青藏高原区域气候变化及其差异性研究

利用1961—2007年青藏高原66个气象台站气温和降水量资料,通过典型气候分区,系统研究了近47年来青藏高原气温、降水量等气候因子时空演变规律,揭示了青藏高原不同区域气候变化的差异性。研究表明:近47年来,青藏高原的气候呈现出显著增暖趋势,年平均气温以0.37℃/10a的速率上升,气候变暖在夜间要较日间明显。冬季较其他季节明显,2月气温由冷向暖的转变最为显著,8月最不显著,且在某些区域有变冷迹象;高原边缘地区气候变暖要明显于高原腹地,青海北部区特别是柴达木盆地是青藏高原气候变化的敏感区。降水量总体表现出增多态势,气候倾向率达9.1mm/10a,但区域性差异较为明显,藏东南川西区是青藏高原降水量增多最显著的地区;12月至次年5月即冬春季整个青藏高原降水量随着气候变暖而增多,7月和9月黄河上游区1987年后干旱化趋势明显。     

Regional features of precipitation over Asia and summer extreme precipitation over Southeast Asia and their associations with atmospheric–oceanic conditions

The variations of both total and extreme precipitations over Asia are characterized by large regional features and seasonality. Extreme precipitation mainly occurs in summer and then in autumn over South Asia but it is a prominent phenomenon in all seasons over Southeast Asia. It explains above 40% of the total precipitation in winter over India, while the ratio of extreme precipitation to total precipitation is 30% or smaller in all seasons over southern-central China. Over Southeast Asia, the largest ratio appears in winter. The extreme precipitation over Southeast Asia (EPSEA) exhibits significant positive trends in all seasons except autumn. The long-term increase in summer EPSEA is associated with significant surface warming over extratropical Asia and the Indo-Pacific oceans and linked to a large-scale anomalous cyclonic pattern over Southeast Asia. An increase in de-trended summer EPSEA is associated with less significant surface warming. However, it is still clearly linked to an anomalous cyclonic pattern over Southeast Asia, contributed by intensifications of monsoon flow from the west, trade wind from the east, and cross-equatorial flow over Indonesia. The antecedent features of increased summer EPSEA include an overall warming over the tropical–subtropical northern hemisphere and an anomalous cyclonic pattern over Southeast Asia in winter and spring. When the large-scale Asian monsoon (measured by the Webster-Yang monsoon index) or the South Asian monsoon is strong, summer extreme precipitation mainly increases over tropical Asia. When monsoon is strong over Southeast Asia or East Asia, extreme precipitation increases over Southeast Asia and decreases over East Asia. A strong summer monsoon over Southeast Asia or East Asia is also followed by decreased autumn extreme precipitation over Southeast Asia.     

Dynamic responses of a poroelastic half‐space from moving trains caused by vertical track irregularities

The vibrations of railway tracks on a poroelastic half‐space generated by moving trains are investigated through a vehicle–track–ground coupling model. The theoretical model incorporates a vehicle, a track, and a fully saturated poroelastic half‐space soil medium. The source of vibration excitation is divided into two components: the quasi‐static loads and the dynamic loads. The quasi‐static loads are related to the static component of the axle loads, whereas the dynamic loads are due to the dynamic wheel–rail interaction. A linear Hertizian contact spring is introduced between each wheelset and the rail to consider the dynamic loads. Biot's dynamic theory is used to characterize the poroelastic half‐space soil medium. Using the Fourier transform, the governing equations for the track–ground system are solved and the numerical results are presented for a single axle vehicle model. The different dynamic characteristics of the elastic soil medium and the saturated poroelastic medium are investigated. In addition, the different roles of the moving axle loads and the roughness‐induced dynamic loads are identified. It is concluded that the vibration level of the free field off the track predicted by the poroelastic soil medium is smaller than that predicted by the elastic soil medium for vehicle speed below the Rayleigh wave speed of the poroelastic half‐space, whereas it is larger for vehicle speed above the Rayleigh wave speed. The dynamic loads play an important role in the dynamic responses of the track–ground system. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Black hole shadow image and visibility analysis of Sagittarius A*

