Spatio-temporal regression kriging for modelling urban NO2 concentrations

ABSTRACT

Recently developed urban air quality sensor networks are used to monitor air pollutant concentrations at a fine spatial and temporal resolution. The measurements are however limited to point support. To obtain areal coverage in space and time, interpolation is required. A spatio-temporal regression kriging approach was applied to predict nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) concentrations at unobserved space-time locations in the city of Eindhoven, the Netherlands. Prediction maps were created at 25 m spatial resolution and hourly temporal resolution. In regression kriging, the trend is separately modelled from autocorrelation in the residuals. The trend part of the model, consisting of a set of spatial and temporal covariates, was able to explain 49.2% of the spatio-temporal variability in NO₂ concentrations in Eindhoven in November 2016. Spatio-temporal autocorrelation in the residuals was modelled by fitting a sum-metric spatio-temporal variogram model, adding smoothness to the prediction maps. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed using leave-one-out cross-validation, resulting in a Root Mean Square Error of 9.91 μg m^?3, a Mean Error of ?0.03 μg m^?3 and a Mean Absolute Error of 7.29 μg m^?3. The method allows for easy prediction and visualization of air pollutant concentrations and can be extended to a near real-time procedure.     

Double funnelling in a mature coastal British Columbia forest: spatial patterns of stemflow after infiltration

Many studies have focused on the amount of stemflow in different forests and for different rainfall events, but few studies have focused on how stemflow intensity varies during events or the infiltration of stemflow into the soil. Stemflow may lead to higher water delivery rates at the base of the tree compared with throughfall over the same area and fast and deeper infiltration of this water along roots and other preferential flow pathways. In this study, stemflow amounts and intensities were measured and blue dye experiments were conducted in a mature coniferous forest in coastal British Columbia to examine double funnelling of stemflow. Stemflow accounted for only 1% of precipitation and increased linearly with event total precipitation. Funnelling ratios ranged from less than 1 to almost 20; smaller trees had larger funnelling ratios. Stemflow intensity generally was highest for periods with high‐intensity rainfall later in the event. The maximum stemflow intensities were higher than the maximum precipitation intensities. Dye tracer experiments showed that stemflow infiltrated primarily along roots and was found more frequently at depth than near the soil surface. Lateral flow of stemflow was observed above a dense clay layer for both the throughfall and stemflow experiments. Stemflow appeared to infiltrate deeper (122 cm) than throughfall (85 cm), but this difference was in part a result of site‐specific differences in maximum soil depth. However, the observed high stemflow intensities combined with preferential flow of stemflow may lead to enhanced subsurface stormflow. This suggests that even though stemflow is only a very minor component of the water balance, it may still significantly affect soil moisture, recharge, and runoff generation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate Comparisons and Change Projections for the Northwest Atlantic from Six CMIP5 Models

Abstract

Key physical variables for the Northwest Atlantic (NWA) are examined in the “historical” and two future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) simulations of six Earth System Models (ESMs) available through Phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The variables are air temperature, sea-ice concentration, surface and subsurface ocean temperature and salinity, and ocean mixed-layer depth. Comparison of the historical simulations with observations indicates that the models provide a good qualitative and approximate quantitative representation of many of the large-scale climatological features in the NWA (e.g., annual cycles and spatial patterns). However, the models represent the detailed structure of some important NWA ocean and ice features poorly, such that caution is needed in the use of their projected future changes. Monthly “climate change” fields between the bidecades 1986–2005 and 2046–2065 are described, using ensemble statistics of the changes across the six ESMs. The results point to warmer air temperatures everywhere, warmer surface ocean temperatures in most areas, reduced sea-ice extent and, in most areas, reduced surface salinities and mixed-layer depths. However, the magnitudes of the inter-model differences in the projected changes are comparable to those of the ensemble-mean changes in many cases, such that robust quantitative projections are generally not possible for the NWA.     

Determination of the Concentration of Carbonic Species in Natural Waters: Results from a World‐Wide Proficiency Test

The results of an international interlaboratory proficiency test for the determination of carbonic species are presented. Eight laboratories analysed twelve water samples (four synthetic waters, one lake water, four geothermal waters, one seawater and two petroleum waters) by two methods: (a) individual laboratory analytical procedure and (b) acid–base titration curves in tabular form following a standardised protocol. In case (b), the concentrations of carbonic species were calculated by the organiser using the (1) Hydrologists' method, (2) Geochemists' method and/or (3) initial pH and total alkalinity method. For synthetic waters, the averaged % trueness and precision of measurement of the two methods were (trueness = 7.6, precision = 9.4) and (9.0, 3.4) for total alkalinity, and (6.6, 31.0) and (7.8, 6.1) for carbonic alkalinity, respectively. This indicates that the total alkalinity calculation procedure is in general correct in the individual laboratory method, but the carbonic alkalinity calculation procedure has serious problems. The measurements of total alkalinity for lake and seawaters were in agreement in both the methods; however, the individual laboratory measurement method for geothermal and petroleum waters was conceptually incorrect. Thus, the analytical procedures for the determination of carbonic species were reviewed. To apply the Hydrologists' and/or Geochemists' methods, the location of NaHCO₃EP and H₂CO₃EP is necessary, even for samples with pH lower than that of NaHCO₃EP, and a backward titration curve after complete removal of CO₂ must be performed. The initial pH and total alkalinity method is appropriate where a complete analysis of species that contribute to the alkalinity is known.     

