Rappresentazione di curve spaziali materializzate

Riassunto Per rappresentare una curva spaziale su un piano si può piegare un filo metallico secondo la curva e fotografarlo, operazione che però richiede molto tempo. Nel presente articolo l'A. illustra un dispositivo ottico che, sostituito alla matita della tavola di egresso della macchina diBush, è atto a descrivere su pellicola una curva simile all'immagine fotografica del filo. In questo studio si sono considerati soltanto i casi in cui la sorgente di luce che illumina la è all'infinito o nella origine delle coordinate, mentre il punto di vista à sempre all'infinito.

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Summary One may represent a spatial curve on a plane by bending a metal thread along the curve and then photographing it, but in this way much time is wasted. In the present paper the A. suggests an optical device which, replaced to the pencil of the out-put table ofBush's machine, traces on film a curve that should look like the photographic image of the thread. In this study were taken into account only the cases in which the light source lighting , is at the infinite or in the coordinate origin, while the point of view is always at the infinite.

     

La scintillazione delle stelle nella previsione del tempo

Riassunto Richiamate brevemente le conoscenze fondamentali sulla scintillizzazione stellare, si espongono i principi generali di un procedimento inteso a ricavare elementi d'integrazione alle osservazioni sinottiche per la formulazione del presagio meteorico locale, partendo dalla accurata e sistematica misura della scintillazione stessa. Lo studio ha carattere preliminare, contenendo considerazioni generali la cui applicazione dovrà trovare conferma dallo sviluppo delle relative osservazioni.

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Zusammenfassung Nach einem Überblick über die Entwicklung unserer Kenntnissen zur Erklärung des Funkelns der Sterne, gibt der Verf. die allgemeinen Richtlinien einer Methode, welche, stützend auf systematischen Beobachtungen dieser Erscheinung, die synoptischen Verfahren der Wettervorhersage unterstützen und ergänzen kann. Die Schrift gilt als vorläuflge Mitteilung, besonders in Anbetrachtung der Notwendigkeit einer entsprechenden Entwicklung und Verfeinerung der Beobachtungen.

     

Delayed action and uncertain stabilisation targets. How much will the delay cost?

Despite the growing concern about actual on-going climate change, there is little consensus on the scale and timing of actions needed to stabilise the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Many countries are unwilling to implement mitigation strategies, at least in the short term, and no agreement on an ambitious global stabilisation target has yet been reached. It is thus likely that international climate policies will be characterized by a high degree of uncertainty over the stringency of the climate objective, and that some countries might delay their participation to global action. What additional economic costs will this delay in the adoption of mitigation measures imply? What would the optimal short-term strategy be given the uncertainty surrounding the climate policy to come? Is there a hedging strategy that decision makers can adopt to cope with delayed action and uncertain targets? This paper addresses these questions by quantifying the economic implications of delaying mitigation action, and by computing the optimal abatement strategy in the presence of uncertainty about a global stabilisation target (which will be agreed upon in future climate negotiations). Results point to short-term inaction as the key determinant for the economic costs of ambitious climate policies. They also indicate that there is an effective hedging strategy that could minimise the cost of climate policy uncertainty over the global stabilisation target: a short-term moderate climate policy would be a good strategy to reduce the costs of delayed action and to cope with uncertainty about the outcome of future climate negotiations. By contrast, failing to curb emissions in the short term imposes rapidly increasing additional costs of compliance.     

Carbon dioxide degassing and thermal energy release in the Monte Amiata volcanic-geothermal area (Italy)

The quaternary volcanic complex of Mount Amiata is located in southern Tuscany (Italy) and represents the most recent manifestation of the Tuscan Magmatic Province. The region is characterised by a large thermal anomaly and by the presence of numerous CO₂-rich gas emissions and geothermal features, mainly located at the periphery of the volcanic complex. Two geothermal systems are located, at increasing depths, in the carbonate and metamorphic formations beneath the volcanic complex. The shallow volcanic aquifer is separated from the deep geothermal systems by a low permeability unit (Ligurian Unit). A measured CO₂ discharge through soils of 1.8 × 10⁹ mol a⁻¹ shows that large amounts of CO₂ move from the deep reservoir to the surface. A large range in δ¹³C_TDIC (−21.07 to +3.65) characterises the waters circulating in the aquifers of the region and the mass and isotopic balance of TDIC allows distinguishing a discharge of 0.3 × 10⁹ mol a⁻¹ of deeply sourced CO₂ in spring waters. The total natural CO₂ discharge (2.1 × 10⁹ mol a⁻¹) is slightly less than minimum CO₂ output estimated by an indirect method (2.8 × 10⁹ mol a⁻¹), but present-day release of 5.8 × 10⁹ mol a⁻¹ CO₂ from deep geothermal wells may have reduced natural CO₂ discharge. The heat transported by groundwater, computed considering the increase in temperature from the infiltration area to the discharge from springs, is of the same order of magnitude, or higher, than the regional conductive heat flow (>200 mW m⁻²) and reaches extremely high values (up to 2700 mW m⁻²) in the north-eastern part of the study area. Heat transfer occurs mainly by conductive heating in the volcanic aquifer and by uprising gas and vapor along fault zones and in those areas where low permeability cover is lacking. The comparison of CO₂ flux, heat flow and geological setting shows that near surface geology and hydrogeological setting play a central role in determining CO₂ degassing and heat transfer patterns.     

