Impact of reach geometry on stream channel sensitivity to extreme floods

Predicting spatial and temporal variations in bank erosion due to extreme floods presents a long‐standing challenge in geomorphology. We develop two methodologies for rapid, regional‐scale assessments of stream reaches susceptible to channel widening. The first proposes that channel widening occurs when unit stream power exceeds a critical threshold (300 W/m²). The second is motivated by the observation that widening often occurs at channel bends. We introduce a new metric, the bend stress parameter, which is proportional to the centripetal force exerted on a concave bank. We propose that high centripetal forces generate locally high bank shear forces and enhance channel bank erosion. We test both metrics using the geomorphic signature of Tropical Storm Irene (2011) on the White and the Saxtons Rivers, Vermont. Specifically, we test if reaches where significant channel widening occurred during Irene required one or both metrics to exceed threshold values. We observe two distinct styles of channel widening. Where unit stream power and bend stress parameter are high, widening is usually due to bank retreat. Elsewhere widening is usually due to the stripping of the upstream end of mid‐channel islands. Excluding widening associated with the stripping of the heads of mid‐channel islands, almost all the widening (> 98%) occurred along reaches identified as susceptible to widening. The combined metrics identify up to one‐quarter of the reaches lacking susceptibility to channel widening. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Plastic buckling of ring-stiffened conical shells under external hydrostatic pressure

The paper describes experimental tests carried out on three ring-stiffened cones that were tested to destruction under external hydrostatic pressure. The cones were carefully machined from EN1A Steel. All three cones failed by plastic non-symmetric bifurcation buckling in a mode commonly known as general instability. In this mode the entire ring-shell combination buckles bodily.The paper also provides a design chart using the results obtained from these three vessels, together with the results of six other vessels obtained from other tests. The design chart allows the possibility of obtaining a plastic knock down factor, so that the theoretical buckling pressures, based on elastic theory, can be divided by the plastic knockdown factor, to give the predicted buckling pressure. This method can also be used for the design of full-scale vessels.     

Development and validation of a finite element morphological model for shallow water basins

Recognising the importance of understanding sediment dynamics to evaluate the status of a coastal lagoon environment, this work has been focused on the investigation of the hydrodynamic and sediment transport processes occurring in such basins. In order to describe the lagoon system, a modelling approach combining hydrodynamics, waves and sediment dynamics has been developed. The framework of the numerical model consists of a finite element hydrodynamic model, a third generation finite element spectral wave model and a sediment transport and morphodynamic model for both cohesive and non-cohesive sediments. The model adopts the finite element technique for spatial integration, which has the advantage to describe more accurately complicated bathymetry and irregular boundaries for shallow water areas. The developed model has been applied to test cases and to a very shallow tidal lagoon, the Venice Lagoon, Italy. Numerical results show good agreement with water level, waves and turbidity measurements collected in several monitoring stations inside the Lagoon of Venice. Such a model represents an indispensable tool in analysing coastal problems and assessing morphological impacts of human interference.     

Diluvialgeologie und Klima

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Analyzing spatial ecological data using linear regression and wavelet analysis

Spatial (two-dimensional) distributions in ecology are often influenced by spatial autocorrelation. In standard regression models, however, observations are assumed to be statistically independent. In this paper we present an alternative to other methods that allow for autocorrelation. We show that the theory of wavelets provides an efficient method to remove autocorrelations in regression models using data sampled on a regular grid. Wavelets are particularly suitable for data analysis without any prior knowledge of the underlying correlation structure. We illustrate our new method, called wavelet-revised model, by applying it to multiple regression for both normal linear models and logistic regression. Results are presented for computationally simulated data and real ecological data (distribution of species richness and distribution of the plant species Dianthus carthusianorum throughout Germany). These results are compared to those of generalized linear models and models based on generalized estimating equations. We recommend wavelet-revised models, in particular, as a method for logistic regression using large datasets.     

Probabilistic data integration for characterization of spatial distribution of residual LNAPL

The spatial distribution of residual light non-aqueous phase liquid (LNAPL) is an important factor in reactive solute transport modeling studies. There is great uncertainty associated with both the areal limits of LNAPL source zones and smaller scale variability within the areal limits. A statistical approach is proposed to construct a probabilistic model for the spatial distribution of residual NAPL and it is applied to a site characterized by ultra-violet-induced-cone-penetration testing (CPT–UVIF). The uncertainty in areal limits is explicitly addressed by a novel distance function (DF) approach. In modeling the small-scale variability within the areal limits, the CPT–UVIF data are used as primary source of information, while soil texture and distance to water table are treated as secondary data. Two widely used geostatistical techniques are applied for the data integration, namely sequential indicator simulation with locally varying means (SIS–LVM) and Bayesian updating (BU). A close match between the calibrated uncertainty band (UB) and the target probabilities shows the performance of the proposed DF technique in characterization of uncertainty in the areal limits. A cross-validation study also shows that the integration of the secondary data sources substantially improves the prediction of contaminated and uncontaminated locations and that the SIS–LVM algorithm gives a more accurate prediction of residual NAPL contamination. The proposed DF approach is useful in modeling the areal limits of the non-stationary continuous or categorical random variables, and in providing a prior probability map for source zone sizes to be used in Monte Carlo simulations of contaminant transport or Monte Carlo type inverse modeling studies.