LavAtmos: An open-source chemical equilibrium vaporization code for lava worlds

To date, over 500 short-period rocky planets with equilibrium temperatures above 1500 K have been discovered. Such planets are expected to support magma oceans, providing a direct interface between the interior and the atmosphere. This provides a unique opportunity to gain insight into their interior compositions through atmospheric observations. A key process in doing such work is the vapor outgassing from the lava surface. LavAtmos is an open-source code that calculates the equilibrium chemical composition of vapor above a dry melt for a given composition and temperature. Results show that the produced output is in good agreement with the partial pressures obtained from experimental laboratory data as well as with other similar codes from literature. LavAtmos allows for the modeling of vaporization of a wide range of different mantle compositions of hot rocky exoplanets. In combination with atmospheric chemistry codes, this enables the characterization of interior compositions through atmospheric signatures.     

The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies

This article presents the synthesis of results from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Study 27, an inter-comparison of 18 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. The study investigated the importance of individual mitigation options such as energy intensity improvements, carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, solar and wind power and bioenergy for climate mitigation. Limiting the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration to 450 or 550 ppm CO₂ equivalent by 2100 would require a decarbonization of the global energy system in the 21^st century. Robust characteristics of the energy transformation are increased energy intensity improvements and the electrification of energy end use coupled with a fast decarbonization of the electricity sector. Non-electric energy end use is hardest to decarbonize, particularly in the transport sector. Technology is a key element of climate mitigation. Versatile technologies such as CCS and bioenergy are found to be most important, due in part to their combined ability to produce negative emissions. The importance of individual low-carbon electricity technologies is more limited due to the many alternatives in the sector. The scale of the energy transformation is larger for the 450 ppm than for the 550 ppm CO₂e target. As a result, the achievability and the costs of the 450 ppm target are more sensitive to variations in technology availability.     

Gorilla Tourism in Bwindi Impenetrable National Park,Uganda: An Actor-Network Perspective

This article performs actor-network theory (ANT) to examine the development of gorilla tourism at Bwindi Impenetrable National Park, Uganda. We depict a number of translations in which gorillas were designated and enrolled as coexisting with local livelihood practices, as “trophies” in the hunting network, “man's closest neighbor” in the scientific network, “endangered species” in the conservation network, and finally, through habituation processes, became part of the tourism network. These five versions of the “gorilla” network show how gorillas are shaped in and by the relations in which they reside. By examining Bwindi in terms of ANT's notions of ordering, materiality, and multiplicity, we not only show how gorilla tourism has gained permanence and popularity, but also draw attention to new ways of thinking about actors and agency in tourism, conservation, and development.     

GPS-derived orbits for the GOCE satellite

The first ESA (European Space Agency) Earth explorer core mission GOCE (Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer) was launched on 17 March 2009 into a sun-synchronous dusk–dawn orbit with an exceptionally low initial altitude of about 280 km. The onboard 12-channel dual-frequency GPS (Global Positioning System) receiver delivers 1 Hz data, which provides the basis for precise orbit determination (POD) for such a very low orbiting satellite. As part of the European GOCE Gravity Consortium the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern and the Department of Earth Observation and Space Systems are responsible for the orbit determination of the GOCE satellite within the GOCE High-level Processing Facility. Both quick-look (rapid) and very precise orbit solutions are produced with typical latencies of 1 day and 2 weeks, respectively. This article summarizes the special characteristics of the GOCE GPS data, presents POD results for about 2 months of data, and shows that both latency and accuracy requirements are met. Satellite Laser Ranging validation shows that an accuracy of 4 and 7 cm is achieved for the reduced-dynamic and kinematic Rapid Science Orbit solutions, respectively. The validation of the reduced-dynamic and kinematic Precise Science Orbit solutions is at a level of about 2 cm.     

Statistical characterization of composite protection levels for GPS

A statistical characterization is presented of Global Positioning System (GPS) user range error as a normally distributed random variable with non-zero mean over the length of the aircraft precision approach operation, correlated from one GPS measurement epoch to another and from one satellite to another. This leads directly to modeling GPS error in the position domain as multivariate normal with non-zero mean. Based on this model, a vertical composite protection level VPL_c and a horizontal composite protection level HPL_c are each calculated as scalar values from a univariate normal distribution displaced from the origin by the worst-case position domain bias combination possible, given the maximum possible individual satellite bias magnitudes and the satellite geometry. A method is then presented by which exact values—that is, values accurate to a user-defined error tolerance and consistent with statistical assumptions—of VPL_c and HPL_c are obtained, and by which computationally efficient approximations may be evaluated. A statistical quadratic form under the multivariate normal distribution is used to derive a new class of protection levels based on the probability enclosed within a radius defined in two or more dimensions. A central Chi-square representation of this quadratic form is also presented and is incorporated into a six-step computational procedure for the two-dimensional composite radial protection level RPL_c. This procedure is extended to the spherical protection level (SPL_c) and the ellipsoidal protection level (EPL_c).