Responding to change: Using scenarios to understand how socioeconomic factors may influence amplifying or dampening exploitation feedbacks among Tanzanian fishers

Environmental change often requires societies to adapt. In some instances, these adaptations can create feedbacks that amplify the change. Alternatively, other adaptations may dampen the change. We used semi-structured interviews with 240 fishers from nine Tanzanian coastal communities to explore responses to four hypothetical scenarios of increasingly severe declines in their average catch (10%, 20%, 30% and 50%). Overall, a higher proportion of fishers said they would respond to decline using amplifying adaptations (such as fishing harder) than dampening adaptations (such as reducing effort), particularly in the scenarios with lower levels of decline. We used a redundancy analysis to explore whether certain types of responses were related to the fishers’ socioeconomic characteristics. Fishers that would employ amplifying responses had greater economic wealth but lacked options. Fishers who would adopt dampening responses possessed characteristics associated with having livelihood options. Fishers who would adopt neither amplifying nor dampening responses were less likely to belong to community groups and sold the largest proportion of their catch. This study provides novel contributions by differentiating aspects of adaptive capacity that will amplify versus dampen environmental change and by highlighting what the resource users’ themselves say regarding responding to environmental change. Although direct policy application is limited by the study's hypothetical scenario nature, it provides a good beginning to incorporating resource users’ voices into such policy discussions.     

Coda-Q before and after the 1986 Andreanof Islands earthquake

Coda-Q values before and after the May 7, 1986 Andreanof Islands earthquake in the central Aleutian subduction zone were calculated from microearthquake seismograms on the basis of Aki's single backscattering model. Digital waveforms from 329 microeathquakes in 5.4 years before the mainshock and 40 aftershocks recorded by 11 stations of the Central Aleutians Seismic Network were utilized. Before the mainshock, coda-Q in the rupture zone west of the mainshock epicenter was 15% higher than theQ outside the rupture zone to the west. A lowQ in the region east of the mainshock epicenter is inferred, but lacks solid evidence. The highQ region accords with the part of the rupture zone where most seismic moment was released. During approximately two months after the mainshock, coda-Q in the rupture zone decreased about 10%. PrecursoryQ changes were not found in the 5.4 years before the mainshock. It is deduced that a coda-Q precursor, if it existed, was of small magnitude (<10%), or its duration was either shorter than one year or longer than four years.     

Research Note: Experimental measurements of Q‐contrast reflections

While seismic reflection amplitudes are generally determined by real acoustical impedance contrasts, there has been recent interest in reflections due to contrasts in seismic‐Q. Herein we compare theoretical and modelled seismic reflection amplitudes for two different cases of material contrasts. In case A, we examine reflections from material interfaces that have a large contrast in real‐valued impedance () with virtually no contrast in seismic‐Q. In case B, we examine reflections from material interfaces that have virtually no contrast in but that have very large seismic‐Q contrasts. The complex‐valued reflection coefficient formula predicts non‐zero seismic reflection amplitudes for both cases. We choose physical materials that typify the physics of both case A and case B. Physical modelling experiments show significantly large reflections for both cases – with the reflections in the two cases being phase shifted with respect to each other, as predicted theoretically. While these modelling experiments show the existence of reflections that are predicted by theory, there are still intriguing questions regarding the size of the Q‐contrast reflections, the existence of large Q‐contrast reflections in reservoir rocks and the possible application of Q‐reflection analysis to viscosity estimation in heavy oilfields.     

Analyzing spatial ecological data using linear regression and wavelet analysis

Spatial (two-dimensional) distributions in ecology are often influenced by spatial autocorrelation. In standard regression models, however, observations are assumed to be statistically independent. In this paper we present an alternative to other methods that allow for autocorrelation. We show that the theory of wavelets provides an efficient method to remove autocorrelations in regression models using data sampled on a regular grid. Wavelets are particularly suitable for data analysis without any prior knowledge of the underlying correlation structure. We illustrate our new method, called wavelet-revised model, by applying it to multiple regression for both normal linear models and logistic regression. Results are presented for computationally simulated data and real ecological data (distribution of species richness and distribution of the plant species Dianthus carthusianorum throughout Germany). These results are compared to those of generalized linear models and models based on generalized estimating equations. We recommend wavelet-revised models, in particular, as a method for logistic regression using large datasets.     

