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排序方式: 共有423条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
131.
Dry Creek is a major tributary of the Russian River in Northern California (USA) that has experienced hydrologic and morphologic alterations after the closure of Warm Springs Dam in 1983. Our objective is to present a detailed diagnosis of the modification of the creek’s flow and sediment regimes, and interpret the alterations regarding the ecomorphologic evolution previously observed in the creek. Statistical analysis of the river’s flow and sediment series indicates that dam operation has had significant impacts on the magnitude and frequency of occurrence of the highest floods, and the magnitude, variability, and duration of low and very low flows. Similarly, sediment concentration and discharge have also experienced major alterations. Loss of habitat complexity for native flora and fauna (especially endangered salmonids), channel incision, and vegetation encroachment are some of the negative trends found for the creek over the last 30 years, since river regulation began. We discuss the present dynamics of the river and propose, on that basis, the improvement of its hydromorphic functioning as part of future large-scale restoration initiatives. 相似文献
132.
Carlo Del Gaudio Paolo Ricci Gerardo Mario Verderame 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(10):4581-4605
The simplified mechanical method POST (PushOver on Shear Type models) for seismic vulnerability assessment of RC buildings is used in this study to derive damage scenarios for a database of 7597 RC buildings subjected to the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake. POST allows the evaluation of fragility curves through the determination of the non-linear static response of RC buildings in closed form, assuming the hypothesis of shear type behaviour, and considering the influence of infill panels both in the derivation of structural response and in assessment of building damage, which is defined according to the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98. The aim of the present study is to provide a much more significant and reliable validation of the methodology, thanks to a much wider database compared to previous studies, and based on a different application of the methodology, i.e. at building class-level instead of single building-level. To this aim, the main geometrical-typological characteristics of the analysed buildings (number of storeys, age of construction, building area) have been statistically characterized based on data collected from post-earthquake AeDES survey forms, considering both the variability of each single parameter and the correlation that exists between one parameter and the other. This also allows to analyse the effectiveness of the adopted analytical procedure in predicting the general trends of observed damage with these parameters, showing a good agreement between observed and predicted trends. The overall predicted damage scenarios are compared with the corresponding observed ones, collected from AeDES survey forms, highlighting, again, a good agreement. Finally, the assumed mechanical interpretation of damage classification of EMS-98 is validated through the comparison between the distributions of damage to vertical structures and infill panels and the corresponding observed post-earthquake damage data. 相似文献
133.
A Bayesian hierarchical approach for spatial analysis of climate model bias in multi-model ensembles
Maeregu?Woldeyes?ArisidoEmail author Carlo?Gaetan Davide?Zanchettin Angelo?Rubino 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(10):2645-2657
Coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models are key tools to investigate climate dynamics and the climatic response to external forcings, to predict climate evolution and to generate future climate projections. Current general circulation models are, however, undisputedly affected by substantial systematic errors in their outputs compared to observations. The assessment of these so-called biases, both individually and collectively, is crucial for the models’ evaluation prior to their predictive use. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for a unified assessment of spatially referenced climate model biases in a multi-model framework. A key feature of our approach is that the model quantifies an overall common bias that is obtained by synthesizing bias across the different climate models in the ensemble, further determining the contribution of each model to the overall bias. Moreover, we determine model-specific individual bias components by characterizing them as non-stationary spatial fields. The approach is illustrated based on the case of near-surface air temperature bias in the tropical Atlantic and bordering regions from a multi-model ensemble of historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The results demonstrate the improved quantification of the bias and interpretative advantages allowed by the posterior distributions derived from the proposed Bayesian hierarchical framework, whose generality favors its broader application within climate model assessment. 相似文献
134.
Matteo Vacchi Giovanni De Falco Simone Simeone Monica Montefalcone Carla Morri Marco Ferrari Carlo Nike Bianchi 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(1):42-54
Here we review the multiple interactions between the endemic Mediterranean seagrass, Posidonia oceanica, and coastal geomorphologic processes as an outstanding example of biogeomorphology, taking into account recent advances in the field. Seagrass meadows are among the most important elements for the functioning of marine coastal ecosystems, and represent a major focus for research and conservation. Being considered a priority habitat, P. oceanica meadows are protected by several European Union directives and national laws. In this paper we examine: the role of sedimentary features in controlling the development of the meadows; the interplay between P. oceanica leaf litter (i.e. beached necromass) cast ashore and erosional‐depositional processes on the beaches; the interactions between meadows and nearshore hydrodynamics, and; possible linkages between geomorphological features of the seafloor and the architecture of meadows. Finally, we provide perspectives for future research on P. oceanica and other Mediterranean seagrass meadows in a biogeomorphological context with specific reference to climate change. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
135.
