Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.     

Indications of a climate effect on Mediterranean fisheries

Using the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Mediterranean capture fisheries production dataset in conjunction with global and Mediterranean sea surface temperatures, we investigated trends in fisheries landings and landings per unit of effort of commercially important marine organisms, in relation to temperature oscillations. In addition to the overall warming trend, a temperature shift was detected in the Mediterranean Sea in the late 1990s. Fisheries landings fluctuations were examined for the most abundant commercial species (59 species) and showed significant year-to-year correlations with temperature for nearly 60 % of the cases. From these, the majority (~70 %) were negatively related and showed a reduction of 44 % on average. Increasing trends were found, mainly in the landings of species with short life spans, which seem to have benefited from the increase in water temperature. Τhe effect of oceanic warming is apparent in most species or groups of species sharing ecological (e.g. small and medium pelagic, demersal fish) or taxonomic (e.g. cephalopods, crustaceans) traits. A landings-per-unit-of-effort (LPUE) proxy, using data from the seven Mediterranean European Union member states, also showed significant correlation with temperature fluctuations for six out of the eight species examined, indicating the persistence of temperature influence on landings when the fishing effect is accounted for. The speed of response of marine landings to the warming of the Mediterranean Sea possibly shows both the sensitivity and the vulnerable state of the fish stocks and indicates that climate should be examined together with fisheries as a factor shaping stock fluctuations.     

Contribution of electrical tomography methods in geotechnical investigations at Mavropigi lignite open pit mine,Northern Greece

In this paper, the application of 2D and 3D electrical resistivity methods in geotechnical investigations is explored through a case study in Northern Greece. These two methods were employed at a lignite surface mining operation where fracture zones and discontinuities have been recently observed close to the pit boundaries. The main aim of the geophysical survey was to estimate the inclination of the contact between the Neogene and Schist/Carbonate formations near the southern limits of the pit, as well as to estimate the thickness of the carbonate rocks on top of the Schist formations to evaluate the stability of the southern slopes. Synthetic data were initially generated to help plan an efficient electrical tomography survey, in a region with complex geology and irregular terrain. Three configurations (Wenner–Schlumberger and dipole–dipole or pole–dipole) proved essential in such conditions and helped improving the resolution of the resistivity section. The sections were then calibrated by boreholes. Finally, the geophysical survey provided invaluable data regarding the geometry of the bedrock and possible faults, which was essential for the slope stability calculations.     

Temporal evolution and compositional signatures of two supervolcanic systems recorded in zircons from Mangakino volcanic centre,New Zealand

Mangakino, the oldest rhyolitic caldera centre delineated in the Taupo Volcanic Zone of New Zealand, generated two very large (super-sized) ignimbrite eruptions, the 1.21 ± 0.04 Ma >500 km³ Ongatiti and ~1.0 Ma ~1,200 km³ Kidnappers events, the latter of which was followed after a short period of erosion by the ~200 km³ Rocky Hill eruption. We present U/Pb ages and trace-element analyses on zircons from pumice clasts from these three eruptions by Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (SIMS) using SHRIMP-RG instruments to illustrate the evolution of the respective magmatic systems. U–Pb age spectra from the Ongatiti imply growth of the magmatic system over ~250 kyr, with a peak of crystallisation around 1.32 Ma, ~100 kyr prior to eruption. The zircons are inferred to have then remained stable in a mush with little crystallisation and/or dissolution before later rejuvenation of the system at the lead-in to eruption. The paired Kidnappers and Rocky Hill eruptions have U–Pb zircon ages and geochemical signatures that suggest they were products of a common system grown over ~200 kyr. The Kidnappers and Rocky Hill samples show similar weakly bimodal age spectra, with peaks at 1.1 and 1.0 Ma, suggesting that an inherited antecrystic population was augmented by crystals grown at ages within uncertainty of the eruption age. In the Kidnappers, this younger age peak is dominantly seen in needle-shaped low U grains with aspect ratios of up to 18. In all three deposits, zircon cores show larger ranges and higher absolute concentrations of trace elements than zircon rims, consistent with zircon crystallisation from evolving melts undergoing crystal fractionation involving plagioclase and amphibole. Abundances and ratios of many trace elements frequently show variations between different sectors within single grains, even where there is no visible sector zoning in cathodoluminescence (CL) imaging. Substitution mechanisms, as reflected in the molar (Sc + Y + REE³⁺)/P ratio, differ in the same growth zone between the sides (along a-axis and b-axis: values approaching 1.0) and tips (c-axis: values between 1.5 and 5.0) of single crystals. These observations have implications for the use of zircons for tracking magmatic processes, particularly in techniques where CL zonation within crystals is not assessed and small analytical spot sizes cannot be achieved. These observations also limit applicability of the widely used Ti-in-zircon thermometer. The age spectra for the Ongatiti and Kidnappers/Rocky Hill samples indicate that both magmatic systems were newly built in the time-breaks after respective previous large eruptions from Mangakino. Trace element variations defining three-component mixing suggest that zircons, sourced from multiple melts, contributed to the population in each system.     

