A method for tsunami risk assessment: a case study for Kamakura,Japan

This paper presents a methodology for tsunami risk assessment, which was applied to a case study in Kamakura, Japan. This methodology was developed in order to evaluate the effectiveness of a risk-reducing system against such hazards, also aiming to demonstrate that a risk assessment is possible for these episodic events. The tsunami risk assessment follows these general steps: (1) determination of the probability of flooding, (2) calculation of flood scenarios, (3) assessment of the consequences and (4) integration into a risk number or graph. The probability of flooding was approximated based on the data provided by local institutes, and the flood scenarios were modeled in 1D using the Simulating WAves till SHore model. Results showed that a tsunami in Kamakura can result in thousands of casualties. Interventions such as improvements in evacuation systems, which would directly reduce the number of casualties, would have a large influence in risk reduction. Although this method has its limits and constraints, it illustrates the value it can add to existing tsunami risk management in Japan.     

Phosphorus Speciation and Sedimentary Fluxes in Hypersaline Sediments of the Guerrero Negro Salt Evaporation Area,Baja California Sur,Mexico

In the past several decades, the techniques used to discern the different sedimentary fractions of P have been refined. This has allowed for a better understanding of P burial of the different P fractions and diagenetic reactions and, ultimately, the constraining of P residence time in the oceans. P sequential extraction was performed on eight sediment cores (between 16 and 24 cm deep) collected along a salinity gradient from the Ojo de Liebre Lagoon and the salt evaporation saltern of Guerrero Negro, Baja California Sur, Mexico in order to determine, under purely diagenetic conditions (in the absence of anthropogenic activities and biogenic sediment reworking), the fractionation and flux of P to the sediments. The majority of P was found in the authigenic fraction (37 ± 5.4% to 53 ± 8.9%), with P associated to organic matter comprising the overall smallest percentage (0.25 ± 0.43% to 21 ± 6.0%) relative to total P. The average flux of total P to the sediments for all the sites was found to be (451 ± 127) × 10⁻⁴ mol m⁻² year⁻¹, up to several orders of magnitude greater than those found in other studies. It is concluded that P is most likely transformed from P associated to organic matter to the authigenic mineral phase and that P was retained in the sediments in its mineral form rather than in reactive forms. This particular study area has the ability to retain large quantities of P in the sediments.     

Field validation of radon monitoring as a screening methodology for NAPL-contaminated sites

Screening methodologies aim at improving knowledge about subsurface contamination processes before expensive intrusive operations, i.e. drilling and core-sampling, well installation and development, sampling of groundwater and free-phase product, are implemented. Blind field tests carried out at a hydrocarbon storage and distribution center in NE Spain suggest that Rn monitoring can be effectively used to locate the boundaries of subsurface accumulations of NAPLs. Sixty seven measurements of Rn in soil air were performed with a SARAD RTM 2100 current-ionization alpha-particle spectrometer following a 10 m square grid. Reductions of ²²²Rn concentration above a pool of LNAPL due to the preferential partition of Rn into the organic phase were spatially analyzed and resolved to yield the surface contour of the NAPL source zone. This surface trace of the source zone agreed well with the extent and situation inferred from measurements of free-phase thickness taken at eight monitoring wells at the site. Moreover, the good repeatability (as measured by replicate measurements at the same sampling point) and spatial resolution of the technique suggest that the boundaries of the plume can be delineated at the sub-decametre level.     

Rapid bottom-water circulation changes during the last glacial cycle in the coastal low-latitude NE Atlantic

Previous paleoceanographic studies along the NW African margin focused on the dynamics of surface and intermediate waters, whereas little attention has been devoted to deep-water masses. Currently, these deep waters consist mainly of North Atlantic Deep Waters as part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, this configuration was altered during periods of AMOC collapse. We present a high-resolution reconstruction of bottom-water ventilation and current evolution off Mauritania from the last glacial maximum into the early Holocene. Applying redox proxies (Mo, U and Mn) measured on sediments from off Mauritania, we describe changes in deep-water oxygenation and we infer the evolution of deep-water conditions during millennial-scale climate/oceanographic events in the area. The second half of Heinrich Event 1 and the Younger Dryas were recognized as periods of reduced ventilation, coinciding with events of AMOC reduction. We propose that these weakening circulation events induced deficient deep-water oxygenation in the Mauritanian upwelling region, which together with increased productivity promoted reducing conditions and enhanced organic-matter preservation. This is the first time the effect of AMOC collapse in the area is described at high resolution, broadening the knowledge on basin-wide oceanographic changes associated with rapid climate variability during the last deglaciation.     