Hydroclimatology of the Upper Madeira River basin: spatio-temporal variability and trends 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Jorge Molina-Carpio Jhan Carlo Espinoza Philippe Vauchel Josyane Ronchail Beatriz Gutierrez Caloir Jean-Loup Guyot 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(6):911-927
Rising in the Andes, the Madeira River drains the southwestern part of the Amazon basin, which is characterized by high geographical, biological and climatic diversity. This study uses daily records to assess the spatio-temporal runoff variability in the Madeira sub-basins. Results show that inter-annual variability of both discharge and rainfall differs between Andean and lowland tributaries. High-flow discharge variability in the Andean tributaries and the Guaporé River is mostly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific in austral summer, while tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST modulates rainfall and discharge variability in the lowlands. There also is a downward trend in the low-flow discharge of the lowland tributaries which is not observed in the Andes. Because low-flow discharge values at most lowland stations are negatively related to the SST in the tropical North Atlantic, these trends could be explained by the warming of this ocean since the 1970s.
EDITOR A. CastellarinASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Viglione 相似文献
136.
137.
Analysis of the historical records of Etnas eruptive activity for the past three centuries shows that, after the large 1669 eruption, a period of about 60 years of low-level activity followed. Starting from 1727, explosive activity (strombolian, lava fountaining and subplinian) at the summit crater increased exponentially to the present day. Since 1763, the frequency of flank eruptions also increased and this value remained high until 1960; afterward it further increased sharply. In fact, the number of summit and flank eruptions between 1961 and 2003 was four times greater than that of the pre-1960 period. This long-term trend of escalating activity rules out a pattern of cyclic behaviour of the volcano. We propose instead that the 1670–2003 period most likely characterises a single eruptive cycle which began after the large 1669 eruption and which is still continuing.On the basis of the eruptive style, two distinct types of flank eruptions are recognised: Class A and Class B. Class A eruptions are mostly effusive with associated weak strombolian activity; Class B eruptions are characterised by effusive activity accompanied by intense, long-lasting, strombolian and lava fountaining activity that produces copious tephra fallouts, as during the 2001 and 2002–2003 eruptions. Over the past three centuries, seven Class B eruptions have taken place with vents located mainly on the south-eastern flank, indicating that this sector of the volcano is a preferential zone for the intrusion of volatile-rich magma rising from the deeper region of the Etna plumbing system.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at Editorial responsibility: M. Carroll 相似文献
138.
139.
Marco Bertolino Barbara Calcinai Riccardo Cattaneo‐Vietti Carlo Cerrano Anna Lafratta Maurizio Pansini Daniela Pica Giorgio Bavestrello 《Marine Ecology》2014,35(2):149-158
The Mediterranean coralligenous substratum is a hard bottom of biogenic origin, mainly composed of calcareous algae, growing in dim light conditions. Sponges are among of the most representative taxa of the coralligenous assemblages, with more than 300 recorded species of different habits: massive, erect, boring and insinuating. When sponges die, their siliceous spicules remain trapped in the biogenic concretion, offering the opportunity to describe the coralligenous spongofauna over a very long span of time, virtually dating back to a large part of the Holocene period. The data reported here were obtained from core samples collected from four coralligenous concretions. Each block was collected in a different locality of the Ligurian Sea: Santo Stefano Shoals, Bogliasco, Punta del Faro (Portofino Promontory) and Punta Manara. Radiocarbon age determinations indicate for these conglomerates a maximal age between 1600 and 3100 years. The spicules trapped in the cores show deep dissolution marks in the form of circular holes on their surface or present an enlargement of the axial canal. However, their original shape, generally intact, suggests the absence of mechanical injuries and allows a tentative identification at the species level. The analysis of these old spicules reveals an ancient sponge assemblage composed of 30 recognisable species. This indicates that almost one half of the sponge community today settled on coralligenous substrata has been present in the conglomerates for their entire existence. 相似文献
140.
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Thailand 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
Teraphan Ornthammarath Pennung Warnitchai Kawin Worakanchana Saeed Zaman Ragnar Sigbj?rnsson Carlo Giovanni Lai 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2011,9(2):367-394
A set of probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Thailand has been derived using procedures developed for the latest US National
Seismic Hazard Maps. In contrast to earlier hazard maps for this region, which are mostly computed using seismic source zone
delineations, the presented maps are based on the combination of smoothed gridded seismicity, crustal-fault, and subduction
source models. Thailand’s composite earthquake catalogue is revisited and expanded, covering a study area limited by 0°–30°N
Latitude and 88°–110°E Longitude and the instrumental period from 1912 to 2007. The long-term slip rates and estimates of
earthquake size from paleoseismological studies are incorporated through a crustal fault source model. Furthermore, the subduction
source model is used to model the megathrust Sunda subduction zones, with variable characteristics along the strike of the
faults. Epistemic uncertainty is taken into consideration by the logic tree framework incorporating basic quantities, such
as different source modelling, maximum cut-off magnitudes and ground motion prediction equations. The ground motion hazard
map is presented over a 10 km grid in terms of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 0.2, 1.0, and 2.0 undamped
natural periods and a 5% critical damping ratio for 10 and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. The presented maps
give expected ground motions that are based on more extensive data sources than applied in the development of previous maps.
The main findings are that northern and western Thailand are subjected to the highest hazard. The largest contributors to
short- and long-period ground motion hazard in the Bangkok region are from the nearby active faults and Sunda subduction zones,
respectively. 相似文献