The events that occurred on the synthetic fault show normal faulting oriented on a NW–SE plane, dipping shallowly towards the SW. The other group of mechanisms showed either a normal fault oriented NW–SE and dipping steeply to the NE, or a very shallow-dipping normal fault, dipping to the SW. Earthquake distribution and fault plane solutions suggest that the Zacoalco half-graben developed from blocks that rotate as slip occurs on listric faults. These mechanisms could represent the type of motion expected for larger earthquakes in the area, like the one that occurred in 1568.     

Landform instability and land-use dynamics in tropical high mountains, Central Mexico

This investigation is an analysis of the influence of landform instability on the distribution of land-use dynamics in a hydrographical basin, located in the Mexican Volcanic Belt mountain range (central Mexico), currently affected by substantial changes in land use and deforestation. A landform map was produced, in addition to seven attribute maps - altimetry, drainage density, slope, relief energy, potential erosion, geology and tectonics - which were considered as factors for determining landform instability through Multi-criteria Evaluation Analysis. Likewise, the direction and rhythm of land-use dynamics were analyzed in four dates - between 1976 and 2000 - and cross tabulations were made between them, in order to analyze the trends and processes of land-use dynamics. Afterwards, the databases obtained were cross tabulated with the landform variables to derive areas, percentages and correlation indices. In the study area, high-instability landforms are associated with most ancient volcanic and sedimentary landforms, where high altitude, drainage density, slope and potential to develop gravitational and fluvial processes are the major factors favouring a land-use pattern, dominated by the conservation of extensive forest land, abandonment of human land use and regeneration of disturbed areas. In contrast, low-instability landforms correspond to alluvial plains and lava hills covered by pyroclasts, where low potential erosion to develop fluvial processes, added to water and soil availability and accessibility, have favoured a land-use pattern dominated by the expansion of agroforestry plantations and human settlements, showing a marked trend towards either intensification or permanence of the current land use and with little abandonment and regeneration.     

Chemical Mechanism Development: Laboratory Studies and Model Applications

Within the German Tropospheric Research Programme (TFS) numerous kinetic and mechanistic studies on the tropospheric reaction/degradation of the following reactants were carried out: oxygenated VOC, aromatic VOC, biogenic VOC, short-lived intermediates, such as alkoxy and alkylperoxy radicals.At the conception of the projects these selected groups were classes of VOC or intermediates for which the atmospheric oxidation mechanisms were either poorly characterised or totally unknown. The motivation for these studies was the attainment of significant improvements in our understanding of the atmospheric chemical oxidation processes of these compounds, particularly with respect to their involvement in photooxidant formation in the troposphere. In the present paper the types of experimental investigations performed and the results obtained within the various projects are briefly summarised. The major achievements are highlighted and discussed in terms of their contribution to improving our understanding of the chemical processes controlling photosmog formation in the troposphere.     

Potential Salinity and Temperature Futures for the Chesapeake Bay Using a Statistical Downscaling Spatial Disaggregation Framework

Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO₂ emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries.     

The new national climate change documents of Mexico: what do the regional climate change scenarios represent?

This paper presents a review of the methodology applied for generating the regional climate change scenarios utilized in important National Documents of Mexico, such as the Fourth National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Fourth National Report to the Convention on Biological Diversity and The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico. It is shown that these regional climate change scenarios, which are one of the main inputs to support the assessments presented in these documents, are an example of the erroneous use of statistical downscaling techniques. The arguments presented here imply that the work based on such scenarios should be revised and therefore, these documents are inadequate for supporting national decision- making.     

Impacts of uncertain river flow data on rainfall‐runoff model calibration and discharge predictions

In order to quantify total error affecting hydrological models and predictions, we must explicitly recognize errors in input data, model structure, model parameters and validation data. This paper tackles the last of these: errors in discharge measurements used to calibrate a rainfall‐runoff model, caused by stage–discharge rating‐curve uncertainty. This uncertainty may be due to several combined sources, including errors in stage and velocity measurements during individual gaugings, assumptions regarding a particular form of stage–discharge relationship, extrapolation of the stage–discharge relationship beyond the maximum gauging, and cross‐section change due to vegetation growth and/or bed movement. A methodology is presented to systematically assess and quantify the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to all of these sources. For a given stage measurement, a complete PDF of true discharge is estimated. Consequently, new model calibration techniques can be introduced to explicitly account for the discharge error distribution. The method is demonstrated for a gravel‐bed river in New Zealand, where all the above uncertainty sources can be identified, including significant uncertainty in cross‐section form due to scour and re‐deposition of sediment. Results show that rigorous consideration of uncertainty in flow data results in significant improvement of the model's ability to predict the observed flow. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Monte Carlo Model Of The Nocturnal Surface Temperatures In Urban Canyons

A model for the urban canyon is formulated for meteorologicalconditions of weak winds at night time. Thermal radiation, conductivity and convection are simulated by means of the Monte Carlo method. These are the main physical processesof energy transfer that give rise to the characteristic temperaturedistribution in these systems. The model has been satisfactory tested under ideal conditions for which analytical solutions exist.The predictions of the model under morerealistic conditions accurately reproduce the observationalresults. A strong temperature gradient across streets, with the canyon corners up to 4 °C warmer than the canyon centre, is found for the deepest canyons. This theoretical predictionhas been successfully verified with measurementstaken in a number of streets of the city of Granada in Spain.