Complex geophysical wake flows

Idealized studies of island wakes often use a cylinder-like island to generate the wake, whereas most realistic studies use a close representation of the oceanic bathymetry immersed in a complex representation of the “ambient” geophysical flows. Here, a system of multiple islands was placed into numerical and experimental channels, in order to focus on the complexity of the archipelago wake, including (a) the influence of small neighboring islands and (b) the role of the island-shelf. The numerical geostrophic and stratified channel was built using a three-dimensional primitive equation model, considering a realistic representation of the Madeira archipelago bathymetry, with prescribed initial and boundary conditions. Results from the simulations show that the neighboring islands alter the near-field wake. Small eddies generated by the neighboring islands lead to destabilization of the shear layers of the larger island. Laboratory experiments carried out in the Coriolis rotating tank corroborated this near-field disruptive mechanism. The neighboring island perturbation effect was present whatever the direction of the incoming flow, but under different regimes. North–south wakes produced geostrophic eddies (≥ R _d), whereas west–east wakes produced (exclusively) ageostrophic submesoscale eddies (< < R _d) which traveled offshore with wave-like motion. The archipelago shelf contributed to the asymmetric vertical migration of oceanic vorticity. Cyclonic vorticity dominated the surface dynamics, whereas anticyclonic circulation prevailed at the bottom part of the linearly stratified upper layer. This study identifies several likely wake scenarios induced by the Madeira archipelago, and may serve as guide for future multiscale numerical studies and in situ campaigns.     

Equity implications of marketing ecosystem services in protected areas and rural communities: Case studies from Meso-America

This paper investigates the equity implications of marketing ecosystem services in protected areas and rural communities. We use a three-tiered equity framework to analyse four distinct efforts to commercialise watershed recharge and carbon dioxide fixation by forests in Meso-America. We show that project development and participation are strongly mediated by organisational networks, as well as existing rights of access over land and forest resources. We demonstrate that procedural fairness diverges strongly when initiatives are implemented in protected areas or in rural communities. While in the former reserve managers and intermediaries concentrate all decision-making power, initiatives working with rural communities are able to integrate more significantly service providers in management decisions. Marketing ecosystem services in protected areas contributes to reduce expenditure rates for protected area management, but also results in less equitable outcomes, as rural communities and forest resource users become excluded from receiving sustained development benefits. When ecosystem services are commercialised by rural farmers, payments do not cover opportunity costs but act as a significant incentive for participation in most cases. Ecosystem service providers also benefit from complementary project activities, such as forest management training and agricultural extension support. We argue that limited economic impact and existing inequities in decision-making and outcomes can be explained by problems of institutional design, in particular the inability of markets and payments for ecosystem services to account for context-related factors, such as property rights.     

Simplified procedure for the estimation of local inelastic deformation demands for seismic performance assessment of buildings

The implementation of performance‐based design and assessment procedures in seismic codes leads to the need for an accurate estimation of local component demands. According to Part 3 of Eurocode 8 safety checks should be always conducted in terms of plastic rotations, even when linear elastic methods of analysis are used. This paper demonstrates that linear analysis fails to predict inelastic deformation demands at the member level. Therefore, a simplified procedure that allows for the estimation of beam inelastic deformation demands using linear elastic methods of analysis in a simple and conservative way is presented herein. A number of moment‐resisting steel frames designed according to different criteria and exhibiting different column‐to‐beam strength ratios were analysed and used for the derivation of the proposed procedure. A comparative study between alternative methods of quantifying inelastic deformation demands using linear analysis is also carried out. The results obtained allow concluding about the efficiency and conservativeness of the proposed procedure which makes it attractive to be employed in engineering practice. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lahars risk at the Tacaná Volcano Complex (México–Guatemala) from numerical simulations and physical vulnerability analysis

Natural Hazards - The Nile River provides Egypt with most of its water resources. Medium- and long-rage forecasts of Nile flows at Aswan have been recognized as of significant importance to allow...