Correction to: New insights into the rainfall variability in the tropical Andes on seasonal and interannual time scales

Climate Dynamics - The original version of the article contained errors in Fig.     

Effects of Amazon basin deforestation on regional atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport towards tropical South America

The water cycle over the Amazon basin is a regulatory mechanism for regional and global climate. The atmospheric moisture evaporated from this basin represents an important source of humidity for itself and for other remote regions. The deforestation rates that this basin has experienced in the past decades have implications for regional atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport. In this study, we analyzed the changes in atmospheric moisture transport towards tropical South America during the period 1961–2010, according to two deforestation scenarios of the Amazon defined by Alves et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 100(3-4):337–350, 2017). These scenarios consider deforested areas of approximately 28% and 38% of the Amazon basin, respectively. The Dynamic Recycling Model is used to track the transport of water vapor from different sources in tropical South America and the surrounding oceans. Our results indicate that under deforestation scenarios in the Amazon basin, continental sources reduce their contributions to northern South America at an annual scale by an average of between 40 and 43% with respect to the baseline state. Our analyses suggest that these changes may be related to alterations in the regional Hadley and Walker cells. Amazon deforestation also induces a strengthening of the cross-equatorial flow that transports atmospheric moisture from the Tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea to tropical South America during the austral summer. A weakening of the cross-equatorial flow is observed during the boreal summer, reducing moisture transport from the Amazon to latitudes further north. These changes alter the patterns of precipitable water contributions to tropical South America from both continental and oceanic sources. Finally, we observed that deforestation over the Amazon basin increases the frequency of occurrence of longer dry seasons in the central-southern Amazon (by between 29 and 57%), depending on the deforestation scenario considered, as previous studies suggest.     

Inconstancy in predator/prey ratios in Quaternary large mammal communities of Italy, with an appraisal of mechanisms

Constancy in predator/prey ratio (PPR) is a controversial issue in ecological research. Published reports support both constancy and inconstancy of the ratio in animal communities. Only a few studies, however, specifically address its course through time. Here we study the course of predator/prey ratio in communities of large Plio-Pleistocene mammals in Italy. After controlling for taphonomic biases, we find strong support for PPR inconstancy through time. Extinction, dispersal events, and differences in body size trends between predators and their prey were found to affect the ratio, which was distributed almost bimodally. We suggest that this stepwise dynamic in PPR indicates changes in ecosystem functioning. Prey richness was controlled by predation when PPR was high and by resources when PPR was low.     

Efficiency of base isolation systems in structural seismic protection and energetic assessment

This paper concerns the seismic response of structures isolated at the base by means of High Damping Rubber Bearings (HDRB). The analysis is performed by using a stochastic approach, and a Gaussian zero mean filtered non‐stationary stochastic process is used in order to model the seismic acceleration acting at the base of the structure. More precisely, the generalized Kanai–Tajimi model is adopted to describe the non‐stationary amplitude and frequency characteristics of the seismic motion. The hysteretic differential Bouc–Wen model (BWM) is adopted in order to take into account the non‐linear constitutive behaviour both of the base isolation device and of the structure. Moreover, the stochastic linearization method in the time domain is adopted to estimate the statistical moments of the non‐linear system response in the state space. The non‐linear differential equation of the response covariance matrix is then solved by using an iterative procedure which updates the coefficients of the equivalent linear system at each step and searches for the solution of the response covariance matrix equation. After the system response variance is estimated, a sensitivity analysis is carried out. The final aim of the research is to assess the real capacity of base isolation devices in order to protect the structures from seismic actions, by avoiding a non‐linear response, with associated large plastic displacements and, therefore, by limiting related damage phenomena in structural and non‐structural elements. In order to attain this objective the stochastic response of a non‐linear n‐dof shear‐type base‐isolated building is analysed; the constitutive law both of the structure and of the base devices is described, as previously reported, by adopting the BWM and by using appropriate parameters for this model, able to suitably characterize an ordinary building and the base isolators considered in the study. The protection level offered to the structure by the base isolators is then assessed by evaluating the reduction both of the displacement response and the hysteretic dissipated energy. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic vulnerability of bridges in transport networks subjected to environmental deterioration

This paper investigates the problem of management, maintenance and planning of interventions in transport networks located in seismic zones, in relation to the actual state of degradation of their most vulnerable elements, as bridges. The study consists in two phases: the first phase is concerned with definition of the seismic vulnerability of a typical bridge in the network, through the construction of fragility curves calculated taking into account the corrosion of the reinforcing steel as the main cause of environmental deterioration. Once the fragility curves of the deteriorated bridges are computed, the second phase consists in the analysis of the vulnerability of the transport network in which the bridges are included taking into account the modification of the traffic flows when bridge infrastructures are damaged. The results of this pilot study can be used as a first step for a proper allocation of economic resources in the planning of seismic retrofit interventions to minimize the overall risk and manage the immediate post-earthquake emergency phase and guide rescuers in reaching the affected and critical areas.