Phase difference analysis of temperature and vegetation phenology for beech forest: a wavelet approach

Temporal shifts in phenology or vegetation period of plants are seen as indicators of global warming with potentially severe impacts on ecosystem functioning. In spite of increasing knowledge on drivers, it is of utmost importance to disentangle the relationship between air temperatures, phenological events, potential temporal lags (phase shifts) and time scale for certain plant species. Assessing the phase shifts as well as the scale-dependent relationship between temperature and vegetation phenology requires the development of a nonlinear temporal model. Therefore, we use wavelet analysis and present a framework for identifying scale-dependent cross-phase coupling of bivariate time series. It allows the calculation of (a) scale-dependent decompositions of time series, (b) phase shifts of seasonal components in relation to the annual cycle, and (c) inter-annual phase differences between seasonal phases of different time series. The model is applied to air temperature data and remote sensing phenology data of a beech forest in Germany. Our study reveals that certain seasonal changes in amplitude and phase with respect to the normal annual rhythm of temperature and beech phenology are coupled time-delayed components, which are characterized by a time shift of about one year.     

南加州地壳的伴随层析成像

使用基于伴随方法的反演策略,研制出了南加州地壳的三维地震模型。该模型涉及到16次层析成像迭代,需要6800次波场模拟和总计80万个中心处理单位小时。与南加州地震中心给出的最初三维模型比较,该新的地壳模型揭示了更强的非均匀性,包括&#177;30%的局部变化。模型说明了诸如沉积盆地和横跨断层的构造反差的浅部特征。也揭示了深部的地壳特征,从而帮助重建诸如俯冲捕获洋壳碎块的南加州构造。新模型有助于对地震危险性做出更实际而准确的评估。     

Tsunami hazard and exposure on the global scale

In the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a large increase in the activity of tsunami hazard and risk mapping is observed. Most of these are site-specific studies with detailed modelling of the run-up locally. However, fewer studies exist on the regional and global scale. Therefore, tsunamis have been omitted in previous global studies comparing different natural hazards. Here, we present a first global tsunami hazard and population exposure study. A key topic is the development of a simple and robust method for obtaining reasonable estimates of the maximum water level during tsunami inundation. This method is mainly based on plane wave linear hydrostatic transect simulations, and validation against results from a standard run-up model is given. The global hazard study is scenario based, focusing on tsunamis caused by megathrust earthquakes only, as the largest events will often contribute more to the risk than the smaller events. Tsunamis caused by non-seismic sources are omitted. Hazard maps are implemented by conducting a number of tsunami scenario simulations supplemented with findings from literature. The maps are further used to quantify the number of people exposed to tsunamis using the Landscan population data set. Because of the large geographical extents, quantifying the tsunami hazard assessment is focusing on overall trends.     

A New Rapid Method for Measuring the Vertical Head Profile

This study describes a new technique for measuring the head profile in a geologic formation. The technique provides rapid, low cost information on the depth of water‐producing zones and aquitards in heterogeneous aquifers, yielding estimates of hydraulic heads in each zone while identifying any potential for cross contamination between zones. The measurements can be performed in a typical borehole in just a few hours. The procedure uses both the continuous transmissivity profile obtained by the installation (eversion) of a flexible borehole liner into an open borehole and the subsequent removal (inversion) of the same liner from the borehole. The method is possible because of the continuous transmissivity profile (T profile described by Keller et al. 2014) obtained by measuring the rate of liner eversion under a constant driving head. The hydraulic heads of producing zones are measured using the reverse head profile (RHP) method (patent no. 9,008,971) based on a stepwise inversion of the borehole liner. As each interval of the borehole is uncovered by inversion of the liner, the head beneath the liner is allowed to equilibrate to a steady‐state value. The individual hydraulic heads contributing to each measurement are calculated using the measured transmissivity for each zone. Application of the RHP method to a sedimentary bedrock borehole in New Jersey verified that it reproduced the head distribution obtained the same day in the same borehole instrumented with a multilevel sampling system.