基于全球及区域气候模式的江苏省降水变化趋势预估

利用气象观测资料,8个全球耦合气候系统模式的集合平均以及区域气候模式(RegCM4)的结果,通过方差分析、相关分析、趋势分析、扰动法等方法对模式性能进行了评估,并对江苏省在未来RCP8.5高端排放情景下降水的变化趋势进行了预估。结果表明,在RCP8.5情景下,至2020、2030和2050年,全球模式模拟的江苏省年平均降水在未来有逐渐增加的趋势,线性增加率约为7 mm/(10 a)。至2050年,江苏省年平均降水量将增加2%左右;区域模式模拟的年平均降水在未来线性增加率为1.5 mm/(10 a),变化不显著。区域模式模拟的夏季降水在未来有所增加,最多可增加20%～30%,但增幅随时间逐渐减小;全球模式模拟的夏季降水比现在有所减少,至2050年,减少了大约10%。区域模式模拟的冬季降水在未来不同时间段均比现在有所减少,同现在相比,最多可减少30%～40%;而全球模式模拟的冬季降水在未来则是先减少,后增加,至2050年,比现在大约增加10%。对于不同季节,总体而言,南部地区降水量的变化较北部地区显著。对于极端降水事件来说,江苏省未来小雨日数将减少,而暴雨日数则微弱增加。但由于全球模式本身的性能、区域模式对全球模式的依赖性以及温室气体排放的不确定性使上述预估结果仍具有不确定性。     

基于城市规划的城市地下空间开发适宜性评价探讨

随着城市化进程的持续推进,城市地下空间开发利用的重要性日益凸显。但各城市地下空间资源开发存在盲目性,未能与城市规划要求充分对接,亟须构建面向城市地下空间开发的适宜性评价体系。本文阐述了城市规划与地下空间开发间的关系,提出在城市规划指导下进行地下空间开发的重要性。针对不同的城市类型,需要采取针对性的探测技术,评价地质、环境、资源和技术经济等方面,并根据评价结果划分开发适宜性等级。研究认为,在城市规划指导下,运用开发适宜性评价体系,可以实现地下空间的有序可持续利用。     

石煤钒矿成分分析标准物质的研制

石煤钒矿资源的开发和合理利用需要对其成分进行准确的分析测试和质量控制.目前,国内外尚未有石煤钒矿成分分析的标准物质,现有钒成分分析标准物质无论是其五氧化二钒含量,还是定值成分都无法满足我国对石煤钒矿勘查、开发和研究需要.本文对采自湖北省崇阳县小源冲钒矿、湖南省芷江县牛牯坪钒矿、湖南省古丈县岩头寨钒矿和湖南省凤凰县黑冲钒...     

Stable isotopes and chloride ion of precipitation events in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau,China

Stable isotopes and chloride ion of precipitation are ideal environmental tracers to explain and reveal the formation and evolution mechanisms of water bodies. It is crucial to investigate the stable isotopes and chloride in precipitation events in the northeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau(NETP) due to the limitation of available data. This study sampled each event of precipitation during the period from July 2018 to June 2019 and the monthly dustfall in the NETP to investigate the temporal changes of stable isotopes and chloride in precipitation, and to reveal the moisture source of precipitation over the NETP using a back trajectory model. Results showed that the δ2 H values of precipitation ranged from-183.51‰ to 17.75‰, and the δ18 O values ranged from-25.18‰ to 0.48‰. The slope of the Local Meteoric Water Line was slightly lower than 8 due to the effect of belowcloud secondary evaporation on the precipitation process. Most d-excess values were higher than 10‰ because moisture recycled from the continent and Qinghai Lake surface mixed with precipitation. The chloride in precipitation accounted for 86.5% of the annual total deposition mass of chloride(1329.64 mg/m2), indicating that precipitation was the main source of chloride in the NETP. The temperature and amount effects of stable isotope in the precipitation were obvious in the NETP. The precipitation was predominantly derived from the Westerly Circulation from September through May and the East Asian Monsoon from June to August, with precipitation amounts of 246.5 mm and 178.0 mm, respectively, indicating that the precipitation over the NETP brought by the Westerly Circulation was more than that brought by the East Asian Monsoon. The air mass over the NETP transited in late May and early September, and a slight change in transition period would mainly be related to the intensity of the East Asian Monsoon, which is strongly influenced by El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation. These results provide not only baseline data for hydrological and climatological studies of the NETP but also valuable insights into the hydrological process in the inland arid area of Asia.     

2007—2017年浙江省雷暴路径时空特征分析

基于浙江省ADTD二维闪电定位系统监测的近11 a(2007—2017)地闪数据,采用密度极大值快速搜索聚类算法和Kalman滤波算法实现对雷暴的识别及其路径的追踪,并探讨大范围雷暴过程的时空分布特征.结果表明:该方法能够有效对浙江省各类雷暴的识别追踪,共筛选出261条雷暴过程的路径,其存在明显的年变化和年际变化,年路...     

