Grid resolution study of ground water flow and transport

Three-dimensional grids representing a heterogeneous, ground water system are generated at 10 different resolutions in support of a site-scale flow and transport modeling effort. These grids represent hydrostratigraphy near Yucca Mountain, Nevada, consisting of 18 stratigraphic units with contrasting fluid flow and transport properties. The grid generation method allows the stratigraphy to be modeled by numerical grids of different resolution so that comparison studies can be performed to test for grid quality and determine the resolution required to resolve geologic structure and physical processes such as fluid flow and solute transport. The process of generating numerical grids with appropriate property distributions from geologic conceptual models is automated, thus making the entire process easy to implement with fewer user-induced errors. The series of grids of various resolutions are used to assess the level at which increasing resolution no longer influences the flow and solute transport results. Grid resolution is found to be a critical issue for ground water flow and solute transport. The resolution required in a particular instance is a function of the feature size of the model, the intrinsic properties of materials, the specific physics of the problem, and boundary conditions. The asymptotic nature of results related to flow and transport indicate that for a hydrologic model of the heterogeneous hydrostratigraphy under Yucca Mountain, a horizontal grid spacing of 600 m and vertical grid spacing of 40 m resolve the hydrostratigraphic model with sufficient precision to accurately model the hypothetical flow and solute transport to within 5% of the value that would be obtained with much higher resolution.     

Comparison of surface and borehole locations of induced seismicity

Monitoring of induced microseismic events has become an important tool in hydraulic fracture diagnostics and understanding fractured reservoirs in general. We compare microseismic event and their uncertainties using data sets obtained with surface and downhole arrays of receivers. We first model the uncertainties to understand the effect of different acquisition geometries on location accuracy. For a vertical array of receivers in a single monitoring borehole, we find that the largest part of the final location uncertainty is related to estimation of the backazimuth. This is followed by uncertainty in the vertical position and radial distance from the receivers. For surface monitoring, the largest uncertainty lies in the vertical position due to the use of only a single phase (usually P‐wave) in the estimation of the event location. In surface monitoring results, lateral positions are estimated robustly and are not sensitive to the velocity model. In this case study, we compare event location solutions from two catalogues of microseismic events; one from a downhole array and the second from a surface array of 1C geophone. Our results show that origin time can be reliably used to find matching events between the downhole and surface catalogues. The locations of the corresponding events display a systematic shift consistent with a poorly calibrated velocity model for downhole dataset. For this case study, locations derived from surface monitoring have less scatter in both vertical and horizontal directions.     

Linear Time-Invariant Compensation of Cup Anemometer and Vane Inertia

We propose a method to compensate for the phase lag and the amplitudeattenuation in the cup anemometer signal. These two effects, caused by theinstrument's inertia, are the major flaws of the cup anemometer in additionto over-speeding. Since the instrument's response is invariant in wavenumber (not frequency) representation, we transform the signals to becompensated from the time domain to the spatial domain by using Taylor'shypothesis. In the spatial domain we apply a linear time-invariant filterto eliminate the phase lag and the amplitude attenuation. The proposedprocedure improves instrument performance down to spatial scales equal toor smaller than the distance constant of the anemometer. The method for cupanemometer compensation is presented in detail and later adapted for vanes.     

Responding to change: Using scenarios to understand how socioeconomic factors may influence amplifying or dampening exploitation feedbacks among Tanzanian fishers

Environmental change often requires societies to adapt. In some instances, these adaptations can create feedbacks that amplify the change. Alternatively, other adaptations may dampen the change. We used semi-structured interviews with 240 fishers from nine Tanzanian coastal communities to explore responses to four hypothetical scenarios of increasingly severe declines in their average catch (10%, 20%, 30% and 50%). Overall, a higher proportion of fishers said they would respond to decline using amplifying adaptations (such as fishing harder) than dampening adaptations (such as reducing effort), particularly in the scenarios with lower levels of decline. We used a redundancy analysis to explore whether certain types of responses were related to the fishers’ socioeconomic characteristics. Fishers that would employ amplifying responses had greater economic wealth but lacked options. Fishers who would adopt dampening responses possessed characteristics associated with having livelihood options. Fishers who would adopt neither amplifying nor dampening responses were less likely to belong to community groups and sold the largest proportion of their catch. This study provides novel contributions by differentiating aspects of adaptive capacity that will amplify versus dampen environmental change and by highlighting what the resource users’ themselves say regarding responding to environmental change. Although direct policy application is limited by the study's hypothetical scenario nature, it provides a good beginning to incorporating resource users’ voices into such policy discussions.     

Coda-Q before and after the 1986 Andreanof Islands earthquake

Coda-Q values before and after the May 7, 1986 Andreanof Islands earthquake in the central Aleutian subduction zone were calculated from microearthquake seismograms on the basis of Aki's single backscattering model. Digital waveforms from 329 microeathquakes in 5.4 years before the mainshock and 40 aftershocks recorded by 11 stations of the Central Aleutians Seismic Network were utilized. Before the mainshock, coda-Q in the rupture zone west of the mainshock epicenter was 15% higher than theQ outside the rupture zone to the west. A lowQ in the region east of the mainshock epicenter is inferred, but lacks solid evidence. The highQ region accords with the part of the rupture zone where most seismic moment was released. During approximately two months after the mainshock, coda-Q in the rupture zone decreased about 10%. PrecursoryQ changes were not found in the 5.4 years before the mainshock. It is deduced that a coda-Q precursor, if it existed, was of small magnitude (<10%), or its duration was either shorter than one year or longer than four years.     

Personality type differences between Ph.D. climate researchers and the general public: implications for effective communication

Effectively communicating the complexity of climate change to the public is an important goal for the climate change research community, particularly for those of us who receive public funds. The challenge of communicating the science of climate change will be reduced if climate change researchers consider the links between personality types, communication tendencies and learning preferences. Jungian personality type is one of many factors related to an individual’s preferred style of taking in and processing information, i.e., preferred communication style. In this paper, we demonstrate that the Jungian personality type profile of interdisciplinary, early career climate researchers is significantly different from that of the general population in the United States. In particular, Ph.D. climate researchers tend towards Intuition and focus on theories and the “big picture”, while the U.S. general population tends towards Sensing and focuses on concrete examples and experience. There are other differences as well in the way the general public as a group prefers to take in information, make decisions, and deal with the outer world, compared with the average interdisciplinary climate scientist. These differences have important implications for communication between these two groups. We suggest that climate researchers will be more effective in conveying their messages if they are aware of their own personality type and potential differences in preferred learning and communication styles between themselves and the general public (and other specific audiences), and use this knowledge to more effectively target their audience.     

Development of airborne oil thickness measurements

A laboratory sensor has now been developed to measure the absolute thickness of oil on water slicks. This prototype oil slick thickness measurement system is known as the laser-ultrasonic remote sensing of oil thickness (LURSOT) sensor. This laser opto-acoustic sensor is the initial step in the ultimate goal of providing an airborne sensor with the ability to remotely measure oil-on-water slick thickness. The LURSOT sensor employs three lasers to produce and measure the time-of-flight of ultrasonic waves in oil and hence provide a direct measurement of oil slick thickness. The successful application of this technology to the measurement of oil slick thickness will benefit the scientific community as a whole by providing information about the dynamics of oil slick spreading and the spill responder by providing a measurement of the effectiveness of spill countermeasures such as dispersant application and in situ burning.

This paper will provide a review of early developments and discuss the current state-of-the-art in the field of oil slick thickness measurement.