An analysis and comparison of observed Pleistocene South Carolina (USA) shoreline elevations with predicted elevations derived from Marine Oxygen Isotope Stages

Geological maps of South Carolina, covering > 6800 km², confirm the existence of eight preserved Pleistocene shorelines above current sea level: Marietta (+ 42.6 m), Wicomico (+ 27.4 m), Penholoway (+ 21.3 m), Ladson (+ 17.4 m), Ten Mile Hill (+ 10.7 m), Pamlico (+ 6.7 m), Princess Anne (+ 5.2 m), and Silver Bluff (+ 3 m). Current geochronologic data suggest that these eight shorelines correlate with Marine Oxygen Isotope Stages (MIS) as follows: Marietta—older than MIS 77; Wicomico—MIS 55–45; Penholoway—MIS 19 or 17; Ladson—MIS 11; Ten Mile Hill—MIS 7; Pamlico—MIS 5; Princess Anne—MIS 5; and Silver Bluff—MIS 5 or 3. Except for the MIS 5e Pamlico, and possibly the MIS 11 Ladson, the South Carolina elevations are higher than predicted by isotope proxy-based reconstructions. The < 4 m of total relief from the Pamlico to the Silver Bluff shoreline in South Carolina, for which other reconstructions suggest an expected relief of ~ 80 m, illustrates the lack of match. Our results suggest that processes affecting either post-depositional changes in shoreline elevations or the creation of proxy sea-level estimates must be considered before using paleo sea-level position on continental margins.     

Remote sensing- and GIS-based runoff modeling with the effect of land-use changes (a case study of Cochin corporation)

A study was conducted to estimate the runoff in urbanized zone using Soil Conservation Services Curve Number (SCS-CN) method through remote sensing and GIS techniques. In this study, the region was identified as Cochin Corporation (Kerala State, India) with an aerial extent of 96.44 km². The spatial and non-spatial data were collected from different sources, and the thematic layers of soil hydrologic group and land-use maps were prepared and overlaid with one other. The overlaid output results were assigned by curve numbers with respect to soil and land-use categories, and the CN map was prepared with the help of Visual Basic (VB) language in ArcGIS platform. Through supervised classifications, 13 different land-use classes were identified from Quickbird data for the year of 2005 and 2010. The most prominent land-use classes were water bodies, residential, mixed crops, commercial and industrial, and 3 types of soil hydrologic groups were identified namely A, B, and C categories. The B group is most prominent occupying 60 km² of the study area. The CN map shows the ranges that 92–100 is the major CN area with high runoff potential zone of the study region. At the final stage, the runoff was estimated by the maximum successive rainfall received in this study area in two different years—2005 and 2010 along with their land-use pattern. The runoff model is applied for temporal variation in land-use change, and impact of runoff was studied. The study area showed significant changes in land-use pattern between 2005 and 2010 particularly in the land-use change from agricultural into industrial, commercial, and residential (high density). The area covered by the highest runoff depth with the range of 92–100 CN values increased from 43.87 to 45.32 km² from 2005 to 2010. The volume of runoff was increased from 135.56 to 141.49 Mm³ from 2005 to 2010 due to the land-use change pattern.     

Evolution of the mass function of dark matter haloes

We use a high-resolution ΛCDM numerical simulation to calculate the mass function of dark matter haloes down to the scale of dwarf galaxies, back to a redshift of 15, in a  50 h ⁻¹ Mpc  volume containing 80 million particles. Our low-redshift results allow us to probe low-σ density fluctuations significantly beyond the range of previous cosmological simulations. The Sheth & Tormen mass function provides an excellent match to all of our data except for redshifts of 10 and higher, where it overpredicts halo numbers increasingly with redshift, reaching roughly 50 per cent for the  10¹⁰–10¹¹ M_⊙  haloes sampled at redshift 15. Our results confirm previous findings that the simulated halo mass function can be described solely by the variance of the mass distribution, and thus has no explicit redshift dependence. We provide an empirical fit to our data that corrects for the overprediction of extremely rare objects by the Sheth & Tormen mass function. This overprediction has implications for studies that use the number densities of similarly rare objects as cosmological probes. For example, the number density of high-redshift  ( z ≃ 6) QSOs  , which are thought to be hosted by haloes at 5σ peaks in the fluctuation field, are likely to be overpredicted by at least a factor of 50 per cent. We test the sensitivity of our results to force accuracy, starting redshift and halo-finding algorithm.     

Axial kinematic response of end‐bearing piles to P waves

Kinematic pile–soil interaction under vertically impinging seismic P waves is revisited through a novel continuum elastodynamic solution of the Tajimi type. The proposed model simulates the steady‐state kinematic response of a cylindrical end‐bearing pile embedded in a homogeneous viscoelastic soil stratum over a rigid base, subjected to vertically propagating harmonic compressional waves. Closed‐form solutions are obtained for the following: (i) the displacement field in the soil and along the pile; (ii) the kinematic Winkler moduli (i.e., distributed springs and dashpots) along the pile; (iii) equivalent, depth‐independent, Winkler moduli to match the motion at the pile head. The solution for displacements is expressed in terms of dimensionless transfer functions relating the motion of the pile head to the free‐field surface motion and the rock motion. It is shown that (i) a pile foundation may significantly alter (possibly amplify) the vertical seismic excitation transmitted to the base of a structure and (ii) Winkler moduli pertaining to kinematic loading differ from those for inertial loading. Simple approximate expressions for kinematic Winkler moduli are derived for use in applications. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of bootstrap confidence intervals for an ANN model of a karstic aquifer response

Following many applications artificial neural networks (ANNs) have found in hydrology, a question has been rising for quantification of the output uncertainty. A pre‐optimized ANN simulated the hydraulic head change at two observation wells, having as input hydrological and meteorological parameters. In order to calculate confidence intervals (CI) for the ANN output two bootstrap methods were examined namely bootstrap percentile and BCa (Bias‐Corrected and accelerated). The actual coverage of the CI was compared to the theoretical coverage for different certainty levels as a means of examining the method's reliability. The results of this work support the idea that the bootstrap methods provide a simple tool for confidence interval computation of ANNs. Comparing the two methods, the percentile requires fewer calculations and yields narrower intervals with similar actual coverage to that of BCa. Overall, the actual coverage was proved lower than desired when not modeled points were present in the data subset. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.