日本海环流研究综述

日本海作为东北亚地区最大的边缘海,是西北太平洋上的重要海区。由于特殊的地理位置和复杂的地形,使得日本海的环流结构呈现独有特征,如日本海内的亚极地锋现象,复杂多变的涡旋,北部形成的深水团等。概述了日本海环流状况,着重介绍了对马海峡、郁陵海盆环流情形和日本海特征水团;总结了目前仍存在的争议问题,如对马暖流源头、对马暖流空间结构等;指出了目前日本海尚待解决的科学问题,如对马暖流流量的长期变化及其原因、东韩暖流消失现象及其机制、日本海特征水的传播路径及其影响因素、日本海的某些变化产生原因及其与全球变化的响应等。     

Rapid Urbanization Induced Extensive Forest Loss to Urban Land in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,China

China has experienced rapid urbanizations with dramatic land cover changes since 1978. Forest loss is one of land cover changes, and it induces various eco-environmental degradation issues. As one of China’s hotspot regions, the Guangdong-Hong KongMacao Greater Bay Area(GBA) has undergone a dramatic urban expansion. To better understand forest dynamics and protect forest ecosystem, revealing the processes, patterns and underlying drivers of forest loss is essential. This study focused on the spatiotemporal evolution and potential driving factors of forest loss in the GBA at regional and city level. The Landsat time-series images from 1987 to2017 were used to derive forest, and landscape metrics and geographic information system(GIS) were applied to implement further spatial analysis. The results showed that: 1) 14.86% of the total urban growth area of the GBA was obtained from the forest loss in1987–2017;meanwhile, the forest loss area of the GBA reached 4040.6 km2, of which 25.60%(1034.42 km2) was converted to urban land;2) the percentages of forest loss to urban land in Dongguan(19.14%), Guangzhou(18.35%) and Shenzhen(15.81%) were higher than those in other cities;3) the forest became increasingly fragmented from 1987–2007, and then the fragmentation decreased from2007 to 2017);4) the landscape responses to forest changes varied with the scale;and 5) some forest loss to urban regions moved from low-elevation and gentle-slope terrains to higher-elevation and steep-slope terrains over time, especially in Shenzhen and Hong Kong.Urbanization and industrialization greatly drove forest loss and fragmentation, and, notably, hillside urban land expansion may have contributed to hillside forest loss. The findings will help policy makers in maintaining the stability of forest ecosystems, and provide some new insights into forest management and conservation.     

2006-2022年黔南州冰雹特征分析

【目的】为了解黔南州的冰雹特征。【方法】利用2006—2022年多普勒天气雷达、常规气象观测资料以及人工影响天气作业站点冰雹观测等资料,采用统计学方法分析了影响黔南州冰雹个例的冰雹直径、降雹持续时间、冰雹日变化、冰雹云移动速度等特征。【结果】黔南州的降雹主要出现在3、4月份,降雹以中冰雹为主,冰雹日变化明显,一天中冰雹主要发生在15时—次日00时,白天17—20时冰雹频发。降雹持续时间短,65%的降雹持续时间在5 min以内。冰雹云单体的移动速度范围为16~102 km·h-1,平均速度50 km·h-1。冰雹云单体的维持时间最短仅为17 min,最长可达290 min,平均122 min。冰雹云移动路径主要以西南路径为主,其次是西北路径和偏西路径。西南路径降雹点主要分布在黔南州中部一线,西北路径降雹点主要分布在黔南州中西部的惠水、长顺,偏西路径的降雹点主要在黔南州中北部。影响黔南的冰雹云源地有境外移入和黔南州境内生成的两类,主要源地在安顺市、黔南州、黔西南州东部和北部、毕节市东部和南部以及贵阳市南部,不同路径的冰雹云源地具有明显的分布差异。【结论】本文研究成果可进一步提高对黔南冰雹特征的认识。     

大型GNSS观测网的并行计算

CGCS2000精化及其全球拓展需要采用最新的模型,处理长期积累的大型GNSS观测网数据,大型GNSS网联合、快速和协同解算是空间基准精化、维持与服务的重要技术方向.在大数据技术背景下,以并行计算、云计算为代表的高性能计算技术逐渐成为大规模数据处理的首选方法.针对海量、多源、异构GNSS数据在解算处理与平差分析等方面面...     

南海北部壳幔结构特征及其地球动力学过程指示

地壳和上地幔结构及其性质对于理解地球浅部构造演化过程具有非常重要的指示作用.南海地区位于亚洲东南部,其构造演化长期以来受到了特提斯和太平洋构造域的控制.晚中生代以来,南海北部经历了主动大陆边缘向被动大陆边缘的演化,并且发生了多期次拉张构造运动,形成了一系列裂陷和盆地.近几年来,地震学探测方面的丰硕成果为理解此过程提供了...