The compact dark objects with very large masses residing at the centres of galaxies are believed to be black holes. Due to the gravitational lensing effect, they would cast a shadow larger than their horizon size over the background; the shape and size of this shadow can be calculated. For the supermassive black hole candidate Sgr A*, this shadow spans an angular size of about 50 μas, which is under the resolution attainable with the current astronomical instruments. Such a shadow image of Sgr A* will be observable at about 1 mm wavelength, considering the scatter broadening by the interstellar medium. By simulating the black hole shadow image of Sgr A* with the radiatively inefficient accretion flow model, we demonstrate that analysing the properties of the visibility function can help us determine some parameters of the black hole configuration, which is instructive for the submillimetre Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations of Sgr A* to be made in the near future.     

Three‐dimensional steady‐state response of a railway system on layered half‐space soil medium subjected to a moving train

The paper presents a three‐dimensional study on the steady‐state response of a track system and layered half‐space soil medium subjected to the load induced by the passages of a moving train with the substructure method. Practically, due to the ground water table being several meters beneath the ground surface, the soil profile can be divided into two layers: the upper layer modeled by an elastic medium and the lower layer by a fully saturated poroelastic medium governed by Biot's theory. In the meanwhile, the rails are regarded as an infinitely long Euler beam, and the sleepers are represented by a continuous mass. The effect of the ballast is accounted for by introducing the Cosserat model for granular medium, and the train is described by a series of moving axle point loads, depending on the geometry of the train. The influences of the thickness, the mass and the rigidity of the elastic layer and the mass of the ballast on rail's displacement responses are carefully investigated. Numerical results show that the influences of these parameters are significant for high train velocity, while vanishes for low velocity. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

测井储集层快速自动评价在东海西湖凹陷中的应用

结合东海西湖凹陷油气勘探需要，在现场提出自动评价储集层系统，应用人工智能技术，识别储集层和判断含油、气储集层。模拟计算油气储集层产能。     

Transmission of Elastic P-waves across Single Fractures with a Nonlinear Normal Deformational Behavior

Summary This paper presents a theoretical study on normally incident elastic P-wave transmission across single dry fractures with a nonlinear normal deformational behavior. The effects of nonlinear fracture normal behavior on P-wave transmission are examined without the mixture of fracture shear behavior. The linear displacement discontinuity model for wave propagation across fractures is extended to a nonlinear model – the hyperbolic elastic model (BB model). Numeric solutions of magnitudes of transmission (|T _non|) and reflection (|R _non|) coefficients, for normally incident P-wave transmission across the nonlinear deformable fractures, are obtained and related to the closure behavior of fractures. Parametric studies are conducted to acquire an insight into the effects of the nonlinear fracture normal deformation on P-wave transmission, in terms of initial normal stiffness and the ratio of current maximum closure to maximum allowable closure of the fractures, as well as the incident wave amplitude and frequency. Comparisons between the linear and nonlinear models are presented. It is shown that, |T _lin| and |R _lin| for the linear model are special solutions of |T _non| and |R _non| for the nonlinear model, when the incident wave amplitude is so low that the current maximum closure of fracture incurred during the wave transmission is much smaller, relative to the maximum allowable closure. In addition, the nonlinear fracture behavior gives rise to a phenomenon of higher harmonics during the wave transmission across the fracture. The higher harmonics contribute to the increase of |T _non| from |T _lin|.     

多普勒速度图暴雨判据和短时预报工具研究

对3824-C波段全相参多普勒天气雷达1995-1999年径向速度场资料中逆风区进行统计分析，认为近距离逆风区可成为暴雨短时预报的一个有参考价值的判据，并给出人机交互识别逆风区工具的设计和实现方法。     

地缘关系与世界经济地理学科建设

地缘关系是国际关系的重要表现形式，地缘政治，尤其地缘经济对当代世界经济影响很大，也影响世界经济地理学科的发展。本文着重阐述了地缘经济学与世界经济地理学的关系及其互为影响作用，进而论述了世界经济地理学科建设的任务。